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HANDICAPPING FEATURE APRIL 25, 2007 Pace figures, favorites and betting strategy by Tony Kelzenberg In a previous article on using BRIS Pace figures, we settled on using early speed horses with large pace figure advantages to find overlays. In today's article, we will identify short-priced favorites that look like solid plays based on their Speed figures alone, but are vulnerable because of their E2 Pace numbers. EXAMPLE 1 – Race 3, Gulfstream Park, Alw $46,000n1x, 3yo, 7.5f At this distance on the dirt at Gulfstream, horses are expected to run an extended one-turn sprint out of a chute. Because of potential traffic problems, it is considered a negative to draw the rail. Unfortunately 2-1 favorite Rescue Party (Monarchos) had both the rail and only competitive pace figures, an invitation to look for value elsewhere. The other horses to consider for the win in this race were Frosty Secret (Put it Back) and Deadly Dealer (Concerto). Here's how the main speed horses matched up:
What happened? Rescue Party hesitated at the start and basically lost all chance, as can happen when a horse gets stuck on the rail in a long-chute sprint. Deadly Dealer broke very sharply and went gate-to-wire for a big win in his first start for the Todd Pletcher barn. Frosty Secret was my main play, with that 101 Pace figure and overlaid odds, but he hit the gate and ran into a better horse on the day in Deadly Dealer, tiring late to lose second to the off the pace Boogie Boggs (Dixie Union) – unfortunately costing me a nice Deadly Dealer/Frosty Secret exacta score. Wagering Strategy Frosty Secret was on top of 65 percent of my tickets. Since both of Deadly Dealer's two career races were on sloppy tracks, I questioned whether he would be as effective on a fast track. I wanted Deadly Dealer to "prove it to me." Plus, Frosty Secret had shown the ability to rate effectively, earning a career-best Speed rating (95) in his previous start. With 9-1 on a logical top selection, it was a time to be aggressive. In case Deadly Dealer was the goods, I used him on the other 35 percent of my tickets. The 3-1 odds on Deadly Dealer were still much better than the 2-1 price on Rescue Party, who appeared to have a lot going against him. Deadly Dealer started off a Pick 3 which paid $107 for a $1, and it allowed me to make a small profit on this race. EXAMPLE 2 – Race 5, Santa Anita, Mdn $63,000, 3yo, 8.5f Santa Anita runs most of their two turn races on the main track at one mile and 1 1/16 miles. At the mile distance, the starting gate is placed so close to the clubhouse turn that horses in post 7 and beyond are usually compromised because of lost ground. But even with an extra 100 yards to run to the turn, you don't want to be in a wide gate at Santa Anita going 8 1/2 furlongs. A quick check of the data from the BRIS Track Bias Stats says it all – horses from post 8 and up had an impact value of 0.33 and only a 2 percent average win rate. That sample's from 44 races over nine weeks of racing. The 4-5 favorite and $2.5 million yearling Pavarotti (A.P. Indy) was breaking from post 10 with a solid 91 Speed figure in his debut. Was he look unbeatable? I thought his main competition was Albertus Maximus (Albert the Great), a horse that comes from a very successful Southern California-raced female family and was bred by his current owners. Let's see how the horses matched up.
A check of the BRIS Track Bias Stats show that posts 4-7 are winning more that 45 percent of their fair share, with an average rate of 23 percent (vs. the 2% average rate for posts 8 and up) at 1 1/16 miles. "Albertus" was trying two turns for the first time, but his sire's AWD (Average Winning Distance) of 7.5f is very stout, by 21st century American standards. This race represented a prime betting opportunity. What Happened? Albertus tracked a reasonable pace set by no-hoper Gandolf (Belong to Me), was asked for run at the top of the stretch to reach the lead and then repulsed a nice bid from Pavarotti at the sixteenth pole to win by daylight. Wagering Strategy I spread my action on win and Pick 3 tickets. Pavarotti looked vulnerable, but he still wound up completing a $11.20 exacta ($1).
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