American Oaks
TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS
| AMERICAN OAKS INVITATIONAL S.
(G1), 8TH-HOL, $750,000, 3YO, F, 1 1/4MT, 3:55 P.M. PDT, 7-2 | ||||
| PP | HORSE | TRAINER | JOCKEY | WT |
| 1 |
ASAHI RISING (JPN) |
MASAAKI KOGA |
ESPINOZA V | 121 |
| 2 |
SOL MI FA (IRE) |
CASSIDY JAMES |
VALENZUELA P A | 121 |
| 3 |
ARRAVALE |
BENSON MACDONALD |
NAKATANI C S | 121 |
| 4 |
GALILEO'S STAR (IRE) | CASSIDY JAMES | ARROYO N JR | 121 |
| 5 |
ATTIMA (GB) |
CANANI JULIO C |
FLORES D R | 121 |
| 6 |
FOXYSOX (GB) |
GAINES CARLA |
BISONO A | 121 |
| 7 |
WAIT A WHILE |
PLETCHER TODD A |
GOMEZ G K | 121 |
| 8 |
PROXENIA (GB) |
GALLAGHER PATRICK |
SOLIS A | 121 |
The $750,000 American Oaks Invitational (G1) at Hollywood Park on Sunday has
established itself as one of the marquee events on the racing calendar, bringing
together top contenders from across the United States along with a strong
contingent of international invaders. While this field of eight sophomore
fillies may not be as deep as in years past, lacking representatives from Europe
as well as any established turf performers from the East Coast, it still
features a couple of potentially high-class individuals who should fight it out
to the finish in the 1 1/4-mile turf contest.
We'll side with the cream of the California crop, ATTIMA (GB) (Zafonic), who
looked like a star in the making when capturing the Honeymoon Breeders' Cup H.
(G2) over this course about one month ago. The Julio Canani trainee exuded
talent in her wire-to-wire score over multiple Grade 3 winner FOXYSOX (GB)
(Foxhound), PROXENIA (GB) (Pursuit of Love) and GALILEO'S STAR (Ire) (Galileo
[Ire]), relaxing beautifully on her unpressured lead and quickening well to land
the spoils. Her 1 1/4-length margin of victory did not truly reflect her
convincing superiority, as her rider never asked her a serious question, and she
won without having to change gears. Attima is far from one-dimensional, however,
as in her U.S. debut she had tracked the pace in second before sweeping to
conquer in a one-mile allowance. Drawn in post 5 here, she projects a stalking trip
either between or outside rivals, and new jockey David Flores should seize
control of affairs at the right time. There is a distance question, since Attima
has not raced beyond the 1 1/8 miles of the Honeymoon, but with potent stamina
influence *Vaguely Noble and the inimitable Mill Reef appearing close up in her
female line, we think she'll stay the trip.
Her chief obstacle may be the Japanese filly, ASAHI RISING (Jpn) (Royal
Touch), who is exiting a solid third in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (Jpn-G1). The
dark bay took the lead in the stretch but failed to last the demanding 1 1/2
miles at Tokyo and was caught late, beaten a total of one length. She's the only
one in this group to have raced beyond 1 1/8 miles, and she'll enjoy the shorter
10 furlongs here. Note that the three fillies who had finished in front of her
in her previous start, the Oka Sho (Japanese One Thousand Guineas) (Jpn-G1), all
wound up behind her in the Oaks, so she's likely progressing. Victor Espinoza
had committed to ride Asahi Rising while Attima had been questionable for this
spot, so we're not going to read too much into his choice. Considering that
Asahi Rising's got plenty of early speed and will break from the rail, we suspect
Espinoza will gun her to the front and try to take it all the way.
Honeymoon fourth Galileo's Star ranks as the most likely to improve
considerably, and at 20-1 odds in the morning line, may be worth a flyer as our
longshot special. Making both her U.S. and sophomore debut for Jim Cassidy in
the Honeymoon, the chestnut ran evenly for fourth, 7 1/4 lengths adrift of
Attima. Cassidy has mastered the art of using the Honeymoon as a prep, having
won the 2004 American Oaks with Ticker Tape (GB) (Royal Applause [GB]) and
recording a third in 2005 with Singhalese (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]), both of whom had
previously run fourth in the Honeymoon. Not only does Galileo's Star figure to
show a lot more her second time around, but she is also bred to excel at 1 1/4
miles and beyond. Her English form as a juvenile isn't particularly thrilling,
but her connections thought enough of her to take on colts in the Washington
Singer S., in which she finished a respectable second to another filly.
Galileo's Star turned in a terrific six-furlong drill last weekend and could be
sitting on a strong effort. Norberto Arroyo Jr. picks up the mount.
The powerful Todd Pletcher stable sends out WAIT A WHILE (Maria's Mon), one
of the best of her generation on the main track with far and away the best BRIS
Speed ratings in the field. The burning question is whether the gray can
transfer her ability to the grass, a surface she hasn't tried since impressively
breaking her maiden as a juvenile on the Belmont Park turf. Pletcher has
attempted a couple of turf starts since then, but both races wound up switching
to the main track. That's what happened in her last outing, an easy 4 1/2-length
score in the off-the-turf Sands Point S. (G3), worth a 102 Speed figure and a
110 BRIS Late Pace rating. At a skimpy 5-2 in the morning line, you've got to be
convinced she'll prove as good on the lawn.
Cassidy's other entrant, SOL MI FA (Ire) (Distant Music), rallied to win the
Bay Meadows Breeders' Cup Oaks in her U.S. and sophomore bow. The dark bay, out
of Prix de Diane Hermes (French Oaks) (Fr-G1) queen Sil Sila (Marju), figures to
relish the 1 1/4 miles, yet she may find this group a bit too salty. Ditto for Canadian shipper ARRAVALE (Arch),
who has won all three of her career starts on
the turf, most recently a 3 3/4-length victory in the Alywow S. at Woodbine. The
dark bay should handle the distance but will be meeting the toughest field she's
ever faced.
Foxysox deserves credit for her opportunism to rattle off three
straight stakes scores this spring, notably the Senorita S. (G3) and Providencia
S. (G3). She was summarily dismissed by Attima last time, though, and it's
difficult to see her reversing the result here. The same can be said for
Proxenia, who's twice finished behind Attima.
| TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: | 1st-ATTIMA (GB) | |
| 2nd-ASAHI RISING (Jpn) | ||
| 3rd-GALILEO'S STAR (Ire) |
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