Belmont Report

BELMONT REPORT

JUNE 4, 2009

by James Scully

The Belmont S. (G1) discussion starts with MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone), the

2-1 favorite on the morning line for the 141st running of the 1 1/2-mile

classic. It's been quite the journey for the diminutive gelding.

Named the Canadian champion two-year-old based on his exploits on Polytrack

last season, Mine That Bird was transferred to Chip Woolley and sent to New

Mexico following a last-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He

opened 2009 with a pair of less-than-stellar performances, finishing second in

the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Derby, but still had the graded

earnings to make the Kentucky Derby (G1) field based on his victory in the 2009

Grey S. (Can-G3). He was overlooked at 50-1 over the sloppy track at Churchill

Downs.

Mine That Bird dropped several lengths behind the next-to-last runner

entering the clubhouse turn in the "Run for the Roses" and continued to lag far

behind along the backstretch. With Calvin Borel at the helm, he unleashed a

scintillating rail rally on the far turn to reach contention and blew past the

leaders in the stretch, drawing off to an amazing 6 3/4-length upset. The

surprise result had all the makings of a fluke, but Mine That Bird backed it up

two weeks later over a fast track in the Preakness S. (G1).

At Pimlico, Mine That Bird wasn't able to save ground, closing wide on the

far turn and into the stretch, and was momentarily checked in traffic turning

for home. He still offered another terrific late burst but ran out of room at

the wire, falling a length short to Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro), who

enjoyed a dream trip and was able to get away from her rivals at the top of the

stretch before barely holding on. Mine That Bird still managed to flatter

himself in defeat.

The focus now shifts to Saturday's "Test of the Champion," and Mine That Bird

will be a deserving favorite over the expansive oval at Belmont Park. Listed as

the 2-1 choice on the morning line, his odds could be much lower come post time.

A big question is how much did the Derby and Preakness take out of him? The

Triple Crown takes a toll, but it's all a matter of speculation as to how much.

Mine That Bird certainly appeared in fine fettle when breezing four furlongs in

:50 at Churchill on Monday morning, recording a final eighth of a mile in :11 3/5

prior to galloping out strongly in 1:02 1/5 and 1:15. The work made

Borel excited.

Borel will bring plenty of confidence to the Belmont. After winning both the

Derby and Kentucky Oaks (G1) at the beginning of May, he kept his momentum going

two weeks later aboard Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, and he's remained hot

in the interim. Borel went after the Memorial Day weekend programs at Churchill

with a gusto, making a battle of it with Julien Leparoux for leading rider

honors when capturing 13 races over a three-day period (May 23-25).

While Mine That Bird supporters can claim that the jockey switch cost him the

Preakness, his connections remained loyal. They realized that Borel gives them

their best chance and always wanted him back.

"You watch when he comes out on the track with (exercise rider) Charlie

(Figueroa) or anybody else and he has his head up and is looking around,"

Woolley explained. "With Calvin, he just drops his neck and knows it is time

to go to work. I think we are in good shape going into the Belmont."

There's a chemistry factor going on.

Humble to a fault, Borel is now showing some bravado, openly predicting

victory following Mine That Bird's sharp workout on Monday. "We're gonna win, no

questions asked," Borel stated. And he remained confident when meeting with the

media on Tuesday in Manhattan, telling the large gathering at Madison Square

Garden, "He'll win -- that's what we're here for."

He has me believing in the "Bird." The Derby winner is the fastest horse in

the field based on BRIS Speed ratings (110 career-best), and the Belmont seems best-suited to his breeding. Sire Birdstone turned in his greatest

performance in the 2004 edition, denying Smarty Jones the Triple Crown with a

one-length upset, and Mine That Bird could get rolling in the sweeping turns of "Big

Sandy."

Rest of the Contenders

CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) is the second-choice on the morning line at

3-1 and exits a commendable 3 3/4-length score over the track in the May 9 Peter

Pan S. (G2). Three-for-three on dirt, the Virginia-bred colt also captured the

seven-furlong Futurity S. (G2) at Belmont last September. Sidelined over the

winter by an injury, the Edward Evans' homebred finished a disappointing seventh

when making a belated three-year-old debut in the Blue Grass S. (G1). His

connections contributed the setback to the synthetic track, but it was the

colt's first effort at two turns.

Charitable Man figures to have a tactical advantage with his speed. A

front-running maiden winner, he tracked wicked fractions in the Peter Pan before

pouncing, but there is very little pace in the Belmont field. He could wind up

showing the way at a moderate tempo, or he figures to be sitting a close second

under Alan Garcia.

DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song) is another top win contender based upon the

promise he displayed at Gulfstream Park earlier this year. He opened his racing

career in January with a smart 5 3/4-length win and followed with an

ultra-impressive, nine-furlong allowance victory that netted him a 107 BRIS

Speed rating. In the Florida Derby (G1), the gray colt offered an excellent

rally on the far turn to reach contention but got out-finished by Quality Road

(Elusive Quality), who may have been the Derby favorite if not sidelined by a

quarter-crack.

After stumbling at the start of the Derby and getting checked repeatedly in a

congested pack approaching the first turn, Dunkirk ultimately spit the bit and

checked in 11th. That race should serve as a good learning experience. He owns

more tactical speed than he's being given credit for and figures to sit a good

stalking trip in midpack with John Velazquez.

CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) was pinched at the start of the Derby and

ground out a fifth-place finish from off the pace while making his first start

on a conventional dirt track. He's been freshened since then by Jerry

Hollendorfer and is eligible to run better. Bred to relish a fast track, the

Grade 3 winner appears to be training forwardly in preparation and will pick up

the services of Garrett Gomez.

SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) broke his maiden three starts back and stepped up

with a top-class showing when making his first start against winners in the

Arkansas Derby (G2), rallying boldly for third. He lacked seasoning when facing

18 rivals on Derby Day, but the chestnut colt gave a fine account of himself in

sixth, losing a lot of ground while wide on both turns. Trainer Tim Ice wisely

freshened his charge for the Belmont, and Summer Bird may continue to show more.

FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) is the best hope of two entrants from D.

Wayne Lukas. Runner-up in the Lane's End S. (G2) over Polytrack, the bay colt

was no factor in the Arkansas Derby or Kentucky Derby, but he suddenly found his

form in the Preakness, rallying for fourth-place honors. The added distance

doesn't look like a detriment, and Flying Private deserves some consideration

for the bottom of the exotics.

MR. HOT STUFF (Tiznow) is an intriguing longshot. A full brother to multiple

Grade 1 winner Colonel John, the WinStar homebred owns only a maiden win, but

the late-developing colt displayed promise when finishing third in the Santa

Anita Derby (G1) and Sham S. (G3). He trained forwardly on dirt for the Derby,

but never fired over the sloppy track when 15th. Colonel John ran well below

expectations in the 2008 Derby, but he moved forward significantly in his second

dirt start, capturing the Travers S. (G1). Mr. Hot Stuff will look to do the

same.

MINER'S ESCAPE (Mineshaft), who along with BRAVE VICTORY (Lion Heart) is one

of two outsiders trained by two-time Belmont winner Nick Zito, may come out

winging it from the start under Jose Lezcano. Zito upset last year's Belmont in

wire-to-wire fashion with Da' Tara (Tiznow), and Miner's Escape exits a

front-running win in the Federico Tesio S.

Peter Pan third-placer Brave Victory will likely want no part of the

12-furlong distance, and LUV GOV (Ten Most Wanted) is probably in too deep. The

Lukas trainee needed 10 starts and a sloppy track to break his maiden, and he

was no factor when eighth in the Preakness.

Analysis

After discounting his chances last week, I've come to my senses with Mine That Bird.

The unproven competition is a big reason. Charitable Man may have been

visually impressive last time out, but he's never earned big Speed ratings while

defeating questionable rivals. And I don't like the fact that he's never won

around two turns. Despite an encouraging pedigree, the 1 1/2-mile distance may

be a problem. Dunkirk is even a

bigger question mark. He lacks a stakes victory, and all of his wins have come

at Gulfstream Park. The lightly raced colt may not be ready for his best effort

at Saturday's marathon distance.

I don't see much incentive in taking a short price with either, and the

Belmont is ripe for an upset if Mine That Bird falters.

For me, though, it's all about the little gelding and Borel. The 42-year-old

Cajun will seek to become the first jockey to sweep all three

Triple Crown races in the same year with different horses, and he'll be counting

on a big turn of foot to accomplish the task. Mine That Bird won't be as

far back early while traveling in the last flight of runners on Saturday, and

I'll look for him to kick it in like he did in the Derby and Preakness.

I'll make a straight win wager on Mine That Bird and look for value in the exotics over Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff.

Enjoy the Belmont!