Breeders' Cup Classic

BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

PREVIEWS

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC (G1),

12TH-SA, $5,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 8:35PM, 11-2

The $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic lost a starter when Ron the Greek was

scratched Thursday due to a foot abscess, but it's still a terrific field of 11

in the 1 1/4-mile race.

Favoritism will belong to Game On Dude, who lost all chance last year when

breaking slowly and wound up a disappointing seventh as the 6-5 favorite. We're

expecting him to break better this year and respect the chances of the

high-class gelding, but there is the opportunity for value with a horse that's

done it before.

1ST -- FORT LARNED was overlooked at 9-1 in last year's Classic following a

well-beaten third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He wasn't the sharpest performer

in his final start for this year's Classic, allowing a sizable lead to shrink

considerably in the final furlong, and has dropped three of five starts this

season (albeit one setback when he lost jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. at the

start).

Detractors believe Fort Larned isn't the same horse this time around and we

welcome that opinion -- the five-year-old is listed at 6-1 on the morning line

and we would love to see his price upward. But we heartily disagree with the

assertion.

Fort Larned earned the top BRIS Speed rating this year for any horse in the

Classic field when posting an impressive 6 1/4-length victory in the June 15

Stephen Foster three starts back, equaling his career-best in last year's

Classic with a whopping 114. Trainer Ian Wilkes eased up in the bay son of E

Dubai's preparation for last year's Classic (a one-paced effort in the Jockey

Club) and did the same this year.

But the trainer knows how to tighten the screws for big races, working Fort

Larned three times in a nine-day period recently, the last two sharp

five-furlong drills, and we expect to see the horse show up with his best

Saturday.

Thursday's card at Santa Anita was favoring speed and that's Fort Larned's

calling card -- he's drawn inside of Game On Dude in post 7 and will break

running with Hernandez. Does he like the track at Santa Anita? Well, he was

cruising while posting fast splits last year (half-mile in :46 2/5 and a mile in

1:34 3/5) and finished full of run. The 10-furlong distance is right up his

alley and we like him wire to wire.

2ND -- GAME ON DUDE can sit second behind the top choice and last year's top

two finishers (Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man) ran like a yo-yo the entire way.

We'll look for the same result this year.

Game On Dude is unbeaten in six starts since the 2012 Classic fiasco,

including major wins at the 10-furlong distance in the Santa Anita Handicap,

Hollywood Gold Cup and Pacific Classic, but those races came against suspect

competition. He's facing much better rivals in this spot, but we won't

underestimate the son of Awesome Again's affinity for the track (seven for

eight) and hard-trying nature. He posted a commendable second in the 2011

Classic at Churchill Downs after dueling on the front end.

Mike Smith, the all-time winningest rider in Breeders' Cup history, has the

mount and Game On Dude runs well fresh. We like the move by Bob Baffert to

bypass the September 28 Awesome Again (which the gelding had captured the last

two years) and train him up to the race off of a 69-day layoff. Game On Dude

looks very capable.

3RD -- FLAT OUT will make his third consecutive appearance in the Classic and

finished a sneaky third last year following an extremely wide trip. He entered

the last two Classics off of victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, essentially

peaking in those performances, but the seven-year-old horse wound up an even

third in the race this year and that could benefit the Bill Mott charge.

His BRIS numbers are strong and Flat Out will offer some appeal as an upset

candidate (12-1 morning line). We're concerned that could leave himself too much

to do in the stretch, but will look for him to come running late for part.

Others: PALACE MALICE exits a second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and could

sit a good trip just off the speed in the Classic. The three-year-old faces a

tall task against elders in this spot, but his BRIS numbers are on par with most

of these rivals and we won't dismiss him from top three consideration.

DECLARATION OF WAR figures to be finishing up strongly if he takes to dirt for

conditioner Aidan O'Brien. The multiple Group 1 winner has the pedigree to make

a smooth transition (by War Front), but it will be interesting to see how far

back the late runner is during the early stages. We'll still include him

underneath on some tickets. MUCHO MACHO MAN finished second in last year's

Classic and exits a romping victory in the Awesome Again, netting a 113 Speed

rating. However, he seldom strings together massive efforts and doesn't figure

to enjoy the same prime trip that benefited him last year. We won't dissuade any

one from using him underneath, but are inclined to take a stand against.