Breeders' Cup Feature

BREEDERS' CUP FEATURE

OCTOBER 13, 2012

by James Scully

The final preps are in the books for most Breeders' Cup horses and this is a

good time to take a look at the prospective fields.

I will begin with my early thoughts on Saturday's championship races.

Classic: Game on Dude will be a clear favorite in the 1 1/4-mile

centerpiece event, the $5 million Classic, and there is little separating the

next five or six contenders.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, Game on Dude is five for five on the

dirt track at Santa Anita, posting a convincing 3 1/4-length victory in the

Grade 1 Awesome Again most recently, and owns terrific BRIS Speed numbers. The

gelding is always a front-running threat but can race close to the pace if

needed. And he will have the services of southern California's leading rider,

Rafael Bejarano.

"This horse is just getting better and better, and when he gets on dirt, he's

a different horse," Baffert confidently stated following the September 29

Awesome Again.

The only real question is the 10-furlong distance; Game on Dude surrendered

the lead in deep stretch of last year's Classic, finishing nearly two lengths

back of longshot Drosselmeyer, and one could make the argument that 1 1/8 miles

is his best trip. But that's a tenuous position given his victories in this

year's Hollywood Gold Cup and the 2011 Santa Anita Handicap at 1 1/4 miles. Game

on Dude will be a very attractive "single" candidate for bettors in multi-race

wagers (Pick 4 etc).

The next group of contenders can be lumped together:

Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve are all quality runners

who look capable with a career-best, but the 1 1/4-mile distance should be a

legitimate concern for their backers. Ron the Greek captured this year's Santa

Anita Handicap as well as the Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs, but he

is far from consistent, recording a dull sixth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last

out, and could leave himself too much to do with his plodding run style. Flat

Out exits an encouraging win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but has not proven

himself away from Belmont Park.

Dullahan is on the fence for several races at this time, with the Classic,

Mile and Turf all options, but will likely wind up in the most prestigious event

(Classic) given that none of the Breeders' Cup races are held on his favorite

surface, Polytrack. The three-year-old has finished no better than fifth in his

last three starts on dirt and turf.

Mile: Wise Dan is a star attraction in this year's Breeders' Cup, but

this will be no "gimme" for arguably the world's second-best miler.

The Mile shapes up to be a three-horse race, with Wise Dan's main opposition

coming from a pair of classy Europeans, Group 1 winners Excelebration and

Moonlight Cloud. The international challenge could also include Group 1 winner

Elusive Kate.

A graded winner on dirt and synthetics, Wise Dan switched back to turf

following a head second in the Stephen Foster, the only setback in his last

seven starts, and proceeded to dismantle his competition with stunning ease,

recording eye-catching victories in the Shadwell Turf Mile, Woodbine Mile and

Fourstardave Handicap.

The exciting chestnut has worked his way into the Horse of the Year

discussion and is drawing poor-man comparisons to superstar Frankel. And barring

the surprise addition of Frankel (unlikely but the door is not completely shut),

Wise Dan will have an excellent opportunity to prove his worth against a pair of

quality rivals.

Animal Kingdom, last year's Kentucky Derby winner and champion three-year-old

male, is scheduled to return in this spot off an 8 1/2-month layoff, but his

main target is the Dubai World Cup next March and it's probably best to look for

more down the road.

Juvenile: An east-west showdown is shaping up between Shanghai Bobby

and Power Broker.

Unbeaten Shanghai Bobby is more accomplished, posting impressive wins in the

Champagne Stakes and Hopeful Stakes in his last two outings, but the Todd

Pletcher-trained colt faces the difficult task of shipping to California.

Power Broker is the local star, breaking his maiden by 6 1/2 lengths when

trying dirt in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes on September 29, and hails from

the mighty Baffert stable, which will send out serious contenders in at least

five Breeders' Cup races this year.

The Juvenile will be ripe for a major upset if Shanghai Bobby and Power

Broker both come up short.

Turf: It's been a common theme in recent years -- the American turf

colony is subpar and Europeans will be the top contenders in the 1 1/2-mile Turf

-- and international raiders have accounted for six of the last seven runnings,

the lone exception being English Channel in 2007.

Thankfully for the home team, Point of Entry appears cut from the same cloth

of an English Channel and has the potential to restore a little pride for the

Americans.

It will be a difficult task. St. Nicholas Abbey is scheduled to make a title

defense for Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien and 2011 Turf runner-up Sea Moon is targeting

the race as well. Japan's Trailblazer already had a prep over the course,

rallying for second in the Arroyo Seco MileChinchon, Imperial Monarch and Bayrir

could add

further depth to the overseas contingent.

Point of Entry will enter the Turf on quite a roll for trainer Shug

McGaughey, capturing his last five starts, including a trio of Grade 1 events in

the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer and Man o' War. He didn't face top

company in those starts, but accomplished them in the right way, scoring

comfortably each time.

The four-year-old Dynaformer colt is the lone American-based entrant with a

legitimate win chance.

Dirt Mile: The Dirt Mile is typically one of the most contentious

Breeders' Cup races on paper and this year should be no different.

After being held at a one-turn distance the last two years at Churchill

Downs, it will be contested at two turns at Santa Anita.

The Grade 2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park on September 29 served as a

possible key race, producing Dirt Mile contenders in Jersey Town and

Shackleford, and Emcee is another potential live East Coast-based candidate

following his smashing 4 1/2-length score in the Grade 1 Forego at seven

furlongs.

Todd Pletcher is contemplating running Dominus and Rule, and Fed Biz, Handsome Mike and Rail Trip are among the leading West Coast-based

prospects.

With no standouts in the Dirt Mile, bettors will go in many different

directions.

Turf Sprint: Santa Anita hosted the inaugural running of the Turf

Sprint in 2008 and the about 6 1/2-furlong affair produced a major shocker when

Desert Code upset his rivals at 36-1. That kind of outcome is possible once

again this year.

Unbridled's Note merits respect off his victory in the local prep, the

September 28 Eddie D. Stakes, but that was the three-year-old colt's turf bow

and he won't be an imposing presence against a much deeper group of challengers

on November 3.

Bridgetown is another logical win candidate following his victory in the

Woodford Stakes at Keeneland and the Pletcher trainee finished second in the

2007 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita.

California Flag, the 2009 winner here, is aiming to regain his title.

The Turf Sprint has the early feel of a dartboard race that could be up for

grabs.

Sprint: The Sprint looks like a race where the California-based horses

could dominate, and Amazombie will be the horse to beat in a title defense.

The 6yo was freshened off a convincing score in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby on

July 29 and did not run poorly when finishing fourth as the favorite in the

Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, only 1 1/4 lengths back of the winner.

Trainer Bill Spawr did not have his charge fully cranked off the 69-day layoff

and Amazombie figures to move forward off the performance.

The top three finishers -- Coil, Capital Account and Jimmy Creed -- are all

very dangerous as well.

Coil, a Grade 1 scorer at 1 1/8 miles last year, has been re-configured into

a top-class sprinter by Baffert, who also has the lightly-raced 5yo Capital

Account (a dead closer with century-topping BRIS Late Pace numbers in all six

starts this season) at the peak of his game. Jimmy Creed looks like a

rapidly-improving three-year-old for Richard Mandella who turned in a very

encouraging effort when making his dirt debut in the Santa Anita Sprint

Championship.

I expect the Sprint winner to come from one of those four.

Filly & Mare Sprint: Groupie Doll could put on a show in the Filly &

Mare Sprint.

The four-year-old filly discovered her best form earlier this spring for

trainer "Buff" Bradley, posting smashing Grade 1 wins in the Madison and Humana

Distaff, and received a much-deserved four-month freshening afterward. She

returned to the races this fall with the same zeal, crushing the competition in

the Grade 2 Presque Isle Masters and Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America

Stakes, and her best is at a different level from the rest of the fillies and

mares in her division.

Multiple Grade 1 winner It's Tricky could be the top rival (unless she opts

for the Ladies' Classic), but she's never

won outside of New York (zero for three) and could be a little over the top

after a very disappointing performance in the Beldame Stakes at Belmont. Musical

Romance, last year's female sprint champion, and multiple Grade 1 winner

Turbulent Descent will also warrant respect.

But Groupie Doll will need to need to show up with less than her best to lose.

Juvenile Turf: Chad Brown, who captured the 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf

at Santa Anita, is loaded for bear in the Juvenile Turf with Balance the Books

and Noble Tune, superb winners of the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland and

Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park.

Joha exits a win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity on Keeneland's Polytrack

and while the Juvenile is still under consideration, the Juvenile Turf makes

much more sense; he would be a front-running threat on Santa Anita's turf.

Oak Tree Juvenile Turf scorer Dry Summer is a leading California-based

contender and at least a couple of potentially dangerous Europeans expected.

Brown Almighty is also intriguing. From the first crop of 2008 Kentucky Derby

and Preakness winner Big Brown, the promising chestnut colt exits a troubled

second (elevated one spot by the stewards) in the Bourbon Stakes and could

continue to show more in the Juvenile Turf with a clean journey.

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