Breeders' Cup Feature -- Saturday storylines, early observations

BREEDERS' CUP FEATURE

OCTOBER 25, 2013

Saturday storylines, early observations

by James Scully

Breeders' Cup pre-entries were released on Wednesday and I will take an early

look at the major storylines surrounding each race, providing some personal

thoughts as well.

Saturday's races are below and click

here

for Friday's races:

Classic

Game On Dude needs this race for his legacy. He has produced a career-best

season so far in 2013, but it won't be complete without a Classic crown.

A victory guarantees him Horse of the Year and would change the perspective

on his entire career. Right now, Game On Dude's accomplishments are similar to

another terrific gelding, Lava Man, who dominated the Southern California

handicap landscape about a decade ago but never garnered Horse of the Year or

Classic glory.

Game On Dude joins a more exclusive club if he can break through with a

Classic victory in his third attempt.

Co-owned by former New York Yankees manager Joe Torre, Game On Dude is five-for-five this year, recording major tallies at the 1 1/4-mile distance in the

Santa Anita Handicap, Hollywood Gold Cup and Pacific Classic, and owns a

seven-for-eight mark on the main track at Santa Anita. However, his lone setback

occurred in last year's Classic, a seventh-place effort as the 7-5 favorite that

his supporters hope proves to be an aberration.

Game On Dude possesses huge BRIS numbers and has overcome pressured paces

before. He's the top older horse in the country, but detractors will make a case

against him.

That's because the Classic will be a different ballgame, with much tougher

competition, than Game On Dude's previous wins at 1 1/4

miles. He was the controlling speed in those events, but Game On Dude was not quick

enough from the gate to make the early lead last year -- "The rider wasn't

aggressive in getting a spot for him early and he was done. He's a

one-dimensional horse and he's got to be near the front," trainer Bob Baffert

said. Game On Dude can't afford to break a step slowly once

again and could face serious pressure throughout even if he is

well-positioned.

One thing is for certain -- the Classic should be a dynamite race.

The top four finishers from last year -- Fort Larned, Mucho Macho, Flat Out

and Ron the Greek -- are all back. A couple of three-year-olds are interesting

(Palace Malice and Will Take Charge) and Declaration of War, a multiple Group 1

winner on turf overseas, is bred to love dirt and can be considered a sleeper in

his career finale. Grade 1 winners Graydar and Paynter add further depth.

My take: There is some serious speed in the line-up and a couple of

early/pressers, including the in-form Mucho Macho Man, look capable of cranking

up the pressure by the far turn. Game On Dude didn't fire last year under more

favorable conditions (there was less speed present in 2012) and that's a

legitimate concern.

The Classic was held over a speed-favoring Santa Anita track 12 months ago and Fort

Larned essentially had it easy up front after breaking alertly -- he was running

fast but never felt any serious pressure from Mucho Macho Man until the stretch

drive as they raced one-two the entire way. I'm expecting a different pace

scenario this year, with a more contested battle that sets it up for either a

midpack stalker or late runner.

Mile

Reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan is back at Santa Anita to defend his

title in the Mile and the six-year-old gelding appeared seemingly invincible

until his nine-race win streak was snapped in the off-the-turf Shadwell Turf

Mile on October 5.

The defeat led to speculation that the six-year-old gelding might be over

the top, but Wise Dan remains a heavy favorite to repeat at Santa Anita.

He's handily defeated many of the North American-based turf horses and

there's only one top-class European in the field, Olympic Glory, after trainer

Richard Hannon announced that he would withdraw Toronado.

Wise Dan could still earn Horse of the Year with a Mile win and an upset in

the Classic.

My take: I can understand horseplayers taking a stand against Wise Dan

following the loss -- it is at least a minor concern -- but the turf star was

forced to race over a puddle-strewn Polytrack at Keeneland and wound up a clear

second behind a loose-on-the-lead Silver Max, a nine-time stakes winner. There

is plenty of speed in the Mile with Obviously and Silver Max guaranteeing a

lively pace, and I don't see a good reason to take a stand against Wise Dan.

He figures to appreciate the return to Santa Anita's turf after establishing

a new course mark last year (1:31.89).

Sprint

Grade 1 winner Points Offthebench and Private Zone are nice horses and will

likely compete for favoritism, but the Sprint lacks the fanfare of previous

editions with little star power.

Secret Circle has never raced in a Grade 1 sprint, but he deserves serious

consideration here following a terrific optional claiming win over the track on

October 14, his first start in about 18 months.

Other contenders include Fast Bullet, Gentlemen's Bet and Justin Phillip.

Reneesgotzip could be a player against males in this spot, but the Turf Sprint

is her first preference.

My take: Secret Circle impressed when turning six

furlongs in 1:07 4/5 last time, came right back to drill a half-mile bullet work

(:47) this week for Bob Baffert, and his natural speed should ensure a good trip

up close to the pace. He's capable.

Post positions are key -- much prefer to be outside than near the rail.

Turf

European challenger The Fugue is a top threat in the Turf and the American

contingent is deeper than normal with Little Mike, Point of Entry, Big Blue

Kitten and Indy Point all meriting respect.

The Fugue is pre-entered to the Filly & Mare Turf, but the 1 1/2-mile Turf distance is a better

fit for the four-year-old filly. A troubled third in last year's Filly & Mare

Turf, The Fugue posted a sensational four-length score in the Group 1 Yorkshire

Oaks at 12 furlongs two starts back.

Little Mike went off form earlier this season, recording two terrible

performances in Dubai, and was unplaced in both the United Nations and Arlington

Million before getting it back together in the September 28 Joe Hirsch, gutting

out a nose win after rallying from just off the pace. He showed his versatility

winning last year's Turf, rating in third early, and the speedy gelding figures

to sit close once again with Mike Smith.

Point of Entry, an unlucky second in the 2012 Turf and unbeaten in

two starts this year, is a top contender if ready to go off the layoff. An

excellent winner over Animal Kingdom in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap earlier this year,

the five-year-old was sidelined by a condylar fracture after capturing the

Manhattan in early June.

Big Blue Kitten won the United Nations and Sword Dancer before a troubled

second in the Joe Hirsch and will be rolling late. Indy Point, a classy

Argentine import for Richard Mandella, exits a sharp score at Santa Anita in the

John Henry Turf Championship.

My take: The Fugue is one of the leading European contenders in the

Breeders' Cup and I like her chances in the Turf. She was unlucky last year,

being forced to steady repeatedly during the stretch drive, and returns in

strong form this year, comfortably capturing her last two starts over Group 1

rivals.

But the Turf looks like an easy race to spread in for multi-race bets.

Juvenile

The Juvenile features an interesting dynamic between an accomplished colt from

New York (Champagne winner Havana) and a buzz horse from Bob Baffert's stable

(recent debut maiden scorer Tap It Rich). They figure to be the top two betting

choices.

Havana is two-for-two for Todd Pletcher and exits an excellent win over early

Kentucky Derby favorite Honor Code (who will skip the Juvenile).

Tap It Rich overcame an awkward start to triumph in sensational fashion on

October 12, taking a one-mile maiden at Santa Anita going away by nearly five

lengths.

Hopeful winner Strong Mandate didn't fire in the Champagne but is a candidate

to rebound for D. Wayne Lukas. New Year's Day is Baffert's "other" horse. He

finished third when making his career debut in a 5 1/2-furlong key race at Del

Mar and recorded a superb win last time when stretching out to two turns.

My take: Don't want to be drawn on the far outside in the Juvenile so

post positions will be important. I've got New Year's Day pegged as a value play

if he draws well.

In my opinion, the Street Cry colt was the most impressive two-turn maiden

winner at Del Mar, displaying good tactical speed to score easily on August 31.

Even though he skipped the FrontRunner due to a minor setback, New Year's Day

was flattered when the runner-up from his maiden win (Bond Holder) captured the

Grade 1 event by open lengths. And he didn't miss much training time for

Baffert, returning to the worktab with three consecutive bullet works this month

at Santa Anita.

New Year's Day appears to have a bright future if he stays healthy and could

be a little overlooked in his stakes debut.

Turf Sprint

Mizdirection represents the Jungle (co-owned by Jim Rome) and will be back for a

title defense in the Turf Sprint. The five-year-old gray mare is a course

specialist, recording a six-for-six mark over the unique, about 6 1/2-furlong downhill trip at

Santa Anita.

She's one of two extremely talented females in the line-up along with

Reneesgotzip, who finished a close third last year. Unbridled's Note, the 2012

runner-up, is another serious contender along with Eddie D. Stakes winner Chips

All In.

Caracortado closed strongly to just miss in the Eddie D., his first start

since January 2012, and the six-year-old gelding would be a good story if able

to deliver the victory. An inexpensive son of little-known sire Cat Dreams, the

California-bred appeared headed toward big things on the turf before being

derailed by foot problems nearly two years ago.

Boat Trip, Capo Bastone, Dimension and Jeranimo are also contenders in the

well-matched field.

Grade 1 winners Obviously and Silver Max were pre-entered but are likely

headed to the Mile.

My take: I probably won't come to the plate with a strong opinion in

the Turf Sprint -- it's a good race to search for value but the favorites can't

be dismissed from multi-race wagers.

A win over the course is an advantage and Boat Trip broke his maiden down the

hill last year. He just missed when making his second attempt over it, finishing

a nose second in the Eddie D., and the deep closer could be one to watch in

his third start off the layoff at long odds.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Does Groupie Doll still have it? She impressively captured last year's Filly

& Mare Sprint, and was named champion female sprinter, but a crack in the armor

has surfaced with losses in two of three starts this season.

The rest of the field appears evenly matched.

Top contenders include Book Review, Dance to Bristol, Judy the Beauty and

Sweet Lulu.

My take: Groupie Doll's BRIS Speed ratings tell the story: she posted

century-topping numbers in 2012 but can't get out of the 90s in three outings

this year. She looks like a vulnerable favorite to me.

Sweet Lulu caught the eye when capturing her debut in late May

and opened her racing career with three impressive wins in Southern California,

including a smart tally over older rivals at Del Mar. She regressed from a

Speed-figure perspective (came home slowly) when making her stakes bow in the

Grade 1 Test at Saratoga but still managed to win with an awesome display of grit,

battling back after being overhauled in the stretch to score by a head.

The three-year-old filly sustained her first setback with a respectable

second in the Grade 1 Cotillion last out and I like the cutback to seven

furlongs in the Filly & Mare Sprint. I'm keen on Sweet Lulu's chances but don't

want to see her draw an inside post at this distance.

Filly & Mare Turf

She said "Dank you very much" when pummeling foes in the Beverly D. and rates

as the horse to beat in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Dank is conditioned by one of Europe's best, Sir Michael Stoute, and will be making her first start since the runaway victory at Arlington in

mid-August.

The competition will be no pushover. Tiz Flirtatious brings a huge finishing

kick and improving form into the 1 1/4-mile event and last year's Filly & Mare

Turf runner-up Marketing Mix is all class, especially in Southern California.

Laughing will attempt to carry her form from New York, winning major events at

Belmont and Saratoga while compiling a four-race win streak, and the

three-year-olds (Alterite, Emollient and Kitten's Dumplings) are in tough but

worth a mention.

French Group 1 winner Romantica, a Juddmonte homebred by Galileo, caught soft

turn in four of her last five starts, but she's run well on drier ground in the

past and could find this level of competition to her liking for Andre Fabre. She

exits a seventh to subsequent Arc winner Treve.

My take: Dank had the benefit of a couple of recent preps before

exploding at Arlington, turning in a career-best effort by a wide margin, but

she's been on the sidelines for 2 1/2 months and will be switching to a much

different turf course at Santa Anita. She offers little appeal at short odds.

I'm a fan of Tiz Flirtatious, who does her best running in the stretch for

trainer Marty Jones (BRIS Late Pace ratings of 111 and 121 in her last two

starts). The Santa Anita turf specialist (four wins and a second from five

attempts) should be among the favorites following her victory in the Rodeo

Drive, but the hard-trying mare could be a little overlooked against the likes

of Dank and Marketing Mix.

Alterite and Romantica are interesting longshots in my estimation.

Juvenile Fillies

An eclectic field meets in the Juvenile Fillies.

New York is well-represented by Artemis Agrotera and Sweet Reason, a pair of

lightly-raced Grade 1 winners with championship aspirations.

The home team features Secret Compass and She's a Tiger, who split their two

previous meetings in Grade 1 races. Secret Compass got up late to nail her rival

by a head in the Chandelier at Santa Anita after finishing fourth to She's a

Tiger in the Del Mar Debutante. Grade 2 winner Concave comes back from a

freshening and merits a look for Doug O'Neill.

Scandalous Act swept through the Florida Stallion series in resounding

fashion, winning all three races at Calder by open lengths, and her BRIS numbers

are among the best in the field. The last Florida-based sensation in the

Juvenile Fillies, Awesome Feather, was named champion following her easy victory

at Churchill Downs in 2010.

Untapable, winner of the Grade 2 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs in early

September, represents the Midwest. The unbeaten Tapit filly is trained by Steve

Asmussen. Pocahontas third-placer Rosalind, who exits a runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, will also ship from Kentucky. Alcibiades winner My

Conquestadory is pre-entered but is expected to scratch in favor of the Juvenile

Fillies Turf.

My take: Loved the determination Artemis Agrotera displayed in only

her second start, jumping straight from a state-bred maiden win to the Grade 1

Frizette. After disposing of the speed, she easily held off the heavily-favored Sweet Reason in deep stretch.

In two starts, Artemis Agrotera has won on the front end in blistering

fashion and from just off the pace. Shipping from New York to California is the

concern, but her high cruising speed could come in handy at Santa Anita. I'm

inclined to think she'll have more to offer in the Breeders' Cup.

But a case can be made for at least half the field.

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