Breeders' Cup Friday Previews

BREEDERS' CUP FRIDAY

PREVIEWS

In 27 runnings of the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, only seven sophomores

have managed to beat their elders to take the top prize. With Havre de Grace

headed to the Breeders' Cup Classic, and the defection of Blind Luck following a

uncharacteristic unplaced finish in the Grade 1 Lady's Secret Stakes, this could

be the year the sophomores take back the Ladies' Classic. The last

three-year-old filly to triumph in the race came in 2004 when Ashado wrapped up

her championship season with a 1 1/4-length victory.

1ST -- ROYAL DELTA could be just the sophomore lass to take down her elders

in this year's edition of the Ladies' Classic. The dark bay filly made just one

start as a juvenile, capturing her debut at Belmont Park by 12 lengths last

October, then ran the worse race of her career thus far when ninth facing stakes

rivals at Tampa Bay Downs. Trainer Bill Mott shipped his budding star to

Keeneland for her next start, and Royal Delta got back on the winning track with

an allowance victory.

The miss then headed to Pimlico for a 2 1/2-length score in the Grade 2

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes before getting a brief freshener the next month. Showing

up at Saratoga, she proceeded to run third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American

Oaks before posting a 5 1/2-length victory in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes back at

the Spa. Her final prep for the Breeders' Cup came against Havre de Grace, where

she wound up best-of-the-rest when second in the Grade 1 Beldame Invitational.

Royal Delta has shown steady progression all year and has been working

terrifically at Churchill in the lead-up to the big dance. She keeps regular

rider Jose Lezcano in the saddle and would wrap up champion three-year-old filly

honors with a win here.

2ND -- ULTRA BLEND will be making her first foray outside of California when

going in the Ladies' Classic, but the bay mare appears to be at the top of her

game presently. She's run in the top three in all seven of her 2011 starts,

including four wins against stakes competition. Two of those wins came in the

Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes and the Grade 2 Milady Handicap, both on the

synthetic surfaces in Southern California.

Though Ultra Blend has spent much of her career running either on synthetic

or turf courses, the five-year-old is exiting a close second in the Lady's

Secret on Santa Anita's dirt track. The Art Sherman runner missed to Zazu in

that race but won't have to worry about facing that rival again here as Zazu was

withdrawn from Breeders' Cup consideration due to an inflamed shoulder.

Ultra Blend appears to be the best of the older competitors in this field,

and her experience could come in handy against her younger rivals. She's earned

triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in her last two starts and should at the very

least pick up a placing in this one.

3RD -- PLUM PRETTY is returning to the site of her Kentucky Oaks upset in the

spring. Though the Bob Baffert trainee loped home a 25-length winner of the

Sunland Park Oaks, she was sent off at 6-1 in the Kentucky Oaks. The bay filly

just held St. John's River by a neck in that contest, then ran second in her

next two races -- the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks and Coaching Club American Oaks.

In the former, Plum Pretty was runner-up to Zazu while in the latter easily

held Royal Delta by 6 1/2 lengths on the wire. She was no match for that rival

in the Alabama, though, finishing a well-beaten fourth on the line. The

three-year-old didn't return to the winner's circle until her last race in the

Grade 2 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing. She finally got the best of It's

Tricky, who ran in front of her in the CCA Oaks and Alabama in their prior two

meetings, when leading all the way home to a 7 1/2-length score in the

Cotillion.

Plum Pretty has been competitive in almost all of her races this season and

owns valuable experience over the track, something no one else in this field can

say. That may be enough of an edge for the bay lass to prevail.

OTHERS -- IT'S TRICKY posted valuable wins in the Grade 1 Acorn and CCA Oaks

before well-beaten runner-up efforts in her past two. The Kiaran McLaughlin

pupil has held her own in most cases this year, but her post time odds may not

offer much of an incentive to pick her. PACHATTACK is still looking for that

elusive first Grade 1 victory, and this spot offers up just as much chance as

her last two races. The chestnut mare ran second in a pair of Grade 1s --the

Spinster Stakes and Personal Ensign Invitational -- and could easily find

herself in the top three yet again here.

ASK THE MOON was an 18-1 surprise in the Grade 1 Ruffian Handicap, but proved

that race to be no fluke when taking the Personal Ensign next out. Though she

didn't do so well in the Lady's Secret last out, the six-year-old bay is no

stranger to providing an upset. MISS MATCH captured a Grade 1 earlier in the

season, but her most recent claim to fame came as a fourth-placing against the

boys in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita. She'll be tough in the

exotics.

Friday's $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf would have been a

show-stopper if 2009 winner Midday and French champion Sarafina had joined the

fray, instead of tackling males in the Turf. But the companion race for

distaffers has still attracted a deep and talented cast of 12 to square off over

1 3/8 miles at Churchill Downs.

Although 2-1 morning-line favorite Stacelita has impressed in her last pair

since her importation, she's loomed as the class of the field in both of those

races. On Friday, she'll face stiffer competition, especially from her French

homeland. We'll try to beat her with the Andre Fabre-trained Announce, who is

pegged at a more enticing 9-2 and has already defeated Stacelita earlier in the

year.

1ST -- ANNOUNCE is a homebred campaigned by Juddmonte Farms, successful three

times in the Filly & Mare Turf with Banks Hill (2001), Intercontinental (2005)

and Midday. Indeed, we wonder whether the decision to send Midday elsewhere was

influenced, at least in part, to help clear a path for her fellow Juddmonte

runner.

A stalking type with a strong turn of foot, Announce has compiled a sparkling

10-5-3-0 career record while competing against salty rivals. The well-bred

chestnut was second to Sarafina in the Group 2 Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud, a

left-handed course, and she made the outstanding gelding Cirrus des Aigles work

a bit to fend her off in the Group 3 La Coupe. Finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind

Announce that day was a reappearing Stacelita.

Announce has recently run two terrific races at the Group 1 level. After

quickening well to deny Group 1 victress Timepiece in the Prix Jean Romanet, she

missed by a nostril to Filly & Mare Turf rival Nahrain in the Prix de l'Opera.

Announce will relish the extra distance, and the prospect of good-to-firm

ground, at Churchill. Up-and-coming rider Maxime Guyon should carve out a

perfect trip from post 6.

2ND -- STACELITA was at or near the top of her division in France for two

years, so she's hardly one of those sub-optimal Europeans who find new life in

the United States. Her four French Group 1 wins include tour de force

performances in the 2009 French Oaks and Prix Saint-Alary, and she almost caught

Midday napping in the Group 1 Nassau last year.

With her tactical speed, Stacelita always shaped up like a horse who would

thrive in American conditions, and so she's proved. Unlucky not to win the Grade

1 United Nations after a bad trip, she got back on track by outclassing fellow

distaffers in the Grade 1 Beverly D. and the Grade 1 Flower Bowl (historically

the key prep). Stacelita unfortunately exited the Flower Bowl with an eye injury

that's been undergoing treatment. Trainer Chad Brown reports that she's

continued to train perfectly, but it's never ideal to be battling a physical

issue in the build-up to a championship race. The French-bred with the German

pedigree projects an inside tracking trip with Ramon Dominguez, and if she's at

her best, she'll be tough.

3RD -- Unbeaten NAHRAIN warrants plenty of respect. Trained by Roger Varian,

who has had a masterful first season since taking over from his mentor Michael

Jarvis, Nahrain has risen meteorically in only four starts. The flashy chestnut

looked in a different league versus lesser opponents, and confirmed that

impression when stepping up to the big time in the Opera. Nahrain capitalized on

a rail-skimming trip that day, and was all out to hang on from the persistent

Announce, suggesting that she might not be able to do so again here.

Nevertheless, the beautifully-bred filly has plenty of scope to improve, and

she's got a superb tactician in Frankie Dettori aboard.

OTHERS -- HARMONIOUS has the look of a live longshot at 30-1, and would make

a great story for trainer John Shirreffs in the post-Zenyatta phase of his

career. The powerfully-built dark bay ranked as America's top sophomore filly on

turf last year, through eye-catching wins in the Grade 1 American Oaks and the

Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. Since then, nothing's gone her way.

Yet Harmonious has been closing robustly in races that are either too short or

otherwise didn't set up well for her. She's been firing bullets in preparation

for this engagement, and we wouldn't be shocked to see her upset the apple cart

with Martin Garcia.

Lest it be objected that Harmonious ran terribly in this very race in 2010,

note an important equipment update. Shirreffs said that she was slipping all

over the course last year, so she's decked out with toe grabs to ensure her

traction this time. There's also ample precedent for a filly to rebound from an

unplaced effort the prior year: Perfect Sting (2000) and Starine (2002) both

won, and Pure Clan (2009) finished second, after bombing in their first

attempts.

Trainer Graham Motion's pair of ARUNA and defending champion SHARED ACCOUNT

are too dangerous to leave out. Aruna has never finished worse than second since

her arrival in the United States, and she's run two strong races over the

Churchill turf. Distance is a question, but she stands to inherit plenty of

stamina from her dam's side of the pedigree. Aruna's 2011 campaign was very

similar to the path followed by Shared Account in 2010, and she would have

contested the Flower Bowl if the turf hadn't come up too soft. But for that

inclement weather at Belmont, Aruna might have entered this race with a much

higher profile.

Shared Account made the most of an ideal trip to pull a 46-1 shock here last

year. We can't imagine her becoming the first back-to-back Filly & Mare Turf

winner, especially with her abbreviated two-race season. On the other hand, we

also don't want to repeat our mistake of underestimating her. Her comeback sixth

in the Grade 2 Canadian was full of merit, and looks even better after the

Canadian fifth, Miss Keller, returned to surprise the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor.

Motion's reportedly very happy with Shared Account, who is entitled to move

forward in her second start off the break.