Breeders' Cup Mile

BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

PREVIEWS

BREEDERS' CUP MILE (G1),

11TH-SA, $2,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1MT, 7:40PM, 11-2

The Breeders' Cup Mile shapes up as a referendum on defending champion WISE

DAN: will the reigning Horse of the Year repeat, or is an upset brewing?

A glance at the list of previous Mile champs who tried to win two in a row is

instructive. True greats like Miesque, Lure and Goldikova all succeeded, while

good horses of slightly lesser caliber -- Steinlen, Six Perfections, Singletary

and Kip Deville -- failed. (We haven't forgotten Da Hoss, but he wasn't in

consecutive years). There's no argument about which camp Wise Dan belongs in:

the triple Eclipse Award winner has the profile of back-to-back Mile champions,

not "one-termers."

1ST -- WISE DAN deserves his short odds as the most likely winner over the

entire two-day Championships. But for a last-minute deluge that switched the

Shadwell Mile onto the Keeneland Polytrack, he would have brought a 10-race

winning streak into the Mile. According to Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez,

the powerful mover just couldn't get traction on the synthetic surface riddled

with puddles, and had to settle for second to the loose-on-the-lead SILVER MAX.

That outcome was unthinkable had the race stayed on turf, so it shouldn't have a

bearing here.

For the previous 14 months, Wise Dan had been literally unbeatable. He

crowned his 2012 Horse of the Year campaign with a record-setting triumph in

this race. By scorching in 1:31 3/5, he broke both Santa Anita's course mark and

the Breeders' Cup Mile stakes record. The Charlie LoPresti charge extended his

sequence through his first five outings this season, including substantial

weight-bearing exploits in the Firecracker and Fourstardave Handicaps. Wise Dan

not only won the September 15 Woodbine Mile for the second year in a row, but he

set a course record over the E.P. Taylor turf by blitzing in 1:31 3/5.

LoPresti revealed that Wise Dan was "mad" after his shock loss in the

Shadwell Mile, and that insight into his personality should make his opponents

all the more worried. The future Hall of Famer has posted a couple of sharp

half-mile works at Keeneland, and last week, he blew out in blistering time at

the end of a routine gallop, suggesting that he's sitting on a big rebound

effort.

Last year at Santa Anita, Wise Dan faced a stiffer European challenge and an

inside draw. This time, the internationals have more questions to answer, and

Wise Dan will be in the clear throughout from post 8.

2ND -- OBVIOUSLY, third to Wise Dan in the 2012 edition, has been pegged at a

high 10-1 on the morning line after his implosion in the City of Hope Mile. But

the talented front runner had an excuse that day: he reportedly exited his

subpar fourth with gravel in a hoof. It's plausible considering that he opened

up before uncharacteristically weakening, and getting swamped by NO JET LAG and

HE BE FIRE N ICE.

Until the City of Hope, Obviously had been six-for-seven at a mile, his lone

loss the aforementioned third here a year ago. The Mike Mitchell charge had also

been heavily favored in six of his last seven, again except for the 2012 Mile,

making Saturday's odds an outlier.

Mitchell has conceded that they've gotten the tactics wrong of late. Instead

of trying to rate him on the front end, or chase the pace, connections have

realized that they were taking away his biggest weapon -- his raw early speed.

Obviously is going to be turned loose from the gate on Saturday, in a bold

catch-me-if-you-can tactic. He can take this field a long way if at his best,

and his two recent bullets over the course imply that he is.

3RD -- OLYMPIC GLORY has stellar European form, which would ordinarily cause

him to be rated more highly here. Yet the Richard Hannon trainee has a couple of

knocks against him: he wheels back just two weeks after a new career high in the

Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot, and he is a candidate to blow the turns, after

failing to corner well at Longchamp twice this year.

On paper, Olympic Glory's not quite as compelling as the 2012 European

invaders, Excelebration and Moonlight Cloud, neither of whom put their best foot

forward at Santa Anita. Perhaps significantly, Excelebration was also coming

back on short rest from a similarly-impressive triumph in the QE II.

But despite those caveats, Olympic Glory is simply too dangerous to discount.

By Choisir (also the sire of Obviously), he brings a sparkling career record of

10-6-3-0. The addition of blinkers woke him up in the QE II, where he rolled to

a 3 1/4-length conquest of a Group 1 field. The margin was inflated because of

the desperately soft ground, but he's capable on much better going as well. In

August, he nearly caught Moonlight Cloud in course-record time in the Prix

Jacques le Marois at Deauville. If he can run up to that level around two turns,

he's a threat, and in light of the question marks around him, his odds could

drift.

OTHERS -- SILENTIO could crash the exotics at a big price of 20-1 on the

morning line. Never off the board in five local starts, the Gary Mandella colt

captured the Sir Beaufort last December, got up for third in the Arcadia, and

missed by a whisker in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Silentio was clearly below his

best when last of five behind Wise Dan in the Maker's 46 Mile at Keeneland

(where he found himself in the unaccustomed position of leading early).

Resurfacing from a 4 1/2-month layoff in the August 25 Del Mar Mile, he was a

close third to Obviously and He Be Fire N Ice, and ought to move forward with

that under his belt. Silentio has been training briskly over the Hollywood

Cushion Track, and promises to outperform his odds on Saturday.

ZA APPROVAL, a half-brother to 2006 Mile upsetter Miesque's Approval, is an

admirably consistent type from the Christophe Clement barn. Runner-up to Wise

Dan in the Woodbine Mile and to Obviously in the Shoemaker Mile back in June, Za

Approval has scored his signature wins at the Grade 3 level (the Appleton, Red

Bank and Knickerbocker last out). The firm-turf lover will get his preferred

conditions and is another to include in the exotics.

SILVER MAX has never won unless he's on the lead, and barring something

unforeseen happening with Obviously, we just don't think that he has the gears

to outpace Obviously early. NO JET LAG and HE BE FIRE N ICE took advantage of

Obviously's flop to run one-two in the City of Hope. They created an excellent

visual impression along with a superb final time (1:31 4/5), and a repeat of

that would put them squarely in the mix. Yet this is a far tougher assignment,

and we're taking a more cautious view of both.

CRISTOFORO COLOMBO is some way below Aidan O'Brien's typical runners in this

race. A smart two-year-old who placed to Dawn Approach and Olympic Glory last

season, he hasn't done anything at three to suggest that he can cope with this

group. BRIGHT THOUGHT brings a perfect three-for-three mark over the course, but

was last seen setting a world record for 1 1/2 miles in the March 16 San Luis

Rey. The speedy type returns from an injury-induced layoff and figures to get

burned up early.