Breeders' Cup Saturday

BREEDERS' CUP

PREVIEWS

Having missed the opportunity to bet with both fists for CASINO DRIVE

(Mineshaft) over the vulnerable Big Brown in the Belmont S. (G1), we can't pass

up the chance to back him to pull off an even bigger upset in the Breeders' Cup

Classic (G1) over reigning Horse of the Year and Classic winner CURLIN (Smart

Strike).

How good is Casino Drive? We really don't know, and perhaps we're being

overly optimistic to think a horse with all of three starts can defeat some of

the best Thoroughbreds in the world at weight-for-age going 1 1/4 miles. What we

can rely on is his pedigree and the confidence of his connections, plus he is

one of a few who got in a prep over Santa Anita's new Pro-Ride surface. So

highly thought of is he that his handlers, after withdrawing from the Belmont,

sent him back to Japan and announced they would return for the Classic. And here

he is.

We loved his Peter Pan S. (G2) romp, which garnered a 109 BRIS Speed rating,

one of the higher marks awarded to any horse up to that point of the season. Big

Brown narrowly exceeded that figure just twice this season, getting a 110 for the Florida

Derby (G1) and the Haskell Invitational (G1). Curlin earned a higher rating only once

during his U.S. campaign this season, receiving a 117 for his Jockey

Club Gold Cup (G1) score. More important in our eyes is that Casino Drive was

able to get a prep in over the new main track. A three-quarters-of-a-length win

over modest allowance foes is nothing to coronate him for, but he was nowhere

near 100 percent fit for that and overcame a dreadfully slow pace in the process

(note the excellent 123 Late Pace rating that day).

Our modern Thoroughbred is treated with kid gloves, and returning on short

rest is anathema to most present-day conditioners. Trainer Kazuo Fujisawa has no qualms

about the 13-day turnaround, and neither will we. Remember that the first two

winners of this race, Wild Again and Proud Truth, won 13 and seven days,

respectively, after their final Breeders' Cup preps. It's not impossible that it

can happen again.

We love Curlin and might prefer to see him win the whole thing if only to rub

it into the face of the doubters who were conceding this race to Big Brown

before that one's retirement and prior to the Curlin camp's decision to run here

was official. His record and ability speaks for itself. The lingering question,

obviously, is will he run as effectively over a synthetic surface? From the way

he's looked in his three official works over the track, we see little reason to

suspect he won't. But there will always be that little sliver of doubt, and for

that reason we will take what might be the ultimately unwise decision to go

against him. He looks great in every respect, and is deserving of all the

accolades he's been given.

We thought TIAGO's (Pleasant Tap) final prep in the Goodwood S. (G1) was

sneaky good, and it seems he's finally over some of the nagging infirmities that

cut short his summer season. An honest campaigner, he's never been a win machine

like Curlin or others of similar ilk, but he is gritty, and we still think his

duel down the stretch with Heatseeker (Ire) in the Oaklawn H. (G2) was the most

thrilling race of the year. We're not quite convinced he can outfinish Curlin, even with the experience edge over this track, but a token

saver in addition to liberal usage in the exotics is the way we're playing it.

GO BETWEEN (Point Given) is a synthetic fool, in a nice way, and thus

deserves mention among the top contenders. Never worse than second in six

attempts on synthetic ground, he clearly relishes 1 1/4 miles and figures to be

one of those running best at the end. He is, however, not invulnerable to

losing to a relatively modest runner, and this is no race for his past to come

back to haunt him.

The European challengers DUKE OF MARMALADE (Ire) (Danehill), HENRYTHENAVIGATOR

(Kingmambo) and RAVEN'S PASS (Elusive Quality) are absolutely first-class

animals in their own environment, but we're somewhat clueless as to how they

will handle this surface. Their chances of winning a Breeders' Cup race would

have been much better if they had been entered in the various turf races for

which they are best suited, but in the case of Ballydoyle, who campaigns Duke of

Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, they seem more concerned about enhancing the

residual value of their stallion prospects by testing them on a variety of

surfaces in the hope they successfully display versatility.

All three have some non-turf influences in their pedigree, Raven's Pass

perhaps more so as he is out of a mare by Lord at War (Arg), who captured the

1985 Santa Anita H. (G1). Our main knock against Duke of Marmalade is that he

might be a little over the top following a grueling season, while Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass are both stretching out beyond a mile for the

first time. Kudos to any of them if they happen to pull this thing off.

COLONEL JOHN (Tiznow) has always had a strong following. We weren't too keen

on him at Kentucky Derby (G1) time due to his inexperience over dirt, and we

were right in that regard. He has since proven his ability to handle that

surface in the Travers S. (G1) over 10 furlongs, but ultimately his synthetic

form, which is solid, is more important. We can't get over the fact, however,

that the form of the Travers has not held up very well as the likes of Mambo

in Seattle (Kingmambo), Pyro (Pulpit), Harlem Rocker (Macho Uno), Macho Again

(Macho Uno), and Da' Tara (Tiznow) failed to flatter Colonel John in subsequent

outings.

CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) (Danehill) was a solid third in the Santa Anita H. (G1)

last winter, and might appreciate a return to the synthetic after a

less-than-stellar season campaigning on turf. He might be a useful inclusion on

the lower rungs of the exotics, but we question his overall class to upset them

all. STUDENT COUNCIL (Kingmambo) has had his moments over the past two years,

but he's not very consistent in stringing good races together and would do well

to plunk up for a minor award. FAIRBANKS (Giant's Causeway) exits a victory in

the 10-furlong Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), and was a Grade 3 winner over Santa

Anita's old dirt track, but has never really struck us as a top-grade older

horse. SMOOTH AIR (Smooth Jazz) is a competent performer, albeit one that has never

beaten a top class field. His recent stakes triumph on turf hints slightly at

being fond of Pro-Ride, but he didn't beat much and probably outclassed that

group

more than anything.