Breeders' Cup Turf

BREEDERS' CUP TURF (G1),

9TH-SA, $3,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/2MT, 6:22PM, 11-1

by Kellie Reilly

The Breeders' Cup Turf might have lost its defending champion in Magician, but it's still

packed with star power. Given the quality of the Europeans' depth chart compared

to ours, the 1 1/2-mile prize looks destined to travel across the Atlantic yet

again. The most pressing handicapping task is to identify the likeliest European

to do the honors, and one name rises over the horizon.

1ST -- TELESCOPE simply annihilated them in the June 21 Hardwicke at Royal

Ascot, amply justifying the hype that has long enveloped him. If he can even

come close to duplicating that effort in similar conditions, no one in this

field could live with him. The Sir Michael Stoute colt was a onetime antepost

favorite for the 2013 Epsom Derby, only to have his sophomore campaign bedeviled

by injury. He did manage to make the Great Voltigeur last summer, and his fluent

victory hinted that he was at his best going 1 1/2 miles on quick ground.

Telescope didn't get those conditions again until his third start off the layoff

in the Hardwicke, where he romped by seven lengths from stablemate Hillstar (the

eventual winner of the Canadian International). The son of Galileo hasn't gotten

those conditions in his two ensuing starts, but still turned in honorable

efforts in defeat. On ground with a little more give than he likes in the July

26 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth back at Ascot, he was best of the rest

behind Oaks heroine Taghrooda (later third in the Arc). In the August 20

Juddmonte International at York, Telescope loved the firmish going, but couldn't

quite cope with the shorter 1 5/16-mile trip, and deferred to all-star

sophomores Australia and The Grey Gatsby.

Connections resisted the lure of the Arc, and Stoute methodically mapped his

way to Santa Anita, where Telescope will have his optimal working environment.

Brilliant jockey Ryan Moore will have also worked out a game plan from his rail

post. With his useful tactical speed, Telescope figures to be stalking early

before delivering the coup de grace. He could give the Stoute/Moore tandem a

huge double following stablemate Dank in the Filly & Mare Turf.

2ND -- FLINTSHIRE, most recently runner-up to history-making Treve in the

Arc, has a hefty stat in his favor. Arc losers have come back later in the fall

to win this race no fewer than nine times (including Miss Alleged, who

ran in the 1991 Washington D.C. International in between). From the

ever-dangerous Andre Fabre yard, Flintshire has yet to finish out of the top two

on his preferred good ground. His resume includes a victory in last year's Grand

Prix de Paris as well as a second to the venerable Cirrus des Aigles in the June

7 Coronation Cup at Epsom. The Juddmonte homebred promises to perform right up

to his best here, and would be an eminently logical winner. We can't escape the

feeling, though, that he might lack the panache of a Telescope in full flight.

3RD -- CHICQUITA perhaps should have come here straight off her 15th in the

Arc (from post 18), but the $8 million Goffs purchase is too talented to ignore.

To be sure, the daughter of Montjeu has mad quirks to go along with her ability,

and we wouldn't be surprised to see either the best or worst of her here. She

has a penchant for veering toward the grandstand, and as an equal-opportunity

wanderer, she has done this at both right- and left-handed tracks, for former

trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre as well as current trainer Aidan O'Brien. Second to

the mighty Treve in last year's French Oaks, she nearly threw away the Irish

Oaks with this behavior, but held on to break her maiden. Chicquita arguably did

throw away her latest venture, the October 18 British Champions Fillies' and

Mares' at Ascot, and wound up third after her costly drift. Laboring on the

heavy going that day could have left its mark, and this does loom as an

afterthought. But she only recently returned from a 14-month layoff in

September, finishing a sharp second to the now-retired Tarfasha, so could be

comparatively fresher than most this time of year. And new rider Frankie Dettori could be just the forceful pilot she

needs to set, and keep her, straight.

OTHERS -- MAIN SEQUENCE is the most accomplished of the American-based

runners, but HARDEST CORE is a

more attractive 10-1 for under-the-radar connections. The Eddie Graham charge

readily disposed of a subpar Magician in the August 16 Arlington Million,

begging the question of how he would have fared among the usual suspects in the

division's other major races this summer and fall. Hardest Core was an emphatic

winner of Delaware's Cape Henlopen in his only prior attempt at this distance,

and the up-and-comer could have still more scope to progress.

Main Sequence was thoroughly exposed during his former career in England.

Even allowing for the magnificent training job here by Graham Motion, and his

possibly benefiting from Lasix,

his Grade 1 hat trick since his repatriation could be read as an indictment of

the U.S. turf scene. His class relief on these shores has now ended, along with

his successful partnership with Rajiv Maragh (due to injury). Main Sequence picks up the services of Hall

of Famer John Velazquez, and he will be closing late. But he could also be an

underlay based on overvaluing of his U.S. record.

Likely pacesetter IMAGINING and TWILIGHT ECLIPSE haven't figured out a way to

beat Main Sequence yet. BROWN PANTHER is a top-class English stayer, but could

find life difficult among 12-furlong specialists on a firm, turning course.

HANGOVER KID and the trio from the September 28 John Henry Turf Championship --

FINNEGANS WAKE, BIG JOHN B and STARSPANGLED HEAT -- all look overmatched.