Classic Diary

CLASSIC DIARY

OCTOBER 24, 2009

by James Scully

Call it the heart of a line-up. In baseball, the New York

Yankees come at you with Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui in the

3-4-5 spot, and the Philadelphia Phillies can counter with their own "Murderers'

Row" of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth. Europe is poised to make a

big impact upon this year's Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita, with hot prospects

scattered throughout the 14-race program, and three top Classic (G1) contenders --

RIP VAN WINKLE (Galileo [Ire]), MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Danehill Dancer) and

TWICE OVER (Observatory) -- represent the heart of the International team.

It will be a popular trifecta box. The 2008 Classic was a humbling experience

for the home team as England's Raven's Pass and Ireland's Henrythenavigator

proved superior over the Pro-Ride, and the foreign raiders are

potentially stronger this time around. The American runners aren't viewed

favorably this year. On dirt or synthetics, our three-year-old males are

generally considered mediocre, and the older horses are held in lower regard.

America didn't have a horse in contention inside the final furlong last year,

and many expect to see more of the same on November 7. Here is a profile of the

European Classic contenders:

Rip Van Winkle is the likely Classic favorite for Aidan

O'Brien. An impressive 2 1/2-length scorer in the one-mile Sussex S. (Eng-G1) two

starts back, the three-year-old colt exits a commendable score in the one-mile Queen

Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot, winning by 1 1/4 lengths with plenty left in

the tank. In his lone attempt at 10 furlongs, he finished an excellent second to

Sea the Stars in the July 4 Eclipse S. (Eng-G1), 4 1/2 lengths clear of Breeders'

Cup Turf (G1) hero Conduit (Ire) (Dalakhani) in third.

O'Brien has saddled two Classic runners-up, Henrythenavigator and Giant's

Causeway, and Coolmore is on a mission to win the Breeders' Cup's centerpiece

event. Rip Van Winkle heads a dynamite one-two punch for the powerful Irish

outfit. His BRIS Class ratings will be the best in the field, and stable rider

Johnny Murtagh will likely opt for the colt over Mastercraftsman.

Mastercraftsman poses a legitimate threat to his stablemate. Winner of the

Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) at the Curragh and St James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot, the O'Brien colt gave Sea the Stars

perhaps his biggest tussle when finishing a length second in the Juddmonte

International S. (Eng-G1) in August. The champion juvenile owns experience on an

all-weather track, tuning up for the Classic with a five-length romp in the

Diamond S. (Ire-G3) at Dundalk on October 2, and figures to relish the 1

1/4-mile distance.

Twice Over doesn't have the name recognition of the Coolmore horses, but the

English-based colt merits serious respect off his top-class victory in the 1

1/4-mile Champion S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket. The four-year-old couldn't be doing

any better for trainer Henry Cecil, winning three straight since receiving a

freshening this summer, and the 10-furlong specialist will be a live contender

in the Breeders' Cup.

American Pride: The American side is not without hope. SUMMER BIRD

(Birdstone) padded his growing resume with a superb one-length victory in

the October 3 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), becoming the first horse since Easy

Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont S. (G1), Travers S. (G1) and Gold Cup, and he earned a

whopping 112 BRIS Speed rating in the slop at Belmont Park. His recent Speed

numbers are outstanding, and the improving colt is a true 1 1/4-mile performer.

We may not have seen his best yet.

In order for Summer Bird to challenge, he'll need to handle the Pro-Ride.

That looms as a potential problem, given how Summer Bird was transferred from

John Sadler's barn in Southern California after reportedly having trouble with

the synthetic track, but he'll have three weeks to get acclimated to the surface

and is a different, much more mature horse now than he was last year. The

Pro-Ride is potentially a non-issue, but it's difficult to shake the sneaking

suspicion that it will hold him back.

QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) will look to get over the hump at 1 1/4

miles while making his first start on a synthetic track in the Breeders' Cup.

He's been brilliant at shorter distances, winning one-turn events like the

Fountain of Youth S. (G2) and Amsterdam S. (G2) with complete authority, and

established himself as the early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite with a smart score

in the Florida Derby (G1). Foot problems derailed his Triple Crown plans, and

the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has dropped his last two starts at 10 furlongs,

finishing second in the Gold Cup and third in the Travers. He's bred to handle

the distance, but the dark bay must still prove it.

Note that Quality Road shares the same sire with Raven's Pass, who made his

synthetic debut in the Classic and had never won at 1 1/4 miles.

EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat)

are Grade 1 turf winners who have shown an affinity for the Pro-Ride. The former

recorded a convincing one-length victory in the Santa Anita H. (G1) earlier this

year and exits a neck second in Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar. The Helen

Pitts-Blasi trainee runs well fresh beneath Julien Leparoux.

Gio Ponti reeled off four straight Grade 1 wins on the sod before coming up a

little short in the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1). Ten

furlongs is an optimal distance for the four-year-old, who captured the one-mile

Sir Beaufort S. (G3) in dramatic, last-to-first fashion over the Pro-Ride last

December, and the Christophe Clement charge will be running late under Garrett

Gomez.

ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) is as dangerous as any of the

American-based horses, but her status remains up in the air. Her connections

will decide between a title defense in the Ladies' Classic (G1) or a first

meeting against males. The tremendous closer loves the Pro-Ride, winning all

three attempts with consummate ease, and she's got nothing left to prove against

fillies and mares. She deserves the chance to become the first female Classic

winner.

Goodwood effect: GITANO HERNANDO (GB) (Hernando [Fr]) posted an

improbable 18-1 upset in the local Classic prep at Oak Tree, the October 10

Goodwood S. (G1), but is not under Breeders' Cup consideration. His connections

will point toward the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) in March. Runner-up COLONEL JOHN

(Tiznow) will need to improve significantly to challenge and is probably

better suited to the Dirt Mile (G1). Third-placer RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop

Kid) also looks too slow for Classic rivals, and the Marathon would probably be

a better fit for the long-distance runner.

MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) provided little reason for optimism with a

dull sixth in the Goodwood, his second straight dismal effort over the track

following a last-place finish in the 2008 Juvenile (G1), but bettors will be

happy to see the popular gelding in the Classic field. Knocked down to 3-1 in

the Goodwood, the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner will have his supporters regardless

of circumstances.

Next year: ETCHED (Forestry) improved to five-for-five in the

United States with a comfortable neck score in the October 16 Meadowlands Cup

(G2), and the Godolphin colorbearer is one to watch for next year at Churchill

Downs. Bred to excel on both turf and dirt, the long-striding colt appears to

own a very bright future if he stays healthy, and he's scheduled to make his

next start in the Clark H. (G2) at Churchill on November 27.

Dirt Mile outlook: Godolphin is loaded for the Dirt Mile, with a trio

of top contenders in MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled's Song), GIROLAMO (A.P.

Indy) and REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor). Midshipman wrapped up

championship honors with his victory in the 2008 Juvenile, and the once-beaten

colt returned from a near 11-month absence with an encouraging performance at

Belmont, netting a 101 BRIS Speed rating for his 3 1/4-length decision over a

tough group of allowance/optional claiming rivals.

Jerome H. (G2) winner Girolamo will be the one to beat if he handles his

synthetic debut. Since returning to the races in August, he's recorded three

sensational wins in New York. Regal Ransom left quite an impression in the Super

Derby (G2) last time, winning easily on the front end by 1 1/4 lengths, and the

one-mile distance is a good fit for the talented colt. However, Regal Ransom ran

poorly over the Pro-Ride in last year's Norfolk S. (G1).

FAMOUS NAME (Dansili [GB]), who exits a narrow third in the 1 1/8-mile

Prix Dollar S. (Fr-G2) at Longchamp, rates as the top Euro prospect. The

four-year-old colt has turned in several top-class performances at a mile this

season for Dermot Weld.

Marathon outlook: The 1 3/4-mile Marathon will feature a deeper field

that last year when Zappa (Afternoon Deelites) was the 3-1 second choice among

eight rivals. MUHANNAK (Ire) (Chester House), who posted a 12-1 upset in

the 2008 inaugural edition, doesn't look like much of a threat in his title

defense.

St Leger (Eng-G1) winner MASTERY (Sulamani [Ire]) and King

Edward VII (Eng-G2) victor FATHER TIME (Dansili [Ire]) will be the big

guns from Europe, and NITE

LIGHT (Thunder Gulch) is one of the leading contenders on the American side.

Upcoming: The next installment will feature a final analysis and

selections for the Classic, Dirt Mile and Marathon.