Commentary

COMMENTARY

FEBRUARY 22, 2013

Road to the Derby $1-million Showdown

by Ed DeRosa

TwinSpires.com ran this promotion last year but required 23 consecutive

winning $20 show bets -- 20 before the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands

and then the three Triple Crown races. This year 20 total is the magic number,

and if someone starts off with 17 in a row as was the case last year, then s/he

would be a Show Crown away from $1-million.

Again, easier said than done, but if winning a million dollars were easy

anywhere (even the track) then you'd never have heard about a bet called the

Rainbow 6. And it's not as if it hasn't almost been done. If five people can go

18/20 and one person can do 17 in a row, then 20/20 is doable.

Really, though, the $1-million prize is just a nice bonus if you get lucky

and run the table. The benefit of the Road to the Derby Showdown beyond the

million is that you get to keep your winnings and take a run at both a

guaranteed $10,000 prize pool for sweeping the Triple Crown and tickets to next

year's Kentucky Derby for cashing the most show bets during this year's prep

season.

Because each of the prizes reward being right more than being smart, the

proper strategy is to always select the starter you think is most

likely to finish third or better. With -- at minimum -- a share of $10,000

up for grabs, it is pound foolish to try to find value in the show pool when

playing this contest. Building shares should be your focus during the prep

season with survival being essential during the Triple Crown (you only cash in

on a share of the $10k if you hit all three classics).

Last year 17 individual players split the $10,000 with 200 shares among them

making each share worth $50. Mona Weaver was one of five players with 18 shares

but the only one to sweep the Triple Crown to earn $900 for her efforts.

This year, there will be 15 percent fewer races for building shares, and if

the ratio stays the same then that means each share would be worth $54.05. At

that price point, it's easy to see how hitting 10 bets at $2.20 makes more sense

than 8 at $4.

So fund

your TwinSpires.com account,

study up on this weekend's races, and start on

your path toward $1-million!