Dude awaits Classic challengers

BREEDERS' CUP FEATURE

OCTOBER 3, 2013

Dude awaits Classic challengers

by James Scully

The most recent start, an eye-catching 8 1/2-length romp in the August 24

Pacific Classic, came after a seven-week break and Game On Dude garnered the

July 6 Hollywood Gold Cup following an 11-week rest. The Charles Town Classic

and San Antonio both came after nine weeks off and the Santa Anita Handicap was

the only race this year not preceded by a freshening.

The nation's top dirt horse will return from a nine-week rest in the

Breeders' Cup Classic.

His BRIS Speed ratings are outstanding and the dark bay Kentucky-bred has the

home-field advantage (seven for eight) as well as the right running style for

Santa Anita. Game On Dude won't be scared by the competition, but the Classic

favorite still faces a significant challenge at the 1 1/4-mile distance.

Game On Dude is only five-for-10 at the Classic distance and has been the

controlling speed in most of his wins, allowing himself the opportunity for a

breather during the early stages. Ten furlongs is the biggest concern given the

presence of other serious speed in the Classic line-up (Fort Larned and perhaps

others) and the front-running Game On Dude will need the proper trip; he must

avoid exerting himself too much in order to save something for the stretch

drive.

It would be foolish to put it past him. Game On Dude is the horse to beat in

this year's Classic and despite any concerns, the classy gelding's got something

to prove after showing up flat last year.

Here is an early look at the main Classic contenders:

Game On Dude: Five-for-five this year, with convincing major wins in

the Santa Anita Handicap, Hollywood Gold Cup and Pacific Classic, he's in a

head-for-head battle with Wise Dan for Horse of the Year (that rival is headed

to the Mile) and likely controls his own fate given that the Classic is the

spotlight event. Perhaps the third time will be the charm for Game On Dude, who

figures to be cranked for his best after last year's disappointment. His

sluggish start was most memorable and Game On Dude should be much more involved

from the get-go.

Mucho Macho Man: We can debate who recorded the top performance in

last weekend's Breeders' Cup prep races, but Mucho Macho Man gets my vote. The

thought of him moving forward from the sterling 4 1/4-length victory is exciting

(earned a 113 BRIS Speed rating), but it's important to remember that

inconsistency is too often his calling card. Just when we think Mucho Macho Man

is ready to take the next step, he lets us down. It happened after his excellent

half-length second in last year's Classic, with the Awesome Again marking his

first win since July 2012, but the five-year-old remains very dangerous. Santa

Anita looks like his best track and the in-form horse has added the services of

Gary Stevens, who provides an edge in big-money events.

Fort Larned: Speed, speed, speed. Fort Larned caught a speed-favoring

oval in last year's Classic and nobody will be surprised to see the track

playing similarly this year. And trainer Ian Wilkes appears to have the

defending champ right where he wants him. After posting a superb win in the 2012

Whitney, Fort Larned took a step back when third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup

before delivering a career-best at Santa Anita. The five-year-old has

experienced ups and downs in 2013, but he was brilliant taking the Stephen

Foster over a strong field this summer and his final prep, last Saturday's

Homecoming Classic at Churchill Downs, served its purpose. Fort Larned was not

at his best despite winning, allowing a big lead to dwindle significantly while

tiring down the stretch, but that was the tightener Wilkes desired in order to

have the bay horse at his best on November 2. Fort Larned will be a handful if

he runs back to last year's Classic effort.

Ron the Greek: Circumstances are different this year. Ron the Greek

entered last year's Classic off a dull sixth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but

the six-year-old produced a devastating upset in the same race last Saturday,

equaling a career-best 112 Speed rating while drawing off to a 6 3/4-length

decision at 21-1. The Bill Mott trainee received some support in last year's

Classic (8-1) due to his success in the Santa Anita Handicap earlier that season

but was never a factor finishing fourth. His typical late-running style is

seldom favorable at Santa Anita, but the six-year-old horse showed more

tactical speed last time, generating huge E1 and E2 Pace ratings (94 and 119)

while racing closer to the pace. Those tactics figure to serve him well if Ron

the Greek can hold his form at Santa Anita.

Palace Malice: The Belmont Stakes winner was never a serious factor

finishing a clear second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but that doesn't hurt his

chances -- the last three Classic winners all lost the same race beforehand

(Fort Larned, Drosselmeyer and Blame). Palace Malice is a late foal (May 2) who

needed plenty of time before discovering his best form this summer, earning only

his second career victory with a surprisingly easy 3 1/4-length tally in the

final leg of the Triple Crown, and the dual stakes winner lost all chance in the

Travers following a disastrous start two races ago. His supporters will be

taking a "glass half-full" approach following his solid runner-up effort last

time because Palace Malice potentially has much more to offer. He's an ideal

candidate for the 1 1/4-mile distance and possesses a high cruising speed.

Will Take Charge: An intriguing prospect from the three-year-old

ranks, Will Take Charge will enter on the upswing for D. Wayne Lukas, recording

wins in the Pennsylvania Derby and Travers. He gutted out a nose score in the

Travers before posting a convincing 2 1/4-length triumph at Parx Racing, bearing

little resemblance to the deep closer we witnessed earlier this season with 97

E1 and 111 E2 Pace ratings last time, and it's easy to admire the progress he's

making. Whether the chestnut will be good enough to challenge top older horses

is a legitimate question, but Will Take Charge is headed in the right direction

presently.

Flat Out: Third in last year's Classic, Flat Out has done little wrong

while making his last five starts in New York, producing a couple of stakes wins

and three Grade 1 placings, but traveling is always a major concern for the

seven-year-old horse -- you must go back to 2010 to find his last win outside

the Empire State. Flat Out will look to rally into contention from off the pace,

but he's got a puncher's chance at best.

Paynter: Surprised to see him rating off the pace in midpack during

the Awesome Again but have to give him credit for a rallying second after

thinking he was through midway on the far turn. He's easy to root for, making a

miraculous recovery from a life-threatening illness to return at the highest

level, and his Speed ratings are encouraging (three century-topping numbers,

including a 108 last time). But I can't envision him offering a serious

challenge at 1 1/4 miles -- his best chance for success this year would be in

the Dirt Mile. Paynter didn't return to the races until June and has dropped all

three stakes attempts. He could still use a little more bottom to him and

there's nothing wrong with exercising a little more patience with hopes of

making a serious assault upon the 2014 Classic.

Graydar: He's not been confirmed for the Classic but figures to join

the mix following a nice win in the one-mile Kelso Handicap off of a lengthy

layoff. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt stamped himself as a Classic contender

earlier this season, recording excellent wins in the Donn Handicap and New

Orleans Handicap, and would add more speed to the equation. I have my doubts

about his effectiveness at 1 1/4 miles, but the gray four-year-old lays it all

on the line every time, dropping only one of six career starts.

Declaration of War: Santa Anita has played host to the only Euro-based

winners in Classic history (Raven's Pass & Arcangues) and Declaration of War

will be a major dark horse if he makes his dirt and U.S. debut as expected. A

multiple Group 1 winner at distances up to 1 1/4 miles this year, the

Irish-based colt will make his final prep this weekend in England for Aidan

O'Brien and could be easily overlooked in the Classic field regardless of how he

performs. But it's worth noting that the four-year-old possesses a useful

pedigree for dirt (by War Front and out of a Rahy mare) and O'Brien nearly

pulled off the coup with another talented runner bred to handle any surface,

Giant's Causeway, who came up a neck short to the mighty Tiznow in 2000.