Fair Grounds Notebook

FAIR GROUNDS NOTEBOOK

FEBRUARY 19, 2010

by Frank Cotolo

Fair Grounds presented a five-program week from February 12 through February

16, offering 47 races. There were no turf events over that span and the first

day was a sloppy theater for all nine events. With fast tracks the next four

days, the public-selections percentage dipped from its astounding three-week

streak, when it topped 40 percent, to 36 percent, which is sharp nonetheless.

As the road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) ensues, Fair Grounds presents a strong

menu of stakes, headlined by the Risen Star S. (G2) on Saturday as part of its

13-race Louisiana Derby Preview Day program. There are six stakes, including

four graded events, with an early first post of 12:10 p.m. (CST).

Bettors, there is a special all-stakes Pick 4 offered on races 7-10,

beginning with the Colonel Power S., around 3:13 p.m. The Risen Star is the 10TH

race and should go off at 4:43 p.m. The schedule and some analysis is available

below.

On the surface

With the main track handling all the action, little changed in the way of

winning style, even with one sealed-track program The overall winners are still

coming from off the pace, though the percentage has lowered from 70 to 49

percent.

However, for those of you following speed, be aware that wire-to-wire wins

were appearing at a generous 34-percent clip and being close to a front runner

and winning was responsible for 19 percent of the victories.

On the off track, all of the wire-to-wire winners were in sprints, typical

for an unbiased track. Then, the next four days' form held up, with different

styles of winning taking turns at various distances.

The stats are slightly skewed by one incident, a dead-heat on February 16.

One winner went wire-to-wire and the other was a speed stalker.

Trainers

Steve Asmussen had his most prolific winning week in a while, with nine

victories over the five days of racing. This still doesn't contribute to a

top-10 winning average but top-percentage trainer Victor Arceneaux didn't win a

race over that period, so the standings were jostled.

Steve Margolis, second-place in winning-percentage, won three, helping his

average. He has been consistent since we began this notebook in mid-December.

Four other trainers doubled: Carl Bowman, Josie Carroll, Sturges Dugoing and

Angel Montano. Two first-time starters scored, one for David Carroll and the

other for Montano.

Stakes

Louisiana Derby Preview Day presents a quartet of graded races on Saturday,

with sophomore colts and fillies in the spotlight.

The colts cross swords in the $300,000 Risen Star, where Lecomte S. (G3)

winner RON THE GREEK (Full Mandate) is the early choice in a field of a dozen

three-year-olds. A newcomer raising eyebrows, DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor),

could battle Ron the Greek on the toteboard as well as on the track, as he is

currently showing promise in the division. Next on the morning line is Grade 1

runner-up DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft).

One outsider interests us and would be quite a display on the tote if he is

anywhere near his 30-1 morning line. That horse is BRAVO WHISKEY (Smart Strike).

With only two starts since breaking his maiden, and all three those at Fair

Grounds, the colt has a stalking style that can prove beneficial in this 1

1/16-mile event. Sophomores tend to blossom this time of year, so it is no

stretch to take a developing colt and try to nab a great price.

DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon) is the obvious gal to beat in the $150,000

Silverbulletday S. (G3), also at 1 1/16 miles, being two-for-three so far with

no fresh experience and handled by Todd Pletcher. However, AGE OF HUMOR

(Distorted Humor), who goes to post for new conditioner Michael Maker, could be

up to the task of beating the morning-line favorite. Her 5-1 victory at a route

on Aqueduct's inner dirt is cause for alarm and makes the step up here a

positive move.

The $100,000 Mineshaft H. (G3), another 1 1/16-mile event on the main track,

presents the continuation of the four-year-old campaigns of 2009 headliners

GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) and FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy). But we will take the

outsider GOOD AND LUCKY (Wild Rush) to upset the top two, who he followed in a

stakes here in January.

Also on the card are the $60,000 Pan Zareta S. at six panels for distaffers;

the $60,000 Colonel Power S. for four-year-olds and up sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs

on the grass; and the $100,000 Fair Grounds Handicap (G3), also for

four-year-olds and up, going about nine turf furlongs.

HORSES TO WATCH

Friday (2/12)

2ND -- TRACK BULLY (Orientate) was a first-time starter slow to begin but

revved up on the inside and made up lots of ground to be second.

4TH -- POMEROSA PROSPECT (American Tribute) made a three-wide charge to the

lead but got caught.

Saturday (2/13)

3RD -- EMBRASSER (Kissin Kris) likes to close, a great style to go again at

Fair Grounds and perhaps break maiden winner status here.

10TH -- TRULY LUCKY (Truluck) is a bet back off of a sharp wire-to-wire win.

This Texas speedster could come back in a route, too, with lightning precision.

Sunday (2/14)

1ST -- BACKTRACK (Grand Slam) won at first crack and was claimed to go with

Gary Scherer next time, stepping up and a good bet-back investment.

Monday (2/15)

4TH -- SAM HE BE (Strategic Intent) stalked, led and wound up best of the

rest.

6TH -- DEPAUL (Dixieland Band) was rated well against the leader and needed

only one more kick to win it.

Tuesday (2/16)

3RD -- VICTORY READY (More Than Ready) forced a hot pace to lead and then

tired.

6TH -- HATHORS LEGACY (Buddha) sped to the lead unexpectedly and held the

front into the stretch at 23-1, finishing third.