Gulfstream Notebook

GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK

JANUARY 30, 2008

by Steve Zacks

Week Four in Review

By the end of Thursday's card, 214 races had been run. Of these, 14 were

stakes, 39 allowance races, 27 maiden special weights, 78 claiming races, 43

maiden claimers and 13 starter allowances.

The following provides some particulars about how some of the meeting's

leading trainers are currently operating. Perhaps you will find one or two

nuggets that will help your handicapping.

TODD PLETCHER: (9 Wins) Few surprises here. Not surprisingly, John Velazquez

has been aboard for all nine wins. Six have come with sophomores and four have

been females. Five have paid slightly better than 3-1 odds. Most come directly

from Palm Beach Downs though some have moved over to Gulfstream for some time.

Six have been absent for six or more weeks; two winners were first-time starters

(both used Lasix). Most have multiple works, on a regular pattern, four or five

furlongs (all but one had at least one five furlong work), breezing, neither

very fast or very slow, though four did record recent bullets. Two winners were

in a claiming races, three were dropping and one went from maiden to stakes (his

only repeater). Four wins came on turf, one with a surface switch; distance

changes were not significant. Most showed signs of current form or condition by

being up close in their previous start; most were in condition by the turn in

their winning races, especially the dirt winners. All were making their first

starts in Florida, i.e. shipping in.

PETER WALDER: (11 wins) Velazquez has ridden the majority; Peter and John V.

have along-term association. Age and sex is not a factor. Horses are spotted to

win and most are bet; one escaped at 5-1, two at about 5-2, and the other five

were below 2-1. There is one key, though it applies to several of his losers as

well: 10 winners were recently claimed (first five starts since the claim) and

five were making their first start in the new barn. Four were up in class, seven

down. Distance changes were minimal, variations on the sprint or route theme.

Works seem to be infrequent though the winners returned anywhere from 22 to 296

days; all had run last at Calder or Gulfstream; Peter is stabled at Gulfstream.

A recent blinker change appeared in three winners' profiles. There were some

positives in the last-race running lines for most winners. To best describe the

outfit we will quote a Neil Diamond song: "money talks."

NICK ZITO: (8 wins) He has used four different jockeys. All have been bet

with the best price being 7-2. He is based at Palm Meadows. Those absent 31 days

or longer have multiple works, though the work pattern is frequently less than

regular. He works four furlongs mostly with the occasional five-furlong move.

Proximity to the race is anywhere from six to 14 days at the meeting (his norm).

Usually, there is at least one work in even :12s (:48) within the last 30 days.

At Gulfstream, he breaks a lot of maidens and wins preliminary allowance races.

He has won a couple with stretch outs, a couple with blinker changes; he

frequently runs soft entries. All but one of his winners has had positive form

signals from their prior start regardless of the time away. That one took a big

class drop in claiming price; he is usually deadly with this move. Six of his

wins have come with non-claimers. He also loves to win at Keeneland, so keep

your eyes open for next time!

WAYNE CATALANO: (6 wins) The Catman is stabled at Gulfstream; five winners

ran last at Hawthorne, one at Churchill. He has used several riders, most of

whom he has had a past history. All were in claimers and returning from layoffs

of 30-to-75 days; all had multiple works, most had one of five furlongs as part

of that series of works; three had bullets (a solid work with a new horse is

usually a positive signal from him). Also a work back within 17 days of the last

race is an added plus. He runs them where he thinks they can win, up or down.

Three were new to his barn via claim or switch; three had recent victories. The

horses are usually bet, with 3-1 the best price available.

KEN MCPEEK: (6 wins) Kent Desormeaux has been aboard four of them. Four have

been odds-on, with one leaving the gate at 7-1. Most have come off layoffs of

less than 90 days with fairly regular prepping. Most have at least one

five-furlong work in the mix, and more often than not one or more of the works

are in even 12s. Surface switches are frequent, not uncommon for a Kentucky

trainer, but several did experiment with turf. Also five of the six were making

their first start in Florida. He will drop them to win. All but one showed some

signs of form in the preceding race.

KIRK ZIADIE: (5 wins) Florida-based high percentage trainer has five

lower-class wins at the meeting. He is deservedly well-respected at the windows

and high odds are rare. Prime jockey has been Jose Lezcano. Four came back from

layoffs (40-90 days) and one was repeating on five days rest. Most of his

winners (and losers) show works from four-to-eight furlongs and he often

finishes up the pattern with a work within five or six days of today's race. He

is effective with new stock, claims or switches, and when he does get one in

shape a series of good races might be expected. He runs them where they can be

competitive.

There are a lot of Kentucky- and New York-based trainers who may use this

meeting to prep for Keeneland, Churchill, Aqueduct and Belmont where the purses

may be significantly larger or where the owners are domiciled. The occasional

trainer may get hot for a short period when the owners are visiting South

Florida over the winter.

Trainers such as Allen Jerkens, Zito and Dale Romans, to name a few, can be

tough to figure as to intent: are they serious today or merely prepping for the

spring elsewhere? The more you know about how a trainer operates the better the

clues might be. For example, I personally like to see a close-to-the-race work

from Romans before I play him. The work preferably comes within five days of the

race, is at five furlongs or tied to a recent five-furlong work. I only play him

here when he sends the signal. I miss winners this way, but I also find that it

keeps me off a substantial number of losers. When he does use the set-up, my

confidence level is higher in regards to his intent. He has four wins, one with

a five-day, five furlong work, and another with four furlongs, four days with a

prior work at five furlongs. He did win a Sunshine Millions race with a

lightly-raced filly; even though I expected that he was deadly serious I passed

on her as the desired works were not there.

If you focus on certain specifics for various trainers, you can often find

something he or she likes to do with many of their winners. If you find a

nugget, remember it  and when you see it, get a square price and make the

play. The key in evaluating your idea is this: as long as the horse shows up and

runs well with your key, then  you are on to something good! They do not

always have to win to prove your case: they have to run well. A trainer can only

place a well-intended runner in the right spot. He does not know exactly who the

competition will be or if another has a surprise performance in store.

To take this method of play to the next level, one must also follow a

qualification process that determines whether or not you should actually bet the

horse you have identified as being ready and pointed to today's race. When you

can put the two of them together in a working format, you are definitely on the

pathway to success.

Not all races are run on the race track the same way they look on paper. As

long as most of your horses are in the hunt, then you are on the right track.

Things happen when the gates open. If you are doing things right, you will win

your fair share, and probably also suffer some heart-breaking defeats. The

better you learn to accept these defeats the better you will survive the mental

aspects of betting on horses.

Let us take a quick look at the two Sunshine Million sprints at Gulfstream on

Saturday by way of possible explanation. BENNY THE BULL (Lucky Lionel) was the

odds-on choice and produced at least the performance the public expected,

winning rather easily as an even-money should. In the next race, the sophomore

filly sprint division, 6-5 favorite Blitzing (Montbrook) simply did not show up.

The winner, second-choice AMERICAN COUNTY (Gibson County), was trained by Dale

Romans. She had nothing close to the preferred preparation that I look for while

a couple of the others did match my trainer keys, so I left her off all of my

plays for that reason.

Reviewing the race indicates that three of the fillies had problems at the

gate or start, which may partially explain, why American County was loose by a

length after a quarter-mile in a field with a lot of early speed. Perhaps

Blitzing was reacting to her new top in the prior race, but she never fired.

Sindy Jacobson (More Than Ready) may not have handled the switch to the dirt in

her debut on that surface. If the start had been clean, perhaps American County

would have been under pressure and not lasted. If Blitzing had showed up with

her A race, or Sindy Jacobson, what would the outcome have been? No one knows

for sure.

Unpredictable events happen all the time. Certainly check to see if you made

a mistake, but if external events beyond your control, changed the outcome, turn

the page and go on to the next race. There may also come a time in the future

when you can put all this information to good use too. The next time these

fillies get together, perhaps the circumstances will have changed. If you

remembered that Blitzing and Sindy Jacobson may have been compromised and that

American County may have been the beneficiary of a perfect trip, you might be

able to turn things in your favor.

Interesting Stats for Week Four Winners

The following figures are taken from my personal data base (occasional

adjustments are made)! The first figures are for this week's races. The

following number in [square brackets] is the figure for the meet to date.

Number of Races this Week: 56 races [214].

Winners: Ran Last At: Calder --17 [85]; Aqueduct -- 2 [19]; Churchill -- 6

[21]; Turfway --1[6]; Gulfstream -- 17 [26].

Winners: Stabled At: Gulfstream -- 17 [78]; Calder -- 20 [68]; Payson Park --

3 [8]; Palm Beach Downs -- 1 [8]; Palm Meadows- 13 [48].

Winners: Days Since last Race: within 14 days -- 6 [24]; 15-30 days -- 23

[70]; 31-90days -- 20 [98]; 91+ days -- 1 [8]; first-time starters -- 2 [9].

Winners: Works: worked since last race -- 39 [150]; worked 6 furlongs or

farther -- 2 [12]; one work of at least 5 furlongs -- 15 [67]; worked within

five days -- 11 [52]; either six or seven days before the race -- 15 [52].

Winners: In Shape: Using at least one up-close call in the preceding start as

a sign of being in shape: 34 [133]; repeaters 8 [27].

Winners: Running Style: Early: (within two lengths at either or both of the

first two calls, sprint or route) turf -- 7 [14] of 29 [60]; dirt -- 33 [111] of

99 and [154].

Winners: Surface Changes -- 7 [31]; off artificial surfaces -- 3 [9].

Winners: Class Changes: numbered -- 38 [136]; dropped -- 32 [96]; rose -- 6

[40] [last-out winners: 2 rose, 2 stayed the same and 4 dropped in class!]; msw

to mcl -- 0 [6]; drop from stakes -- 5 [16].

Winners Distance Changes: 14 [76]; shortened up -- 4 [39]; stretched out --

10 [37] (a furlong or more and/or added or dropped a turn).

DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (1/23)

The rains came, the track was sloppy and the races were taken off the turf.

There were multiple scratches from various races.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Off the turf. The main track was rated sloppy all day long. Being on or close

to the pace was usually the route to the winner's circle. Horses were able to

make a late run outside too, but often the winners were long gone, with

favorable pace scenarios for them.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Ken McPeek (a maiden special and a maiden claimer) and Kirk Ziadie (a claimer

and a starter allowance) won two races each. Races were won by nine different

jockeys.

Horses or Races of Interest

The 6TH race, a $16K starter allowance, featured both a fast pace which set

up a quickly run race. Early speed carried the day with little change of

position. The winner, BLUE PEPSI LODGE (Pioneering), posted his fourth victory

in a row. He is now four-for-six in the off going. It might be a good race as

the fastest pace and race of the day.

In the day's 3RD race, MY BABY BABY (Bernstein) also took a liking to the wet

surface and wired a compact field of sophomore fillies in just her second career

start. She set a fast pace and widened. These might prove to be races of

interest. Certainly these winners were solid today, but how much of will carry

over to the next race will depend upon how you evaluate and handle dominant

winners over wet surfaces.

DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (1/24)

The track condition was muddy for the first three races, then changed to good

for the races 4 through 9.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Races were once again off the turf. The track was basically fair once again

as horses won from everywhere. It looked to be just the match-ups for the day,

but most of the winners were off the inside, save MAKE THE POINT (Menifee) in

the 8TH.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Each race was won by a different trainer and different rider today. Walder

won one to take the lead in the trainer standings. Velazquez managed a single

victory to retain his lead in the rider's race.

Horses or Races of Interest

There were two races that were run in good time for the day, and they

probably were the day's two best races.

The 2ND, an entry level two-turn allowance for older horses, was run in quick

time relative to the day's other races. The pace was honest and the final time

was a quick 1.49.4 over the good going. Romans had BULLET RAIN (Red Bullet)

properly set up (a five-furlong work five days out) to score his second career

win in his first start going two turns.

In the 8TH, MAKE THE POINT (Menifee), making his first start since Saratoga

and since moving into the care of Kiaran McLaughlin, set a relatively fast pace

(based on the way the track played for most of the day) to win comfortably in

the entry-level allowance sprint for sophomore colts and geldings. Exiting a

troubled trip in the Saratoga Special (G2), he assumed command after a clean

break here and went about his business, taking inside pressure before drawing

off. The way he ran today, it looks as if he was more relaxed than in his

earlier outings. He might be worth a look next time. He was the only winner

running inside for the entire trip.

DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (1/25)

The day before the Sunshine Millions featured only one non-claiming race.

They were back on the turf.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Turf was rated as good and the rails were placed at 72 feet. There were two

sprints and two routes. All winners raced in close proximity to the lead through

most of their races and the times indicated that the turf was less than firm.

The dirt track seemed to play a little bit on the slow side; however making a

judgment was difficult as there were no high quality races with a contested pace

scenario. The allowance for older fillies at seven furlongs was a paceless

affair with a small field.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Pletcher dropped the South African-bred HEAT OF THE NIGHT (SAf) (Casey Tibbs

[Ire]) into a claimer for the first time. But he prepared the horse a little

differently than is his norm. The six-year-old last raced at Churchill 82 days

ago. He had worked five times in the interim -- all moderate four-furlon moves

-- which is normal for many of his turf runners and was normal work for this

horse. The works were regularly spaced, but stopped 20 days before the race. For

a trainer who normally works quite close to a race (my database indicates that

about 90 percent of the winners worked between two and 10 days), one had to deal

with this issue before making a decision about his readiness. This race was not

going to be a walkover either; it was a contentious race with a stakes winner or

two in the mix and Heat of the Night figured to need a top effort to win.

If you collect data of various types on trainers who win a lot of races, you

are always going to find horses that are on the fringes of what is normal. Be it

with the preparation -- distance, spacing, speed and proximity to race-day of

the works -- or class and distance maneuvers, or any other factor, there are

always going to be those situations which raise significant doubts. There is no

standard way to deal with these situations. Each situation must be handled

individually. If your judgment is correct, you win.

Remember this though: Winning trainers like to win races; they usually send

out ready runners and place them in a spot where they think they can win; when

horses prove that they cannot win at a level -- either because they are not good

enough (after experiments with younger runners) or because they are physically

challenged -- they do not take too long to drop them, and they do drop them far

enough. When they make these moves, they usually expect to win the race. They

have the horse as ready as they can, considering the circumstances surrounding

the individual horse. If the horse looks like he can win, then it is likely that

he will show up today, and if things work out he will win. Price should be a

determining factor too. But also remember that even the best of trainers rarely

win more than one-in-four at the best of times.

Good trainers treat each horse as an individual and do cater to their

individual needs. Heat of the Night managed to win by a neck as the betting

favorite at 7-5. No one claimed him, but they did take two others out of the

race for $62,500.

Cornelio Velazquez managed a pair of wins on the day; Velazquez cemented his

place atop the leader board by winning a trio, one for Pletcher and two for

Florida-based trainers. A clue here: when you see the meet's leading rider climb

aboard a local runner, take note. Interestingly, the public did just that. All

three wins came on the turf; all three winners were sent off as the betting

favorite. If you like the horse in the race, you are likely to get a shorter

price. But then with the, or a, top rider aboard, you are likely to get a

confident ride and encounter fewer mistakes, so if you honed in on the proper

horse, you might get the money -- even if less than you had hoped for!

DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (1/26)

The weather co-operated for Sunshine Millions Day with the sun shining on

both coasts and the races went off without a hitch at Santa Anita. This was the

best day of racing to date featuring several top performances in the stakes

races.

Benny the Bull turned in the star performance of the day, running better than

expected. He was far more aggressive early and while he had to search for room,

he smoothly changed gears up and back to dominate the field in a strong

performance very close to the track record. He will likely be heard from later

in the year.

American County was an un-pressured winner of the sophomore filly sprint.

Once she was able to take command after the break, she was all set for an easy

trip on the front end and there were no significant late challenges mounted. She

ran as quickly early as the older males, but did slow considerably in the later

going. Whether or not a cleaner start for several of her opponents would have

changed the early pace scenario will never be known. The fact that two of the

shippers did not run their "A" races left American County as the deserving

winner.

GINGER PUNCH (Awesome Again) showed her Eclipse-winning form in taking down

the Distaff in strong fashion. She stalked a very fast pace and had all the

answers when the questions were asked. She was 3-10 and looked every bit the

part!

WAR MONGER (War Chant) tried hard to find enough trouble to get himself beat

as the favorite, as he was aggressive when in behind horses early in the

running. Once he found daylight, he showed the mark of a good horse by

accelerating rapidly and running by his opposition almost as if they were

standing still. He came his last three-eighths in under 35 second -- racehorse

time at nine furlongs! In Bill Mott's capable hands, War Monger is likely to be

heard from often later in the year.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Dirt was fast and played fair with runners winning in a variety of paths and

positions. It is normal for horses that are in position to win more often than

those coming from the clouds. Also the good horses were running faster than the

slower ones. A track made for handicappers!

The turf was rated firm with the rails at 72 feet. The sprint was won on the

front end, the route from the back.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Ten different trainers and nine jockeys won races today. Prado won both

Sunshine Millions sprints.

Horses or Races of Interest

DR. MOHRBACHER (Deputy Minister) had more than his fair share of trouble in

behind runners and searching for a path to run in the 5TH race, a cheap

conditioned claimer. He showed run several times when he did find daylight

before getting into trouble again. He was well-backed today, but was certainly

better than his race here. He is worth a look next outing if he has a little

time, perhaps a rider change and perhaps going a little farther where he may not

be as rushed. This is a betting outfit -- or most of their live horses take

serious backing at the windows -- so do not expect too much value.

COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) was very professional in winning his second

allowance race going two turns in his first start in a couple of months.

However, his final fractions were somewhat slower and he will have to do a lot

better if he is to step up to stakes company in his next start. He could move

forward off that race, but will likely have to if he is to successfully handle

better company.

Of interest cross-country, QUITE A BRIDE (Stormy Atlantic), who won a stakes

on Gulfstream's opening day, exceeded my expectations at Santa Anita. After a

soft stalking trip over the good turf, the Mott-trained mare took over with a

quick move at the top of the stretch and was able to hold off the favored

Nashoba's Key (Silver Hawk).

DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY (1/27)

Following a good day of racing on Sunshine Millions Saturday, Sunday featured

only one small-field allowance race, for older runners, and the Appleton H. (G3)

on the grass; the rest of the races were mostly for conditioned claimers, from

maidens to non-winners of three. For some reason, the track was playing much

slower than it was on the previous day -- or was it merely a function of the

horses that were running?

Is an allowance race an allowance race? NOT ALWAYS! Check out the 3RD race

from Sunday, a non-winner of two other than route test. DEPUTY INDY (A. P.

Indy), a six-year-old gelding, rates as a proven loser in this condition (with

at least 10 failures); he owns a two-for-26 record with six seconds and nine

thirds. In his favor is the fact that he generally shows up; his problem may be

that he is simply not good enough to be an allowance runner at this level. Were

he not bred in the purple and had he not cost $350K, he probably would have

found himself in a claimer a long time ago. If and when he comes up against a

very weak field (apparently weaker than I thought it was before the race was

run), he might win, because he does at least show up and try. He ran in such a

race today. In my opinion, he won only because the race fell apart and none of

the others could really run, or if they could were not ready to do so today.

The allowance races for older horses at Gulfstream have been a tricky

situation for the player for many years. A proper approach to these races is to

scan the field and rate them as either a legitimate allowance race, or an

"owners and breeders phony" allowance race. If there are several lightly-raced

and still developing four- or five-year-olds, with only one or two failures in

the classification, then it might be considered one of the former and treated as

an allowance race. If the horse in question has run to race pars recently and

show some competitive spirit, he might be seen to have some upside potential. If

there is only one in the race and he/she seems to be ready to run, your decision

becomes simple.

There are more of these non-winners of one, two or three other than allowance

races, which fit the latter category. Save the odd runner, that has had a

history of growing pains and infirmity and might still turn out to be a "decent"

runner, these can turn out to be very, very weak races indeed. The fillies and

mares with residual pedigree value and questionable ability often make up most

of the contestants in many of these events. Occasionally the same goes for the

male versions. Many of these are really claimers in allowance clothing. Be extra

careful when evaluating the field and be very demanding in qualifying runners.

Horses of proven ability in claiming or non-allowance events do merit serious

consideration if they are in good form and match up favorably. If and when races

look to be very weak relative to the race pars, then occasionally, the "honest"

type of limited ability might just win. In my opinion that is what happened

today.

Being aware of this concept might help you to avoid a lot of losers! Not

making a losing bet -- especially if it is a bad bet -- is almost as good as

winning!

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Turf was rated firm with the rails at 72 feet. With no major surprises on the

turf today, the course was playing fairly to the best horse on the day with the

right trip. Interestingly the highest odds on the lawn were 12-1; the BRIS

Ultimates PPs with Comments did point out that the winner had the best figure at

the distance and was dropping from an allowance optional claimer to a

non-winners of two claimer, which probably would have meant a better race was in

the offing. The runner was also switching from one top rider to another, so he

might have been a bit of an overlay!

The dirt was listed as fast. Most of the times were on the slow side. The

suspicion is that it was much the quality of the horses running today as it was

the track surface.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Walder won another to move back atop the trainer list. Zito won with a

big-time dropper, JAZZ MASTER (Dixieland Band), who went from $62,500 to

$12,500. He did have to run a very determined effort, going to the front and

taking pressure from both sides in an extended stretch drive. Surprisingly, no

one reached for him. Off that effort he might be worth a good look next time

out. While the race looked very slow on raw times that degree of fight is not

seen in too many young warriors. Maybe he has found his proper level and will

win right back if not spotted beyond his likely level. When he figures to get

into the game early, he seems to run his race.

Prado was the only dual winner in the jockey race and looks to be ready to

assume a place in the top five very soon.

DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (1/28)

Three non-claiming races, all for older runners, marked the closing day of

week four.

Walder stands atop the trainer standings with 11 wins. Pletcher has nine and

Zito has eight, Catalano and McPeek round out the top five.

Velazquez has 30 victories atop the jockey standings. Coa is next with 24,

followed by Lezcano and Elvis Trujillo with 18 a piece. Desormeaux and Velasquez

are tied with 14 apiece, and Prado has 13.

Leading turf riders: Velazquez has 10. Coa, Desormeaux, Lezcano, Prado and

Trujillo have six apiece.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Fast track and firm turf. Once again, I thought the track was fair and

subject to the race match-up. As is usual on a fair racing surface, saving

ground can prove crucial to winning and a number of today's winners on both

surfaces were inside early and angling out for the stretch drive.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Dan Hurtak won a couple of races on the day. Desormeaux had a hat trick and

Velazquez won two. Watching the former find room in the turf sprint was perhaps

the most exciting happening of the day.