Gulfstream Notebook

GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK

MARCH 5, 2008

by Steve Zacks

Food for Thought

Many players, particularly of the more seasoned variety, have been somewhat

disgruntled with the quality of racing at the current Gulfstream meeting. An

analysis of the races carded over the last two weeks indicates that there were

18 maiden special weights, 24 allowance races of all varieties and four graded

stakes. The rest were for mostly cheaper claimers, maiden claimers, conditioned

claimers with a few starter allowances thrown in. So, gentlemen, why not try

this for next year: run three days a week at Calder where many or most of the

competitors are already based, and run a high quality meeting on the weekends at

Gulfstream, featuring no claiming races, lots of grass racing and lots of higher

class allowance and stakes races. This would give winter racing a new focus and

handicappers would no doubt love to have to deal with full competitive and

contentious fields of higher quality runners. They would support this in droves!

I know I would!

Week Nine in Review

When the public makes bad decisions, you do not have to go along for the

ride! There were a number of races on both coasts where horses were overbet when

trying new things. The difference between a good and a bad bet is often the

odds.

When a young or improving horse is trying something new as to class, distance

or surface, they can at best be only a good speculative play! And a good

speculative play demands a fair price. Most humans do things better with

experience. Most horses are the same. If the horse is a square price when trying

something new, then he can be a good speculative bet. If he is odds on, he is

not likely a good bet, even if he wins the race. If the bet down horse is not

proven at today's assignment, you might want to go shopping for another runner

to put on the ticket in your serial wagers or to try to beat him with an overlay

in the win pool. Of course passing the race is also another viable alternative.

In Friday's 8TH race, a non-winners of two allowance race, Sightseeing

(Pulpit) made his return to the races. He would be trying the turf for the first

time. I was originally interested in him because of the work pattern, the

connections and the dropping out of a stakes-race angle. However, he was also

likely to be well backed and in fact went off at 3-2 in a 10-horse field.

Considering that he also had no history of performing at his best when fresh,

there were too many knocks and/or questions about him to consider at a very

short price. So that either meant passing the race or shopping for another

logical and therefore overlaid runner should the public be over-zealous in their

support for him. Not all do you find a horse to play and sometimes you simply

must walk away.

Sightseeing is a big strong physical specimen and perhaps not quick and agile

as many top turf runners are. He might be one of those lumbering horses that, on

turf, will need everything to go his way in order to win. Whilst he had faced

some tough company last year he was questionably suffering from the chandelier

syndrome. His female line (from Pleasant Colony) suggested more stamina than

turf too.

At five minutes to post, he was at less than 2-1 on the tote; he was a bad

favorite and at least a pass was demanded.

There were other examples of questionable favorites when horses with

handicapping flaws were sent off at low odds. Sometimes you put a horse on your

watch list and are inclined to give the race less than proper scrutiny because

of that runner. This can prove to be a costly flaw in the process.

I am sometimes human myself; I occasionally get caught liking a horse and

betting him even though I know he is an underlay. I might have a positive

mindset about him and as a result I do not handicap a race properly; then I

might miss something that I should not!

The Davona Dale S. (G2) at Gulfstream on Sunday made a similar point in less

dramatic fashion. BSHARPSONATA (Pulpit) had five wins from eight starts,

including the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G2) in her latest, a sprint which was

not her best game. On the other hand, Game Face (Menifee) had two sprint wins in

succession, including her last in the Old Hat (G2) by open lengths. She was

facing a proven winner and trying a longer distance. Which one should have been

favored? Which one should have been 3-5 and which one 5-2?

The lessons to be learned are: do not be afraid to walk away from a first

choice with flaws or speculative underpinnings if too many people and too much

money share your opinion; and be very careful to look at a race properly even

when one of your watch list horses is there. Make sure that the odds fit the

profile!

DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (2/27)

It was for the most part a relatively formful day with several bet-down

runners not faring as well as expected; still no winner paid more than $13,

suggesting that lower-odds runners were winning the races where the favorites

proved vulnerable. There were a couple of modest allowances and four maiden

races, three of them for claimers at a more or less Calder at Gulfstream day at

the races.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

The wind was blowing down the backstretch affecting the pace of the races and

the cheaper horses seemed to be more affected by it. While some attempted to

find cover heading into the wind, most were proximate to the pace during much of

the running. There were no pure wire-to-wire wins on either surface

The turf was firm with the rails placed at 60 feet. The wind made some of the

late fractions a little less impressive than they otherwise might have been.

The times on the dirt were somewhat slow but the wind was the likely cause.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Edgar Prado was the only dual winner on the day. Both came in the allowance

races, one dirt and one turf, and both were trained by New York-based

conditioners.

Horses or Races of Interest

CONTENTIOUS (Giant's Causeway), a four-year-old filly, got a chance to run on

turf in her second North American start and turned in a sterling performance in

a level two allowance. It appeared that the drifting out was not a major factor,

though how much time there is between races will be an indicator for sure. Group

3-placed in Germany and multiple stakes-placed in England, Contentious won this

1 1/16-mile turf affair very easily and looked ready to move forward.

STRATOSTAR (Pulpit) tried to do everything to give one of the others a chance

to win in a 8 1/2-furlong, turf starter allowance. He he looked the best going

in on paper but after a tardy start, he was always stuck on the outside.

However, he left little doubt as to which one was best in the end, drawing clear

to a one-length decision. While the pace was a bit on the slow side he did

finish up well and looks to be the king of these starters right now. If he runs

back in an appropriate spot with the proper preparation, he could do it again.

DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (2/28)

It was a light day of racing in the class department, with but one

non-claiming event on the day. There were few races of interest other than the

tightening of the trainer race.

Recent winners were sparse today, a product of the cheaper races no doubt;

maiden winners were making starts six, seven and eight -- too many for much

confidence!

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Fast and firm with the rails at 60 feet again. Both surfaces seemed to me to

be relatively fair, but that is my personal perspective. If I accord the track a

bias, the track must show it to me. Favored front-runners winning isn't a big

surprise.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Top jockeys captured many of the races today: John Velazquez won three, Kent

Desormeaux two and Edgar Prado and Jose Lezcano each guided one winner. Eddie

Nunez is now three-for-four when riding for Wayne Catalano. Luca Panici set a

loose and controlled pace aboard ROMANTICA (Jeblar) to dominate one of the day's

turf routes as a bit of an overly.

On the trainer side, Peter Walder tied Todd Pletcher for second with one win.

The problem with him is that most of his horses are over bet and not enough of

them win to support that. Catalano won the late double to move into a tie with

the suddenly silent Bill Mott, and Kenny McPeek won one for the second day in

row to line up just behind the aforementioned duo.

DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (2/29)

It was another modest card with but one allowance and one maiden race on the

docket. The public had a tough time with some of the races and there were a

couple of overlays and prices. Very often when you check the prices it is not so

much the runners themselves, but rather the names of the connections. With

tongue in cheek, it was amateur day, so to speak. Three trainers were winning

their first race of the meeting and two for the second time. One rider was

winning for the first and another for the third time. Lezcano won a pair.

Pletcher notched a win to tie for the lead, with first-time starter FUJITA (Lion

Hearted) at a $19.60 mutuel in the finale.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Track was fast and the turf was firm with the rails at 60 feet. Both surfaces

saw winners coming from up close and off the pace as well as inside and out.

Fair and fair is the way I saw it again. It isn't boring though when you can

have the confidence to bet any horse you like, even if his running style might

be contrary to the prevailing opinion. If there is one single positive highlight

to this race meeting, the fairness of the racing surface might be it.

DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (3/1)

The day's feature was the Gulfstream Park H. (G2) at 9 1/2 furlongs. The

winner, SIR WHIMSEY (Jump Start), was making his fourth start for new trainer

Jimmy Toner. He has improved since the change in stables and was winning for the

second time in a row and without blinkers. Sometimes it only takes one small

change to turn a horse around. He earned the victory with a good effort and

runner up Fairbanks (Giant's Causeway) did have his share of problems, some of

which were due to his apparent sharpness, and the rest while trying to get the

best ground-saving trip. I would have to think that there is more upside to the

winner than there is to the latter.

Pletcher tried to stretch his impressive debut winner Understatement

(Distorted Humor) out in a bit of a hurry -- most likely to try to find out if

he had a Kentucky Derby (G1) prospect -- and while he ran a game and determined

race on the lead under pressure, he came up short in the stretch drive. Most of

Pletcher's good horses tend to get about five weeks off following optimal

efforts and I would have to think there is still potential here -- if he is

handled more patiently before his next start. The race was not fast, but

Understatement did not give up.

A recent win was on the resume of seven of the eight winners of the races for

winners. Both maiden winners were making their second career starts. If you can

figure out which ones to play, this can be a lucrative source of reasonably to

high-priced winners. Several clues are: a class drop, some trouble, some money

showing for debut, better trainer stats for the trainer with his second-time

starters (than for the debut category), and karma changes and works between

races or before the first that suggest he can run.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Fast and firm (rails at 60 feet) was the order of the day. There were no fast

races or paces of particular note on the day, so the dirt track may have been a

bit on the slow side. Winners were generally in touch on the turn and did come

up the inside and outside on both surfaces.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Pletcher notched one victory to climb back to the top of the standings alone.

Velazquez was the only dual winner in the jockey colony.

Horses or Races of Interest

(see the day's Daily Review.)

DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY (3/2)

Another moderate card on the class front; the stakes was interesting with the

best horse winning!

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Track was rated as fast though many of the races were on the slower side; in

many cases it might have been slow horses. The turf was firm with the rails at

60 feet. The sprint was won up front and the route was won from off the pace

with somewhat of an overlay -- in for the lowest tag ever, second blinkers and

some of the best turf ratings against better, with a top five jockey aboard. I

hate to say it again but the surfaces are playing fair; keeping in mind that

most races are won by being in proximity to the pace at the four-furlong or

six-furlong call, I still feel comfortable betting on a horse that will be

coming from off the pace, and usually if I am wrong, I will find a reason other

than the racing surface as an explanation. And do not forget, the cheaper the

races are the less likely the horses are to run by another, though they do

inherit when the pace collapses.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Alan Iwinski is back in form with a couple of wins on the weekend. He is

doing the same things he was before his leave of absence due to illness. He is

always one to respect. Watching good riders do their thing often tells you why

they win a lot of races. JR (Velazquez) takes no prisoners early when he wants

to go to the front. He did this on an Iwinski on Saturday and the Ward on the

turf today. He won another two today and is narrowing the gap. Prado won a

couple as well and he has come alive of late. Lezcano remains the steadiest

performer of the top five, with fewer down periods and fewer top horses for the

top trainers at the meeting. He is an improved rider these days and he does

understand saving ground, and patience. He will win a lot of races with these

tactics and will get you a lot of prices.

Horses or Races of Interest

BLACK SPOT (Honour and Glory) ran several ticks faster than the stakes race

several races later. He set a slower pace under pressure throughout before

drawing off. Iwinski was and probably still is very good at keeping a horse in

form. The recent claim could win a couple of more starters before the meeting is

over; whether he is up to the two other than condition remains to be seen, but

if he goes there next, take a careful look. He did run an improved race today.

HEY BYRN (Put It Back) handily won the two-turn, non-winners of two in slow

time today. Considering that there are a number of horses with Derby aspirations

filling the races these days -- with some being rushed to do so -- the races are

often suspect. He is an improving runner; but he earlier failed twice in local

stakes company. Time may soon tell whether it was a weak race or the other

possibility is that he is a very live prospect!

DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (3/3)

It was a dull day of racing with the races coming off the grass and only two

non-claiming events, which were maiden specials.

Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf

Winners came from all over on the dirt, but being in contention by the turn

was helpful as usual.

Trainers and Jockeys of Note

Lezcano and apprentice Pascacio Lopez each won a couple. Velazquez had a good

week with another win today and is drawing closer to Eibar Coa to tighten up the

jock's race. Lezcano is third, Desormeaux and now Prado round out the leading

quintet.

Pletcher is back atop the trainer list. Nick Zito comes next and Walder,

Mott, McPeek and Catalano round out the top sextet.