Gulfstream Notebook

GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK

JANUARY 2, 2008

Looking ahead to 2008 Gulfstream

by Steve Zacks

The 2008 Gulfstream Park Race meeting opens on Thursday and runs

until April 20. Over the 16 weeks, there is racing six days a week (until

mid-March, when Wednesdays are dropped), Wednesday through Monday, and a first

post at 12:50 p.m. (EST).

This is a meet horse players point to during the early part of the year. It

features many races for young developing sophomores and it is the scene where

many recent Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup winners make their early season

starts.

Success at the meeting can be tricky; various barns approach the meeting with

different agendas, some changing each year. However by paying attention to

several things right from the get-go, one can often get a line on just what is

going on. This might help you avoid some probable losers and may also provide

clues to numerous winners at some very juicy mutuels.

One can divide the meeting into three segments. The first is the forerunner segment prior

to the running of the Sunshine Millions on January 26. During this segment one should not be surprised at any result. The prime-time

boutique meet segment comes next and ends with the running of the Florida Derby

(G1) on March 29, which is the heart of the meet. Finally, the pre-Calder segment

rolls around when most of the winter shippers have vacated, save a few

remaining horses for stakes or grass racing.

Listed below are a series of questions you might ask yourself when

approaching the Gulfstream races during the early part of the meeting. Once you

have a line on the proceedings, you will be able to make the necessary

adjustments as things begin to change.

1 -- Intent: Which stables and trainers are pointing to the Gulfstream winter

meeting in 2008?

With purses at Gulfstream lower than at some venues, it is important to ask

the question as to which outfits are serious about winning races and which are

using the meeting as a proving ground for the major spring meetings up north? A

subset of this general theme is which outfits are loaded for bear and are intent

on winning early in the meeting? Others may have planned an all-out assault

throughout the meeting, while others still may need time for their runners and will

be more effective as the meet progresses.

Stables coming off hot meetings immediately prior to shipping may need time

to regroup. Conversely, a stable coming off a sub-par previous meeting may have been

just pointing for Gulfstream. Some steeds will be at Gulfstream mainly for rest and

legging up with their major goals coming later in the year and elsewhere; others

are there to win races immediately. Early identification of just who is hot

and who is not, who is serious today and who is not, should return quick

dividends. When a hot stable starts to cool or a cold one starts to warm up, the

change in the winds can produce dramatic results if identified quickly.

Unexpectedly good performances by longshots or poor performances by bet-down

runners often provide the early clues to change. Sometimes additional clues are

given by the placement of the horses and/or the recent preparation.

Be alert to surprise performances in either direction and be prepared to

adapt quickly; these often come in short performance cycles and may last for

only a race or two over a day or two. If one or two horses from an outfit

perform differently than expected, this may signal a change in trend for the

short run or for the entire meeting. The winning player will be ready to react

quickly; comparison of horses' preparation and performances from the same stable

can point to forthcoming changes.

2 -- Where: Where (which tracks or circuits) are the winners coming from?

Over the years, horses and stables coming from one circuit or track have

fared somewhat better than others, particularly early in the meeting. More than

the occasional surprising winner can be found during the meeting by paying

attention to the source of previous winners, particularly if they did not last

race at a major venue. With horses shipping in from all over the North and

Midwest, it may pay a dividend or two to be aware of any shippers from lesser

venues which are having better-than-expected success.

3 -- Which Surface: What surface did they run on last?

As more and more venues switch to artificial surfaces, it might be worth

paying attention to whether or not the surface over which a horse last ran is

impacting the list of winners at Gulfstream. Del Mar, Arlington, Woodbine, Turfway and

Keeneland are all Polytrack surfaces; Presque Isles and Golden Gate are Tapeta;

Hollywood and Santa Anita are Cushion Track; then there are the varying dirt

tracks. Are any of these surface types more dominant that others in producing winners at

Gulfstream?

4 -- When: How recently did the winners race?

This factor ties in with the track and surface factor particularly early in

the meeting. In recent years, a recent race has lost some of its importance as a

prime handicapping factor. Rested horses (31 or more days) are winning at a

higher percentage than they did 20 or even 10 years ago. If layoff

winners are in the ascendancy early in the meeting, the venue and surface of the

last race could assume major importance. It may take two or more weeks for a

recent Gulfstream race to be a significant factor.

5 -- How Long: How long has the horse been south?

A significant factor to consider is temperature. Most horses do better

shipping from warm to cooler temperatures than they do shipping from cold to

warm. Their systems may take four-to-six weeks to adjust. One clue here is to

check the work line and see how far back the first work in Florida came. If the

particular horse in question does not show much of a work line, clues can come

from knowledge of some of the other horses in the same stable, in terms of when

they first worked or how the other horses from the barn have been running.

Sometimes a turnaround performance from one horse in the barn might indicate

that the others are adjusting and ready to start running better.

6 -- Where: Where are the winners currently training?

With many of the nation's top outfits and horses spending the winter in

Florida, there is an overflow of horses and the training is frequently split

amongst Gulfstream, Calder and numerous training centers with Palm Meadows, Palm

Beach Downs and Payson Park being other important local training venues. Many of

the larger outfits are split amongst two or more of these local training

centers. Most horses not stabled at the two tracks pay to stable at these

training centers, just another factor to take into consideration when deciding

upon "intent."

A key clue to possible success is to pay attention to where a trainer has his

horses stationed and if they are split up, does he or she have the better stock

at one particular venue, or are the horses being pointed for early winning

performances located at one or other of these venues. Bill Mott provides a

perfect example of this phenomenon. For many years he has kept his top runners

at Payson, occasionally shipping in for a work at Gulfstream or leaving the odd

poor shipper there; for the most part his better runners and the majority of his

winners have been located and trained over the deeper surface at Payson, north

of Gulfstream; so too with Chris Clement. Todd Pletcher's horses win from multiple

locations.

No one knows what the program is for 2008 until it unfolds, but keeping on

top of these types of details can produce winning bets and avoid losing ones!

7 -- Hot Outfit: Is the outfit hot here or elsewhere?

Always pay attention to a hot barn! It is a productive source of pricey

winners, especially early in the hot cycle before everybody else catches on.

Some hot cycles are short-lived and some are meet-long. Some are merely local

while others carry throughout the entire stable wherever they run horses. Often

the best clues to a changing trend are when an unlikely runner or two runs

better than his form suggests or when a logical horse or two, particularly a

favorite, underperforms expectations; when either occurs, anticipate a change in

trend.

Some stables go on a tear from time to time, some do it at one track only and some stables do it at whatever track they run a horse for a period of time.

Others send their ready runners to one particular venue and win at a high percentage, but perform at a subpar level at another. It

might enhance returns to be aware how the stable is performing elsewhere; if a

stable either gets hot or cools off at one venue, carefully watch the trend

locally for a change.

8 -- Races for Florida-based horses: Is there a Calder-at-Gulfstream meeting?

Do not lose sight of the fact that this is a Florida meeting and there are

local horses to be looked after. A little more than a third of the meet's races

will fit the local Calder horse population very well. Sure claiming shippers do

come for the spoils, but the local runners regularly manage to win their share

of the races. Is there any one clue to use as a guide? Well things change

constantly and from year to year, but the best guide to success may be the fit

horse that has not been racing throughout the year. The Tropical at Calder

meeting is probably the highest class of the local Florida meetings and a horse

with improving form and a start or two following a freshening may be the most

likely to succeed at Gulfstream if he/she is sharp and in the right spot of

course.

Perhaps the past history of the meeting will repeat itself for many of the

trainers, or perhaps there will be a few or many new trends established. We will

endeavor to stay on top of some of these various trends in the Gulfstream

Notebook every Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for only time will tell the story

as it unfolds. Approaching the meeting with an open mind, reading between the

lines, and staying right on top of current trends could prove the key to the vault especially if there is change in the air!