Handicapping Feature

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

FEBRUARY 22, 2007

Use BRIS Pace Ratings to find value – first in a series

by Tony Kelzenberg

If you are a BRIS customer, chances are you use (or have at least looked at)

the BRIS Ultimate PPs with Comments. This type of file combines an analysis of

the running style, Class ratings, BRIS Prime Power ratings and "Daily Racing

Form-style" history in one document.

To simplify the discussion of how to effectively use the Ultimate PPs, we are

going to focus on the parts of the file that probably get the least amount of

attention from horseplayers -- the running style of each horse (explained

shortly) and the BRIS Summary Page (with average Pace and Speed ratings and

Prime Power). We will use the running lines for horses only to clarify "tough

calls" on whether to select one horse or another.

In general, we will focus on SPEED horses (horses that have shown a tendency

to run near the front) that have demonstrated clearly that they have superior

(early) Pace figures to the second call of the race (in BRIS-speak, they have

highest E2 Pace figure), and/or have the recent form to take advantage of their

typical running style and any possible track bias. We will use BRIS Final Speed

figures and BRIS Prime Power to only discount the chances of horses that are

probably outclassed, regardless of pace figures.

Running Styles

"E" Horses -- An E horse needs the lead to perform at its best, and

will usually stop running if they get into a "speed duel" with another horse of comparable ability. They usually DO NOT pass more than

one horse during a race. Let's consider an E horse named SAVE (Silver Charm), along

with his average E1 (pace figure to the first call), E2 (pace figure to the

second call), LP (late pace) and Spd (BRIS Final Speed figure). These average

numbers would be located on the summary sheet that is supplied at the end of

each race.

		E1		E2		LP		Spd
SAVE (E 8)		94		106		80		*91*

E8 means Save really prefers the lead, and is almost always first

or second in the running of the race at the E1 call. His E2 number of 106 is

excellent, but his LP number of 80 shows he tends to get tired and would not be

a strong play at short odds. The asterisks around the 91 BRIS Speed number mean

more than one race was used to calculate his average numbers. If there are no

asterisks, only one race was selected for the average.

"E/P" Horses -- Horses that can run on the lead, or closely press the

pace with a strong E2 number, are highly reliable animals, especially in sprints

where stamina and distance limitations are not nearly as important factors.

These horses are identified in BRIS-speak as E/P (Early/Presser) horses. Two

things to know about E/Ps: they prefer to be ON the lead, usually with another

horse or two on their inside, and they HATE being down on the inside of other

horses, fighting for the lead. Expect a better effort out of an E/P horse if

they move from post 1 or 2 to the outside, even with a slight class hike. E/P

horses drawn outside with the top or co-top E2 pace figure will usually control

the race.

Here is the average line for an E/P horse:

		E1		E2		LP		Spd
INDIAN CHANT (E/P 5)		93		101		87		*93*

There are several things to note here. Indian Chant (Suggest), in the long run, will

win more races than Save. Indian Chant is a little faster and

finishes his races better than Save (see the LP number). But Save is quicker early (see the larger E2 pace rating). Under the right

conditions, Save CAN beat Indian Chant.

Pace Matchup -- In the race I cite here (January 20, 2007, Race 8,

Santa Anita), there were three other speed horses in the race, but their average

E2 numbers were all below 95, so they had no chance. Interestingly, one of these

speed horses was shipping in from a November effort at Churchill Downs and was made

the 8-5 morning line favorite, eventually going off at even money. Why? I have no idea. He didn't

run very well.

Who did run very well? Our two speed horses, of course. Unfortunately for

Indian Chant, he drew the rail and had to be sent early. He did clear, but Save rated outside of him from post 6. Three or four jumps from the wire,

Save put his head in front and stayed there, winning by a half-length over

Indian Chant. It was several lengths back to the others.

Value

The BRIS Pace ratings helped me discover value in this race because they

indicated that the even-money favorite had little chance to win. They also

indicated that there were two horses that had very good chances to win -- Indian

Chant and Save, even though neither was top in average Final Speed (Indian Chant was second,

Save was fourth). The use of pace ratings and running style

led me to the final selection. Save paid

$21.60, and Indian Chant completed the $44.70 exacta ($1).