Handicapping Feature

The trainer has never won with a first-time starter going

long on the turf.

Of the 20 first-time starters who won, 14 of them were

two-year-olds, 18 of them won sprints.

17 of the 20 first-time route winners had at least

two previous races, usually sprints, and three had only one prior start.

All of the first-time turf winners had three or more

starts, and at least half of them had raced at today's distance or

longer.

Will this horse win today? He might.

One thing is for sure,

the trainer's published statistics will lead to the horse being over bet

considering his true chances of winning. The likelihood, however, is that

unless this is an exceptional runner, the trainer is prepping this horse for a

later start – something not necessarily in evidence from the statistics – if read

without a critical eye.

Example Two

Three-year-old male debuts in maiden special weight at six furlongs

on the dirt, early in the year at an "A" track.

Trainer stats:

Additional Form Information: This horse shows a

series of better than average works, fairly regularly spaced with no gaps.

Pedigree information shows that the sire is a top debut sire (above 18 percent) and the

stakes-winning dam has produced several debut winners.

Comments: The trainer debut win percent, in

conjunction with a strong work pattern, which includes several above average

works, suggest that this horse – from a top stable and with a top rider up - is

likely to go off at a short price. While the information base tracked only

winners, and not those starters that lost, there was a hidden key element

missing from the past performance profile. The ROI (Return on Investment) was

modestly negative on this trainer in this debut category, but there was one

element that if added to the mix, would turn it strongly into the black. Without

its presence, one might be deterred from betting on this horse at low odds. Eight of the

10 maiden special weight winners at six furlongs or longer, and one of the two

maiden claiming winners, had shown a six-furlong gate work in the 21 days before

the winning debut.

This colt has never worked six furlongs.

He still could win. But if you had the additional information

about the six furlong gate work would you be betting on this horse at 2-1 or

less? At 15-1 maybe you would take a chance.

Example Three

Proven five-year-gelding makes his first start for a new trainer

after shipping to a new circuit, going a two-turn mile in a high-dollar claimer.

Trainer stats:

Additional Form Information: Horse has won several

races at today's track, at today's distance and off similar layoffs. He has also

won following a claim and track switch in the past. This information was

available from either the current past performances or those found on old forms

saved in hard copy, or on a hard drive, or from past clippings of other wins.

Comments: The trainer stats here provide somewhat

conflicting information. The trainer is obviously competent as several of the

win percents show.

The question is how to handle the somewhat conflicting

negative statistic for the long layoff, which is below his normal performance

level – either a weakness or perhaps trainer intent.

Very often the listed

statistics will conflict; very often there is additional information which will

provide important clues, but is not there to look at. It is clear that the

trainer can get a horse ready to run off a long layoff if he so chooses and

if the horse will do so as the half-dozen or so past winners

demonstrate. Knowing how the trainer generally prepares his horses will

frequently provide some clues. Many trainers use certain work distances or

patterns to prepare post-vacation runners for an immediate top effort. Maybe

the key relates to the choice of rider (this might show up in the BRIS Ultimate

Past Performances), the class maneuver or quite possibly the horse himself.

This horse has already indicated an ability to win off a long layoff in the

past. If the work tab and class placement suggest that the trainer is interested

today, then he is a lot more interesting than if there is one three-furlong

breeze in :39, 17 days ago.

Tentative Conclusions

Just as with most elements of

horse race betting, little is simple and straightforward. Keeping additional

trainer data, might give one special insights into simple statistics. Some

things work better together than they do alone.

The basic premise was that: if a "good" trainer did

something more than once, and with more than one horse, that was in his bag of

tricks and he was eligible to use it at anytime in the future.

Good trainers know that each runner is different, but also that they tend to

fall into general types: slow down naturally quick horses in the morning, ask

slower horses to work faster; some gallop fast and get their wind in shape and

need little work; others have unsound underpinnings and may be unable to stand

up to strenuous morning exercise, and so on. If he had past success with

blinkers or a tongue tie, or a figure eight, or a certain jockey because he does

something different during the race or has soft hands, then he tends to go back

to them when he thinks the scenario might fit.

Never underestimate the potential of a pattern

match between horse and trainer. If a horse moves to a new trainer who has

success with layoff returnees, in addition to moving from a trainer who did not either

try or have the ability to do so and the horse has run well fresh in the past -- look out!

One thought on using information about winners only, which

means one does not know the percentages: While it certainly is more useful to

know how often each maneuver is tried, how often it succeeded, as well as the

odds and dollar return, simpler forms of information can provide subsets that

keep a player off low-odds losers, justify low-odds plays on others, and produce

very generous payouts on still others.

The ideal situation would be interactive trainer stats,

which would allow the handicapper to track multiple qualifying factors at the

same time -- first-time starter, first time on turf, first time going long --

and understanding all the specifics of each particular situation. Until that

format becomes available, any extra tidbits of information can and do go a long

way to keeping you in the black.