Handicapping Feature

HANDICAPPING FEATURE

SEPTEMBER 12, 2007

The Summer of '07: Is the Past a Prologue?

by Steve Zacks

With Saratoga and Del Mar now history, we take a look back with a view to the

future. Compliments are paid; questions are asked.

A horseplayer's evaluation of the new Del Mar Polytrack will take weeks. If

horses who worked well but didn't run well in the afternoon perform well at

other venues, players who liken the move from the Del Mar Poly-to-dirt or Del

Mar Poly-to-Cushion Track as a turf-to-dirt move might find great opportunities.

Several Del Mar-trained have run already run lights-out performances at

Saratoga, and some horses who excelled at Hollywood Park didn't carry their form

forward at Del Mar.

We had some success at Del Mar favoring sustained type runners -- those with

final BRIS Speed and Late Pace numbers higher than their Early Pace ratings.

This may not be so much a positional play as an energy play. A patient ride,

either in front or from behind, seemed to be the winning way. Pay attention to a

horse with good form prior to Del Mar; be prepared to toss out the

less-than-stellar performances there until trends clarify. Playing more than one

horse in uncertain situations often leads to rewards, and regular trips to the

cashier's window will keep you in a positive mindset. For those who focus on

trainers, always be wary of trainers coming off particularly strong or weak

meetings, especially if you had anticipated better (or worse); form reversals

are common under these circumstances.

Saratoga had one of its best meetings in recent years. The weather was great.

The absence of major summer storm bursts led to plenty of turf racing with full

fields. One real positive was the adjustments made at the starting gate; the

fact that, other than an unfortunate event on closing day, the improvement was

noticeable is significant. At the very least, horseplayers were given a fair

shake and when racing does anything positive for the horseplayers, it deserves

to be patted on the back.

Small field sizes in major stakes continues to trouble racing. It is not very

often that a deep closer has a chance to win a four-horse race, but it happened

in the Hopeful S. (G1) when MAJESTIC WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) was able to roll on by

the better-backed speedsters in the stretch. In a four-horse field, 6-1 is a

great price and leading trainer Bill Mott was not likely to be running a

two-year-old maiden winner in a Grade 1 event unless he was very serious! Clever

handicappers got a great overlay there.

In the Spinaway S. (G1), MORE HAPPY (Vindication), the beneficiary of a gate

mishap in her Adirondack (G2) victory, was unable to sustain her speed at the

longer distance and did not finish on the board. To her credit, she was

returning on rather short rest off a hard effort. The hot horse was second-time

starter IRISH SMOKE (Smoke Glacken), and she was the first two-year-old this

season to win a Grade 1 in his/her second career start. So much for the old days

when stakes and racing experience was a necessity to win the big juvenile events

of the summer.

Those who stay on top of hot trainers and jockeys were rewarded with a

resurgent Mott winning all kinds of races, including almost a dozen two-year-old

events. Could he be a force in the sophomore classics of 2008? Give him a horse

with talent and some time, and he will find a way to bring that talent to the

fore! Gary Contessa lit up the tote board several times during the closing days.

These included a winner absent for more than a year and a developing sophomore.

Those who pay attention to the work tab, found adequate clues with the different

styles of preparation for each. Linda Rice had ample opportunity to take

advantage of her known strength, winning a slew of turf events in the closing

days.

It became apparent early in the meeting that Todd Pletcher's horses were not

winning the stretch battles the way so often do. That provided one clue for the

skeptics. After the slow start, those who chose to play against the usual meet

leader were able to take advantage by playing against many short-priced horses.

Many of these were merely players in contentious races. When the barn was hot

they would beat you time and again; this year they proved to be beatable. Very

often when a good stable has a slow meet, they are dynamite in the following

one. Along with Pletcher, Steve Asmussen is another that bears watching early in

the upcoming Belmont Fall Championship meet, and at Keeneland later on. Watch

the early trend carefully and have a strategy in place to take advantage -- be

they hot or be they not!

Carl Nafzger had a brilliant plan and equally successful execution with his

top sophomores STREET SENSE (Street Cry) and LADY JOANNE (Orientate). Students

of form and preparation would do well to study this master of bringing a horse

up to a big race. In our book, his performance was akin to Dick Mandella's four

victories in the Breeders' Cup of 2003.

What the future holds for a couple of the meet's top name horses will unfold

over the next months. LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) was dominant in winning both the

Whitney (G1) and Woodward (G1). He's always been a top performer, but a skeptic

might ask if he is one of those Saratoga horse-for-course freaks. Will he run as

well at Monmouth at 10 furlongs in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)? His

performance in the Woodward was markedly inferior to that in the Whitney off a

similar set up. Did the extra eight pounds make that much of a difference? Not

that he would get paid any more for winning by more lengths than he did, but he

did not gallop out nearly as well last time either. A contrarian position might

prove rewarding in an upcoming race.

The skeptics had much to say about the performances of Street Sense; he won

both his prep race (Jim Dandy [G2]) and his main target (Travers [G1]), though

not necessarily in the convincing fashion that many expected.

Some race horses, with experience, become very professional and understand

fully just what they have to do. Perhaps he is one of those.

Race horses are athletes. Most athletes have problems. There is no doubt that

Street Sense is an athlete. He may now have his physical limitations. Perhaps

CURLIN (Smart Strike) did not win the Preakness (G1) so much as Street Sense

lost it because these limitations came to the fore after making that long

extended run to the front. It is also possible that Street Sense did not really

care for the Saratoga surface (just as Lawyer Ron might have relished it), but

was a good enough to win in spite of it. Perhaps the stress of racing has caught

up with him somewhat and he is not quite the horse he was earlier. These days,

so it seems, the modern race horse only has a few good efforts in it.

And of course we do not yet know just how good a racehorse the

later-developing GRASSHOPPER (Dixie Union) will turn out to be. If the new trend

is for maiden winners to win the meeting's marquee two-year-old events, then why

shouldn't an upstart three-year-old give the division leader a run for his

money? He could be one to watch.

On the subject of safety and racing, and the artificial versus the dirt

surface debate, a quick review of the charts for Arlington Park, Del Mar,

Saratoga and Monmouth Park over the same period suggests that there were as many

or more DNFs (did not finish), pull-ups and vanned offs, on Poly as on dirt. The

quality or thoroughness of the pre-race soundness/veterinary examinations may

have something to do with what happens on the race track in the afternoons. The

important factor needs to be a part of this discussion. To date, we have not

seen this point publicly referenced.

Having been hands-on with race horses for over two decades and having watched

racing for more than four, we believe that in all but the rarest of cases, a

properly trained horse will respond to sparing use of the whip. Once they have

been taught what is expected of them, many need only to be shown the stick, or

tapped lightly once or occasionally to keep their mind on the task at hand. We

have lobbied in the past for tighter controls in use, misuse and abuse of the

whip.

We have watched Russell Baze ride in several thousand races over the years

and rarely if ever do we recall him misusing or overusing the whip. Baze, and

other top riders like him, win a lot of races because they are on good horses,

understand what saving ground is about, are aware of pace and have a tactical

understanding of a race. There is no doubt in our mind that Baze rates with the

best of this group. To his credit, he is also a fierce competitor and does

everything he can to win. He has also been seen not to persevere unnecessarily

with other challenged or well-beaten runners. Those are some of the many

ingredients which go into the making of the winningest rider in North American

racing history.

We watched the race in question when Baze's horse broke down in deep stretch.

We saw the horse go bad and then seem to collect himself. In the shadow of the

wire and wanting to win a race, Baze hit the horse a couple of times. The

unfortunate outcome is a sad fact of horse racing. We are not sure that Baze

deserved the suspension, but that is not our place. He has abided by the ruling

as a true professional and gentleman. However, what is sad and what deserves

comment is that he is penalized for a possible small lapse in judgment during

the heat of competition while countless offenses of misuse, overuse and abuse of

the whip go on across North America on a regular basis.

Our hats go off daily to the riders who draw the sword only when necessary

and hand ride their horses or who use the whip most judiciously -- Edgar Prado,

Richard "the Mig" Migliore and Johnny Velazquez are a few of many. We applaud

every time we see it. It is too bad that the common everyday abuses go

unpunished and too many riders continue to do it repeatedly. More of the public

needs to complain to the stewards and racetracks when they see a horse five or

six lengths in front of the field being hit in the belly on every stride with

the rider not evening looking back to see if there is any competition!