Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

OCTOBER 25, 2013

by Dick Powell

The Breeders' Cup is getting closer and before diving into the past

performances that are now available, it is worth taking some time to look at the

big picture before diving into the nitty gritty.

Santa Anita, this time of year, is known for hot, dry weather and

championship weekend should be no exception. Fast and Firm conditions can be

expected. Usually, this might give the West Coast turf horses an advantage but

this year, the turf courses at Saratoga and Belmont have been every bit as firm

as their West Coast counterparts.

Kentucky has had a wet autumn and many of its turf stakes races were run on

less than firm conditions or washed off completely.

Many horses will show up with their last race being run over a synthetic

track. Unless it's a one-run closer going two turns, synthetic track horses seem

to run extremely well when put back on dirt. To me, it's a non-factor.

Lasix will not be available for any of the two-year-old races. It did not

seem to have much affect on last year's juvenile races but it seems to give an

advantage to the European juveniles. I say "seem" since the European turf horses

are superior to ours so it's hard to tell how much the Lasix issue affects these

races.

Outside posts do extremely well in turf sprints down the hill. Do not get

suckered in by horses that you think will benefit from saving ground from the

inside. West Coast horses and jockeys have a decided advantage. Horses rallying

from off the pace have an advantage over need-to-lead types.

Alterite (Literato) will attract some support in the Filly and Mare Turf but

consider this: When she shipped to America at the end of the summer, her goals

were the Garden City (G1) and QE II Challenge Cup (G1). She won the Garden City

and then just missed in the QE II. That was her original plan and it was

executed extremely well. The Filly and Mare Turf is an afterthought. Not that

she can't win but those were the races she was pointed for -- Grade 1 stakes

races on firmer turf courses against other three-year-olds.

There is a big European contingent shipping in despite the heat and long

travel. On average, their turf horses are lengths better than ours so their

second-string types fit very well in here.

One first-string European that is entered in the Mile is Olympic Glory

(Choisir), who was a sensational winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) at

Ascot last Saturday. He relished the soft going, with blinkers added for the

first time, and exploded in the stretch to win by three widening lengths. He won

a Group 1 stakes race at the end of last year in France on heavy ground and it

will be interesting to see how he handles firm ground.

As good as he is, Olympic Glory is a question mark on firm turf and is he

coming because his trainer, Richard Hannon, wants to or is it because his owner,

Sheikh Joann Bin Hamad al Thani of Qatar, wants to? Al Thani is making quite a

name for himself in the racing world having won the Arc de Triomphe (G1) earlier

this month at Longchamp with Treve (Motivator).

Richard Hannon is one of Europe's best conditioners. When you look at the

acquisition costs of the horses that he has won major races with, it shows that

nobody over there does a better job with what he has. Hannon's son-in-law,

Richard Hughes, will be the rider again. But in the past, Hannon was always

reluctant to send his top milers over here. Why now?

Princess of Sylmar's (Majestic Warrior) connections are now going to put up

the supplemental nomination and go for the Distaff. The Distaff only has six

horse pre-entered and that would seem to give Beholder (Henny Hughes) a huge

advantage.

Winner of five of six starts over the Santa Anita main track, including four

Grade 1s, Beholder should have things her own way on the front end for Gary

Stevens, who has gotten her to relax beautifully before and during the race.

Royal Delta (Empire Maker), winner of this race the past two years, was beaten

in her last start by Princess of Sylmar and it was shocking that she offered no

resistance when challenged in the stretch. I still will not be surprised if

Lasix is added when Bill Mott enters her next Monday.

Princess of Sylmar has been taking them one race at a time and as she kept

winning Grade 1 stakes, the Breeders' Cup came into focus. For a filly that

spent the winter racing on Aqueduct's inner dirt track, it's been a spectacular

season. Her problem is that as good as she has been lately, she'll have to be

even better to handle Beholder on her home track and Bill Mott's other entrant,

Close Hatches (First Defence), who beat her earlier this year.

Royal Delta has thrown in the occasional clunker in the past but her last

race was shocking. Turning for home, it looked like Mike Smith had ton of horse

beneath him on a track that favored speed but when he went to the well, it was

dry. She worked well last weekend and will need another strong work for me to

think that her last race was the outlier and the real Royal Delta will show up

for the last race on Friday.