Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 10, 2014

by Dick Powell

I use the BRIS Stable Alert system as an electronic reminder to a memory that

ain't what it used to be. And, it's been pretty busy lately.

After writing about WinStar Farms' Revolutionary (War Pass) last week, he

shows up on Saturday at Gulfstream Park going a mile on the main track in an

allowance/optional $100K claimer. And, he will have his hands full in what is

clearly a prep race for bigger and better things to come.

Drawing into Saturday's second race is Honorable Dillon (Tapit), winner of

Hutcheson Stakes (G2) over the track last year going seven furlongs. He was

freshened up by Eddie Kenneally after having trouble handling the Belmont Park

main track in the Woody Stephens (G2) and did not return until six months later

on the Aqueduct main track where he was a good second going seven furlongs.

He'll have a big advantage over Revolutionary going one turn and with a race

under his belt.

Also in the field is Reveron (Songandaprayer), winner of the Gulfstream Park

Derby two years ago and then a terrific second in the Florida Derby (G1) when he

finished ahead of subsequent Belmont Stakes (G1) Union Rags. He returned off a

20-month layoff here in November and has two starts coming in here. On his best

day, he'll be very dangerous.

To make things tougher on Revolutionary will be the fact that he draws post 1

going a one-turn mile. It won't be easy but it will be fascinating to watch as a

very good three-year-old from last year begins his four-year-old campaign.

In race four, Stable Alert tells me that Centennial Farms' Juba (Tapit) will

race in a maiden special weight event for three-year-olds going seven furlongs.

For this horse, I don't need Stable Alert since my friend Paul Cassidy, a member

of the syndicate that owns not only Juba but Wicked Strong (Hard Spun), third in

the Remsen (G2), keeps me up to date on all things Juba through emails from his

home in Texas.

Juba, like Wicked Strong, began his career in a super strong maiden special

weight race. It doesn't' say it in the chart comment, but he had a very eventful

trip racing in traffic and having to tap on the brakes going into the turn. He

was beaten three lengths and with a race under his belt at Saturday's distance

and adding Lasix for the first time, it should add up to an improved

performance.

Unfortunately, Juba drew another strong field. January maidens at Gulfstream

Park for three-year-olds are typically very tough as trainers have pointed their

horses to an early start to get on the Triple Crown trail. The fourth race is no

exception with a field of 12 from the top owners and trainers in the sport being

represented.

Todd Pletcher has two first time starters in the race, both sired by Tapit.

Hartford draws the rail with Luis Saez. He's been training extremely well at

Palm Meadows and it looks like he even worked in company with Pletcher's other

entry -- Constitution -- two weeks ago.

Wayne Catalano has a second-time starter, Alpha Roadster (Bellamy Road), that

was a good second at Churchill Downs in his lone start seven weeks ago going six

furlongs.

Pat Byrne sends out Indy's Legacy (A.P. Indy), a first-time starter that

draws well with Corey Lanerie in the irons. He is a half-brother to two stakes

winners including Cool Coal Man, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) here.

This is the female family of Storm Bid, who was undefeated in five starts as a

two-year-old.

As long as someone doesn't gun to the front and bottom out the field, I think

Juba has a big shot. The truncated comment in the chart does not alert anyone to

a poor trip last out so the odds should be okay. Juba was entered in a similar

race two weeks ago but had to be withdrawn when he briefly got loose in a

workout and had some superficial abrasions. His five-furlong breeze at Palm

Meadows last Saturday indicates that all is well.

Finally, a horse that I had forgotten about, but Stable Alert reminded me of,

is Elnaawi (Street Sense) in race seven, a two-turn allowance/optional claiming

event on the main track. The four-year-old broke his maiden 364 days ago going a

mile on a muddy inner dirt track at Aqueduct when he went gate to wire.

Kiaran McLaughlin added Lasix for the Gotham Stakes (G3) next time out and I

thought he ran extremely well after being bumped around at the start to finish

third. The colt came back in the Wood Memorial (G1) last time out, was bumped

again at the start and sat off a dawdling (-15, -13) pace while racing evenly.

He returns off a 280-day layoff Saturday off a series of five-furlong breezes

for McLaughlin and picks up Joel Rosario from an inside post. He's a

half-brother to To Honor and Serve and I liked how he showed energy in the

stretch last year. An interesting horse to watch this year.