Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

NOVEMBER 28, 2008

by Dick Powell

Just like on Thanksgiving when it pays to pace yourself, this weekend's

delicious menu of racing will require a wagering regulator when it comes to our

appetite. It's that good and knowing that there will be slim pickings the next

five weeks, the temptation is to overdo it this weekend and pay for it later.

If you like turf, Hollywood Park has the Turf Festival. If you like older

dirt horses, Aqueduct has the Cigar Mile (G1) and Churchill has the Clark H.

(G2). If you are looking forward to next year's classics, Aqueduct has the

Remsen S. (G2) for juvenile males and the Demoiselle S. (G2) for juvenile

fillies while Churchill has the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) for the boys and

the Golden Rod S. (G2) for the girls.

And, if you are like me and love to bet babies, it's heaven on earth this

Saturday with the juvenile stakes at Aqueduct and an entire card devoted to

juveniles at Churchill as they finish their season. Thus, in order to make it to

Saturday with a healthy bankroll and attitude, I need to pace myself on Thursday

and Friday even though the Fall Highweight H. is one of my favorite races at

Aqueduct and those turf races at Hollywood Park look real tempting.

Churchill has every imaginable baby race that you could ever want. Graded

stakes going two turns, maidens going short, maidens going long, allowance races

and turf stakes going long comprise the Churchill card that is my cup of tea. So

assuming that I do not overdose on tryptothan on Thursday and can stay awake and

study on Friday, I should be peaking on Saturday.

The 12-race Churchill Saturday card begins with a main track first-level

allowance race going a mile for juvenile fillies. Ken McPeek sends out PASSION

DU COEUR (Distorted Humor), who broke her maiden second time out at Churchill

going seven furlongs in good time from post 10 while earning a BRIS Speed rating

of 93. She draws outside and should be able to stalk the pace while clear down

the backside. She looks like the one to beat and I'll use her with A. P.

ELEGANCE (A.P. Indy), a second-out winner from Steve Asmussen that is certainly

bred to go longer, and EMMA DARLING (Hennessy), a turf-to-dirt filly from the

red-hot Mike Maker.

The second half of the early double on Saturday at Churchill has a dozen

juvenile fillies trying to break their maidens going two turns on the main

track. McPeek sends out an uncoupled entry of THE BEST DAY EVER (Brahms), fourth

in her first two well-bet starts going two turns on synthetic and turf, and

SATIN THUNDER (Thunder Gulch) who missed by a length as the beaten favorite last

out here at this distance. Satin Thunder will be the horse to beat despite

drawing post 11 and I;ll use her Passion du Coeur in early doubles with her and

The Best Day Ever. Hard to gauge the others who have run since very few of them

took any money in their debuts. ONE HOT TODDY (Congaree) ran an even fourth to

A. P. Elegance in her second start and could stretch out.

Race three is a first-level allowance race for males going 6 1/2 furlongs

that drew nine. I'M IT WAYNE (Lightnin N Thunder) was a monster maiden winner

first time out for Wayne Catalano at Hawthorne and has trained well since then.

He has the perfect picket fence past performance line from that gate-to-wire win

from post one and will get tested here by a field that is loaded with early

speed types. McPeek, who has runners in ten of the dozen races, sends out

MYROSLAW (Alke) who broke his maiden two starts back at Keeneland going seven

furlongs then ran well here against this class level last time out. TURFISTE

(Military) is a speedball from Bob Holthus that was used hard last out going

seven but has trained well for this. SPECIAL HEART (Lion Heart) looks to be the

only one that can pass horses and will get our nod.

Next is a seven-furlong maiden race for males on the main track Eight of the

dozen starters are making their career debuts and considering that the ones that

have run have not distinguished themselves we'll look for a first time starter.

Steve Asmussen sends out JUSTIN (Speightstown) that cost $700,000 as a yearling

and is training well. We'll bet him to win and let the chips fall where they

may.

Race five is the Grand Canyon H. for juvenile males going 1 1/16 miles on the

turf. SMART SHOT (Smart Strike) rallied from far back to break his maiden first

time out on the turf for Michael Trombetta at Laurel. He draws well and should

be able to run these down. PRESENTS FOR BERTI (Congaree) broke his maiden here

last out going a mile on this course and should be tough again for Helen Pitts.

We're back on the main track going 6 1/2 furlongs for juvenile fillies in

race six which attracted a field of 11. GLACKEN QUEEN (Smoke Glacken) has to

overcome post 1, but her three prior races have all been good and she won here

last out going six in fast time. The fact that she breaks so well should help

Albarado avoid a traffic jam out of the gate. PRETTY PROLIFIC (Lion Heart) has

run well against graded stakes company going longer and SELECTIVE (Tapit) made a

strong middle move here last out going a mile. I'll key Glacken Queen in an

exacta box over Pretty Prolific and Selective.

Race seven in a seven-furlong maiden race for females on the main track.

AFTER THOUGHT (Fusaichi Pegasus) is out of a dam that won the Churchill Downs

Distaff H. (G2) here going seven furlongs on the main track and is a full sister

to Grade 3 stakes winner RAVEL (Fusaichi Pegasus). She comes in here off a

series of easy breezes for Rusty Arnold and looks ready to go. HEART ASHLEY

(Lion Heart) was a good second in her career debut from post nine for

Zayat/Asmussen. We'll box these two in the exacta.

Race eight is a one-mile first-level allowance event for males on the main

track. PHOSPHORESCENT (Rock Slide) broke his maiden first time out here in July

going six furlongs then was a distant fourth on a sloppy track at Saratoga in a

Grade 2 stakes. After a respite, he was a good second here going seven furlongs

in fast time and should handle these if he can run back to that effort.

The Golden Rod S. (G2) is race nine; a 1 1/16 mile main track event for

juvenile fillies. SARA LOUISE (Malibu Moon) was well intended for her career

debut at Saratoga but she got off to a poor start and had to rally from far back

to get fourth. She broke her maiden next time out at Belmont then came back here

with a sharp win in the Pocahontas S. (G3) which she dominated in fast time and

earned a terrific 101 BRIS Speed rating. Today will be her two-turn debut but

nothing from her prior three starts would indicate that she can't do it. DREAM

EMPRESS (Bernstein) won the Alcibiades S. (G1) two starts back on synthetic at

Keeneland then was a good second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) next

out. After beginning her career on turf, she makes her dirt debut here for

McPeek. WAR ECHO (Tapit) held on gamely in the Frizette S. (G1) when she pressed

a fast pace going a mile and could be dangerous here if she gets loose on an

easy lead. With only seven runners in the Golden Rod, I'll play straight exactas

with Sara Louise over Dream Empress and War Echo.

Race 10 has juvenile fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the turf in the Caressing

H. STRIKING DANCER (Smart Strike) exploded to a 5 3/4-length win in her two-turn

turf debut last out here and should be tough again for Ken McPeek. I'm going to

single her in doubles into the next race.

The Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) is race 11 for juvenile males going 1 1/16

miles on the main track. CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride [Arg]) has won both of

his dirt starts including a sharp win here in the Iroquois S. (G3). He can run

near the pace or rally from behind so Julien Leparoux has many options in riding

him from post 8. I'll play a daily double from race ten with Striking Dancer and

Capt. Candyman Can and then key Capt. Candyman Can over GIANT OAK (Giant's

Causeway) and JAZZANDTHEMAGICIAN (Birdstone) in exactas.

Finally, race 12 sends us on our way with a 1 1/8 maiden race on the main

track for juvenile males. LOHAD (Menifee) rallied from far back from post 12

going two turns on the turf to miss by two lengths and gets in light with

apprentice rider Brandon Meier. TRIBAL BEAD (Indian Charlie) was a good third

here going two turns and is another that should handle the distance for Bill

Mott who also sends out BARYSHNIKOV (Empire Maker) who was a good second in his

career debut going two turns on the turf. I'm going to stand alone with Lohad in

the finale with a strong win bet. McPeek wins with 13 percent of his first time

starters but an amazing 26 percent second time out. He's strong with turf to

dirt and second time going long so I expect Lohad to run at least as well as he

did first time out and beats these easily if he shows any improvement.