Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 9, 2014

by Dick Powell

There are a lot of ways of losing a race but breaking well

should not be one of them. But that is the only way that I can explain Intense

Holiday's (Harlan's Holiday) bizarre trip in last Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

In my handicapping of the race, I liked Intense Holiday's

ability to pass horses suddenly and race in traffic, all things he would need to

do in a full field on a mile track going 10 furlongs. I liked California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) but placed him second because of his propensity to get skittish

in the starting gate and miss the break.

With 19 horses going to post, breaking poorly would be a

deal breaker and, after doing it in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), I didn't want to

pick a horse that would be subject to the verse, "They're off; you lose!"

Instead, Intense Holiday was not going to be anywhere the

lead with his running style. Drawing post 16 made it seem that the speed on the

inside would go and he would be able to drop over and save some ground. Was he

going to get over to the rail? Probably not, but the wide draw did not seem to

be a problem since the inside speed horses would have to go to keep from getting

squeezed by the outside speed.

So here was the start and California Chrome broke

beautifully under Victor Espinoza. And Intense Holiday broke alertly under

Johnny Velazquez. Espinoza was able to take back and settle into perfect

position behind Uncle Sigh (Indian Charlie) and Chitu Henny Hughes) while

Velazquez got himself into no man's land -- five wide going into the first turn

with no place to drop in.

You see it every night in harness racing and here was my

top choice hung out to dry going around the first turn. Had the pace been

faster, the field would have stretched out and Intense Holiday could have

dropped over. But after a first half run in :47.37, my Kentucky Derby was over.

It got even worse down the backside as Velazquez tried to move up while racing

in the middle of the track. He was hanging on for dear life in fourth-place

turning for home but the ground loss caught up to him and he tired in the

stretch.

California Chrome, off only two half-mile workouts since

the Santa Anita Derby, made his move turning for home and opened up an

insurmountable lead. With my top pick done, it was fun rooting for the Cal-bred

fairy tale and he delivered the goods.

Even though my third choice, Danza (Street Boss), finished

third and my fourth choice, Wicked Strong (Hard Spun), finished fourth, what I

didn't have -- and he was the key to making a score on Saturday -- was Commanding

Curve (Master Command), who rallied for second from the back of the pack at odds

of 37-1.

Intense Holiday beat Commanding Curve both times he faced

him at Fair Grounds and I could see no reason that he couldn't again. Even

when he would not change leads in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Intense Holiday was

able to hold off Commanding Curve for second by 1 1/2 lengths, and I could

not see any reason that the result would be any different at Churchill.

Yes, trainer Dallas Stewart finished second in last year's

Derby with Golden Soul (Perfect Soul) at long odds coming off a similar pattern.

And Fair Grounds main track horses tend to carry their form forward since the

racing surface is so forgiving. But, I still didn't think he would run the way

he did.

One person that did like Commanding Curve, and it was no

help to me since I didn't read about it until Saturday morning, was Bruno De

Julio who picked him on top in his "Bruno With the Works" report available for

sale on

brisnet.com.

Not only did he pick Commanding Curve to win but his

workout analysis of April 18 at Churchill Downs was unlike anyone else I read.

While most clocker analysts focus on the last workout, Bruno said that

Commanding Curve's final work was just a maintenance work and that the real

foundation was set on April 18.

Here is what de Julio wrote about Commanding Curve's

penultimate Derby workout which he rated as five stars:

"To say this work was outstanding is an understatement. This was his KEY work

for the Kentucky Derby, not the last powder puff move in front of the droves.

COMMANDING CURVE worked with GOLDEN SOUL, last year's third place finisher (sic)

in the Derby right here at Churchill Downs. They went together in :12.2, :24.4,

:37 flat and then they sprinted home. 'Curve was much the best and with a ton

left in :59.4. Finished last quarter in :22.4 and beat 'Soul by one and a half

and could have been more. Went out in 1:13 flat which was a great gallop out

time on this surface that morning, and out in 1:28.2. Strong late and sharp.

This is the best I have seen from this one. LIVE."

So, if you paid the money for Bruno's analysis, he put you

on the key horse at a price last Saturday, which you needed to have when the

favorite won and logical horses filled in the other spots.

Untapable (Tapit) looked unbeatable in the Kentucky Oaks

(G1) and she lived up to her billing despite some trepidation from the bettors.

Amazingly, she was sent off at even-money despite two giant wins coming into the

Oaks and a BRIS Speed rating that would have put her in the running the next day

in the Derby.

She drew the far outside with Rosie Napravnik, looked very hot going to the

gate, raced wide and despite Napravnik's efforts not to take the

lead too early, opened up at the top of the stretch to win by 4 1/2 lengths in the

very fast time of 1:48.68. My Miss Sophia (Unbridled's Song) was a clear

second and it was six lengths back to Unbridled Forever (Unbridled's Song).

Untapable earned a BRIS Speed rating of 108, which was five

points higher than what California Chrome earned the next day in his Derby win.

Right now, it does not look like she'll take on the boys in the Preakness, like

trainer Steve Asmussen did with Rachel Alexandra after she was

purchased following a similar romp in the Oaks. But there is no doubt that she will

be able to handle it when she does.