Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 23, 2014

by Dick Powell

Two down; one to go.

This year's Triple Crown quest might be more memorable than normal. We might

actually have a Triple Crown winner -- the first since Affirmed did it in 1978.

As hard as that has been, we might even have some changes to the Triple Crown

schedule, which has been even harder to accomplish.

As the training of Thoroughbreds evolved to the present state where horses

need months between races instead of weeks, the two weeks between the Kentucky

Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) is not enough for those trainers that want to race

once a month.

What it has led to, and there is no end in sight, is many Derby starters

passing the Preakness altogether and waiting the Belmont Stakes (G1) five weeks

later. A classic race and a big purse is not enough to convince trainers like

Todd Pletcher to ship to Pimlico and run for Black Eyed Susans.

Thus, the Preakness is basically guaranteed the Derby winner and very little

else. A close Derby runner-up like Bodemeister might show up but most will not.

They want the extra time.

That said, we have to look at a horse going for the Triple Crown with a bit

of a jaundiced eye since they, in some ways, only had to win one race. The

positive is that we have a horse going for history. The negative is the

competition is well-rested and ready for the Belmont.

This year, Pimlico raised the purse of the Preakness to $1.5 million. Even

with the extra $500,000 in purse money, this year's Preakness was the Derby

winner against the Derby seventh-place finisher and the Derby 11th-place

finisher.

The new shooters included the winners of the Tampa Bay Derby, Illinois Derby

and the Federico Tesio Stakes. A few other stakes-placed horses and a filly that

had no business being there completed the field. Not a legendary running of the

Preakness by any means.

Against the likes of a California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit), this group didn't

stand a chance. He was just too good for this group.

Whatever chance this group had at beating California Chrome was over as soon

as the gate was sprung. Victor Espinoza broke him on top and moved to his right

to maintain his lane going into the clubhouse turn. Expected challenges from

Social Inclusion (Pioneerof the Nile) and Bayern (Offlee Wild) never

materialized so he was able to sit behind Pablo Del Monte (Giant's Causeway) and

the filly Ria Antonia (Rockport Harbor) and get a perfect stalking trip.

The only cause for concern Espinoza had aboard California Chrome was on the

far turn. Social Inclusion made a four-wide move and forced Espinoza's hand to

move earlier than he wanted. He quickly blew by the two leaders and held Social

Inclusion at bay.

Through the lane, Social Inclusion dropped back and Ride On Curlin (Curlin)

made a late move that turned out to be not as menacing as it looked. The final

margin shrank to 1 1/2 lengths, but California Chrome was never in danger.

As good as California Chrome looked, his dominance has to be tempered by the

quality of the field he beat. And right now, the reason that the Preakness field

was so bad is the two-week interval after the Derby.

There has been some serious discussion about making changes to the schedule

of the Triple Crown races and it looks like something might happen. I am not in

favor of a month between each race but an extra week between the Derby and

Preakness seems about right. For the Triple Crown to maintain its relevancy, the

Preakness has to get stronger and an extra week should only help.

One thing that Saturday's Preakness showed is that you can make money with

overwhelming favorites. Just like in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) with Untapable (Tapit),

keying a strong favorite like California Chrome yielded surprising results.

In the Oaks, the exacta with Untapable and the second choice, My Miss Sophia

(Unbridled's Song), returned $21.80. On Saturday, the exacta with California

Chrome and Ride On Curlin returned $18.20.

So the odds-on favorite with the third wagering choice returned 8-1. If you

did like I did and crushed California Chrome over Social Inclusion and Ride on

Curlin, you got $18.20 for every $4 bet or 7-2.

The amazing thing about the Preakness is the trifecta payoff. With the 1-2

favorite on top of the third and second choices, you got back an amazing $76. If

you boxed the three of them for $12, you got 5-1 for your money. If you keyed

the favorite over the two, you got back $76 for $4 or 18 to 1. If you keyed them

in wheels with either one of them first or second, you got back $76 for $16.

When you have an overwhelming favorite that is virtually unbeatable, there

can still be money won. You won't need your Social Security card to cash but I

think way too many players pass up opportunities because there is no perceived

overlay.

***

Gulfstream Park's Rainbow 6 has to be paid off on Monday and the pool could

reach $10 million. Because of the mandatory payoff, you can now play it as a

regular Pick 6 with a giant carryover pool except the 20 cent minimum bet

enables you to spread out and cover more combinations. Past performances should

be available Thursday and BRIS will have numerous handicapping products

available for you. Just keep your fingers crossed nobody hits it over the

weekend.