Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 6, 2015

by Dick Powell

Three Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races will be held this Saturday as the clock

ticks towards the first Saturday of May. At 4:50 p.m. (ET), the $400,000 Gotham

Stakes (G3) will be run on the inner dirt track at Aqueduct. Then, at 5:23 p.m.,

the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) will be run at Tampa Bay Downs and at 6 p.m.,

the $400,000 San Felipe Stakes (G2) will be run at Santa Anita.

All three races will be run at 1 1/16 miles around two turns and all three

will award 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, 20 points to the

second-place finisher, 10 points to the third-place finisher and 5 points to the

fourth-place finisher.

In the Gotham, a field of 10 has been assembled and three of them will run

coupled as a Todd Pletcher-trained entry. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) is the 8-to-5

favorite and rightfully so. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at

Churchill last November then came back here and won the Jerome Stakes (G3) by

more than four lengths.

Last out, El Kabeir battled for the lead in the Withers and weakened late

when Far From Over (Blame) blew by the field. He picks up one pound here and as

the only stakes winner in the field, he has to concede seven pounds to his nine

rivals. I was surprised that he gave up the lead as easily as he did in the

Withers and am concerned that he could be on the downside while representing

little pari-mutuel value.

The horse that I think can pull off the upset here is Tencendur (Warrior's

Reward). He showed in the Withers that he can compete with these but when the

running got serious, he refused to change leads. Since then, blinkers have been

added and the results have been spectacular; a fastest of 99 half-mile breeze on

February 21 and a fastest of 35 five-furlong breeze on March 1. Cornelio

Velasquez worked him in both starts and is back aboard on Saturday.

Tencendur is by a hot sire and his female family has been heating up. He is a

half-brother to Mother Russia (Mayakovsky), who won six stakes races and more

than $528K. She has produced Golden Barrows (Tapit), a Japan stakes winner and

one of their leading three-year-olds, and her two-year-old by Kitten's Joy was

an RNA for $390,000 at the Fasig-Tipton sale on Wednesday.

What I like about Tencendur is his cruising speed and if the blinkers are

working as well as it looks like they are in the morning, he will run much

better in the stretch. He's 8-to-1 in the morning line and worth the price.

The Tampa Bay Derby came up especially strong with nine three-year-olds

entered. Last year, Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) won the Breeders' Futurity

(G1) in his second career start and went to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) as

the favorite. He experienced a nightmare trip that day finishing second and

returns for his three-year-old debut off a series of strong workouts for Todd

Pletcher at Palm Beach Downs.

Ocean Knight (Curlin) broke his maiden first time out going six furlongs on

the inner dirt track at Aqueduct then shipped down to Tampa Bay and won the Sam

F. Davis Stakes (G3) going two turns. He was originally going to go back to New

York for the Gotham but his connections called an audible and will go in the

Tampa Bay Derby. A race over the track should be a big advantage on a surface

that can prove quirky.

The rest of the field seems evenly matched. Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) broke

his maiden last out going a one-turn mile and should have no trouble getting two

turns for Mark Casse. He will have to overcome the wide draw with Julien

Leparoux. Divining Rod (Tapit) could be the dangerous speed from the rail after

almost wiring the Sam F. Davis, especially with Thursday's news that the speedy

Super Colossal (War Front) will be scratched due to a fever.

Great Stuff (Quality Road) is still a maiden, but he's improved as the races

have gotten longer and posseses a devastating late kick. This is his two-turn

debut and his young sire was brilliant in these spots.

The headliner on Santa Anita's Saturday card is the Santa Anita Handicap (G1)

but the San Felipe should not be overlooked. This is the deepest of the Kentucky

Derby prep races of the weekend as it has attracted Dortmund (Big Brown), winner

of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and Robert Lewis Stakes (G2); LORD NELSON

(Pulpit), winner of the February 1 San Vicente Stakes (G2) going seven furlongs;

and OCHO OCHO OCHO (Street Sense), the unbeaten winner of the $1 million Delta

Jackpot (G3).

Taking on the trio of graded stakes winners will be the exciting Prospect

Park (Tapit), a big colt that took a while to get his act together but broke his

maiden two starts back then came right back to beat allowance foes by more than

five lengths in a good time.

Sir Samson (Smart Strike) broke his maiden going six furlongs second time out

and came back with a game third in the San Vicente. Brian Koriner removes

blinkers and stretches him out with the right pedigree being by Smart Strike,

sire of Curlin, and out of a dam by Malibu Moon, sire of Kentucky Derby winner

Orb.

With the weeks dwindling to a precious few, some of these horses have to step

up their games if they are going to earn enough points for entry in the Derby.

The puzzling thing is the presence of Dortmund, who does not need this race. A

strong effort could set him back and a poor effort ruins his undefeated record.

He has shown tremendous courage in his races but that could backfire in here if

he gets challenged, which appears likely to happen.

Ocho Ocho Ocho makes his seasonal debut off a 105-day layoff. He won both

starts here last year going short in fast time then stretched out to two turns

to win the Delta Jackpot. I love his pedigree being by Kentucky Derby winner

Street Sense and his third dam is the immortal Personal Ensign. There is plenty

of distance genes on the dirt and Mike Smith seems to be doing everything right

in the saddle. Take him for the mild upset.