Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

APRIL 24, 2015

by Dick Powell

Is it better to be "Too much, too soon" or "Better late than never." The

answer to this question will probably decide this year's Kentucky Derby (G1).

Too much too soon usually applies to the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile

(G1) and/or Juvenile champion. It is a horse that ran terrific early in his

career but has trouble getting back to that effort at three. They are usually

the type of horse that matures early but stops maturing. As the others catch up,

that individual loses his edge even though he will probably still be bet on

reputation.

The better late than never type applies to the three-year-old that suddenly

gets good on the eve of the Derby and looks like he has finally put it all

together. They just might be slow learners but could be horses that got a late

start to their campaign due to physical setbacks. The question to answer is

whether the recent stellar form a mirage or a sign of things to come.

Perhaps the best classic contenders are those that run well at two and then

are able to recapture that form early in their three-year-old season. They have

the least amount of questions going into the big race.

INTERNATIONAL STAR (Fusaichi Pegasus) has the most Derby eligibility points

and while his highest BRIS Speed rating does not put him in the upper echelon

this year, he seems to improve each start. His last six starts have seen his

BRIS Speed rating go from 85 to 87 to 89 to 94 to 97 to 99 when winning the

Louisiana Derby (G2) last out. Will another small move forward be enough to put

him in the mix?

DORTMUND (Big Brown) looks perfectly managed since trying two turns, he has

run 97, 101, 102 and 106 Speed figs. Will the 106 be too much of an effort or

can he repeat that effort? If he can repeat it, he's in the top three.

CARPE DIEM (Giant's Causeway) won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in

his second career start off a maiden win going 5 1/2 furlongs and then was a

troubled second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He ran back to his two-year-old

top last out in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and it looks like a forward move

could be coming.

AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof the Nile) ran big as a two-year-old winning the

Del Mar Futurity (G1) and ran back to that effort last out in the Arksansas

Derby (G1). There is nothing not to like about him.

FROSTED (Tapit) showed some talent at two, ran poorly in his first two starts

at three then exploded last out when winning the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial

(G1) and earning a monstrous BRIS Speed rating of 107. Will that race set him

back or was it an indication that Kiaran McLaughlin's complete makeover

transformed him into the horse to beat?

MUBTAAHIJ (Dubawi) is an immensely talented colt that prospered on Meydan's

new dirt track in Dubai. He was sensational winning the U.A.E. Derby (G2) going

1 3/16 miles and his trainer, Mike de Kock, is one of the world's best. The colt

is mostly an unknown but before you throw him out, watch the stretch run of the

U.A.E. Derby again.

MATERIALITY (Afleet Alex) did not make his career debut until January 11 when

he won on a sloppy track and then came back to win going two turns against a

decent stakes field. Despite the lack of seasoning, he captured the Florida

Derby (G1) and earned a BRIS Speed rating of 105 for Todd Pletcher. Yes, it

helps to have two-year-old form since it gives a horse experience but this one

might have enough raw talent to overcome it.

EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy) has had nine career starts and four already this year.

He has strong early speed but has come from behind in his last two starts. He's

been a better two-year-old than three-year-old but does have a win on the

Churchill Downs main track.

UPSTART (Flatter) ran huge at two earning a BRIS Speed rating of 106 in the 6

1/2-furlong Funny Cide Stakes. Trainer Rick Violette has been trying to get to

the first Saturday in May without using him too hard so he backed off him a

little after winning the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) in January with a BRIS Speed

rating of 105.

FAR RIGHT (Notional) has been the model of consistency but just doesn't seem

fast enough with a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 96.

ITSAKNOCKOUT (Lemon Drop Kid) has a terrible pattern coming into the race of

declining BRIS Speed ratings. After beating allowance foes at Gulfstream Park

and earning a BRIS Speed rating of 102 going a mile, he came back with a 91 and

an 82 last out. Not the way you want to come up to a big race.

FIRING LINE (Line of David) has a very strong pattern with a close second

behind Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) where he earned a BRIS Speed

rating of 97. He followed that up this year with another close finish behind

Dortmund (100) then went to New Mexico where he won the Sunland Park Derby (G3)

and earned a 102.

DANZIG MOON (Malibu Moon) could be a key horse to evaluate. He broke his

maiden at Gulfstream going a mile and earned a 92 BRIS Speed rating. Mark Casse

shipped him up to Tampa Bay where he was a bad fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby

(G2) and his number regressed to an 81. Last out, he was second to Carpe Diem in

the Blue Grass and earned a 99. Did Carpe Diem beat a bad field in the Blue

Grass based on Danzig Moon's two prior races?

WAR STORY (Northern Afleet) could not win in three starts against stakes

company at the Fair Grounds this spring and just doesn't look fast enough.

TENCENDUR (Warrior's Reward) is this year's Rorschach Test. Do you see a

horse that jumped 15 points with his BRIS Speed rating and think he has to go

backwards, or do you see a horse that is finally putting it together after

getting off the Aqueduct inner dirt track? His 105 in the Wood makes him a major

contender if you can make the case that it was not a fluke.