Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 11, 2006

by Dick Powell

Speed is like a shotgun -- dangerous in anyone's hands.

A speedy horse in the hands of an expert rider can be even more dangerous. In

last Sunday's West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer Park, Mark Guidry was

aboard the even-money favorite BRIGHT ONE (Dance Brightly) and he did more than

just control the pace with the horse with the most gate speed.

With the scratches of both halves of the West Point Thoroughbred-owned entry,

Flashy Bull (Holy Bull) and High Finance (Talk Is Money), and breaking from post

1, Guidry looked like he would send the speedy Bright One to the front in order

to keep from getting shuffled back early going into the first turn.

A monster maiden winner two starts back at Churchill going a mile in 1:33 4/5

in only his second lifetime start and winner of the Forestry H. at Churchill in

his previous start, Bright One was making his two-turn debut in the West

Virginia Derby, but immense talent can overcome inexperience. As if on cue, he

broke right on top and had the lead going into the clubhouse turn.

At this point Guidry showed why he is a top rider when he kept Bright One at

least three to five paths off the rail. Early speed is dangerous enough when the

leader is able to set his own pace and control the race on the front end, but it

also enables the rider to choose the best path. The rail at Mountaineer was not

the place to be on Sunday and Guidry used Bright One's gate speed to avoid

running over it.

From there it was a cakewalk as Bright One dominated. He drew off to a 5

3/4-length win and it could have been more. His BRIS Speed figure was a

respectable 107 and he's now three-for-four overall with the Travers S. (G1) in

three weeks as a possible next start.

Last year, Guidry had a spectacular season, winning at a gaudy 25 percent

clip for the last eight months of the year. This year, he is only winning at 12

percent and most of it is due to not getting the first call on many Dale

Romans-trained starters after switching agents. But don't let the lower win

percentage fool you, Guidry is still as crafty as anyone he faces on a daily

basis.

A historical example of brilliant use of gate speed was Laffit Pincay Jr.'s

ride aboard the great Affirmed in the 1979 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). The year

before, in the first battle of Triple Crown winners, Seattle Slew used a burst

of speed out of the gate to open up a clear lead on Affirmed in the Woodward S.

(G1) and pull off the upset. It was one of Angel Cordero Jr.'s greatest rides.

The next year, the speed advantage was in Affirmed's favor when he faced

Spectacular Bid in the Gold Cup. Right from the start, Pincay seized the

advantage and kept Affirmed far off the rail in the 1 1/2-mile contest. Willie

Shoemaker chased aboard the Bid and each time he peeked inside, Pincay never

flinched. He kept Affirmed on the best part of the track and Spectacular Bid

chased him every step.

It was the last race of Affirmed's illustrious career which saw him win not

only the 1978 Triple Crown (the last to do so), but an incredible 14 Grade 1

stakes.

It was also the last year that Spectacular Bid ever tasted defeat as he ran

the table at four in a campaign that saw track records and a world record. How

good was the Bid? After winning the first eight starts in one of the greatest

four-year-old campaigns of all time, his last race was a walkover in the

Woodward when nobody was willing to face him. But as good as he was, he tasted

defeat against Affirmed when he was outsprinted to the lead in a 1 1/2-mile race

and could not get to the best part of the track.

At Monmouth Park, the even-money favorite also won the big stakes race for

three-year-olds. BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat) was able to chase a modest pace set

by Praying for Cash (Songandaprayer) and draw off to an easy seven-length win in

the $1 million Haskell Invitational S. (G1).

Breaking from post 9 against his eight rivals and unseen since a second in

the Belmont S. (G1), Bluegrass Cat was kept out in the clear every step of the

way by John Velazquez. Sometimes at Monmouth this strategy doesn't work, but

when Velazquez pushed the button he went by Praying for Cash as he pleased.

After the race, trainer Todd Pletcher did not seem terribly bullish on coming

back in the Travers S. against BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy). I know in today's world

three weeks between races seems like running back the next day, but it's the

last $1 million race against straight three-year-olds on the calendar and we'll

have to wait to see how Bluegrass Cat comes out of the Haskell to see what

Pletcher decides to do.

*****

Arlington Park will host the International Festival of Racing this Saturday,

August 12, and the two marquee events - the Beverly D. S. (G1) and Arlington

Million (G1) - came up especially strong.

In the Beverly D., which kicks off a daily double with the Million, 11

fillies and mares will contest the 1 3/16-mile event. GORELLA (Fr) (Grape Tree

Road [GB]) heads up the field from the rail as the 5-2 morning line favorite

with Julien Leparoux in the irons for his main man, Patrick Biancone.

Last seen making an impossible stretch run to win the Just a Game H. (G2) at

Belmont Park, Gorella's been training at Turfway Park over Polytrack. After just

missing in her U.S. debut last year in the Queen Elizabeth II Invitational Challenge Cup

S. (G1) at Keeneland, Biancone ran her back against males in the Breeders' Cup Mile

(G1) and with any luck she would have won. Her workouts have been sensational

and the only negative is Leparoux's habit of always taking back, which could

lead to having too much traffic to overcome when the running gets serious.

For a price horse to box with Gorella, I'll go with LIVE LIFE (Fr) (Linamix)

who looks like she would prefer a turf course with some give in it. She ships in

for Neil Drysdale and will have no trouble getting the distance. If it rains,

she'll be real tough.

In the Arlington Million, you have your pick of four international shippers.

SOLDIER HOLLOW (GB) (In the Wings [GB]) intrigues me the most and has a

devastating late kick. He should be able to get covered up early and save some

ground.

At the age of eight, THE TIN MAN (Affirmed) is having a sensational year with

two Grade 2 stakes wins and a huge second in the Dubai Duty Free H. (UAE-G1) at

Nad al Sheba behind David Junior (Pleasant Tap), who confirmed his form as one

of the top middle-distance runners in the world when he won the Coral-Eclipse S.

(Eng-G1) at Sandown, England, on July 8.

PHOENIX REACH (Ire) (Alhaarth) has not been out in 13 months, but he is a

proven world traveler that has already shown an ability to run well fresh.

Winner of the Canadian International S. (Can-G1) three years ago at Woodbine in

his only North American start, he won the Hong Kong Vase (HK-G1) at four and the

Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) at five. The only question with Phoenix Reach is

that his best races have come at 12 furlongs and the Million is over 10

furlongs. He'll need a tiring turf course to do his best.

We'll box Soldier Hollow, The Tin Man and Phoenix Reach in exacta and

trifecta boxes along with a win/place bet on Soldier Hollow, who should go off

at long odds.