Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 26, 2007

by Dick Powell

It may only be January and the major Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races have yet

to be run, but there's been plenty of action in the sophomore ranks already. At

Santa Anita on January 15, EXHALE (Millennium Wind) broke his maiden second time

out as the heavy 3-10 favorite. He was away a bit slowly, which is what he did in his

career debut, and Corey Nakatani did his best to keep him from running up the heels

of the leaders down the backstretch.

With both feet on the dashboard, Nakatani was able to get Exhale to move up

between horses going into the turn through a first quarter in :21.54. Around the

turn, he sat outside the leader biding his time before pouncing turning for

home. The response was swift and sudden as he drew off to a five-length victory

and stopped the teletimer in 1:15.91 for 6 1/2 furlongs. Trained by John Sadler,

Exhale covered the first six furlongs in a very quick 1:09.44.

It's unlikely that any allowance races will fill out at Santa Anita if

there's a chance that Exhale might show up, so his next start will probably be

in stakes company. His fantastic acceleration reminded me of Vindication in his

first two races.

At Gulfstream on January 13, Darley Stable unveiled a debut runner sired by

A.P. Indy, just like they unveiled three-year-old champion Bernardini last year

in January. But unlike Bernardini, MANDURAH (A.P. Indy) was ready to win first

out.

Breaking from post 3 against 10 other rivals with Edgar Prado aboard as the

5-1 third choice in the wagering, Mandurah was able relax as best as possible

despite running in traffic down the backstretch.

Midway around the far turn, Prado began to ask Mandurah for run while still

on the inside. He needed urging to catch up to the leaders, but he kept on

running to the wire and ran down firster Red Missile (Red Bullet) by three

quarters of a length. Mandurah's winning time of 1:24.37 was slower than the

other division of the seven-furlong maiden special weight races run earlier in

the day but visually very impressive.

By a leading stallion and out of the stakes-winning Machiavellian mare

Morning Pride (Ire), Mandurah is bred to run a lot longer so the fact that he

won first out in a sprint shows an abundance of natural talent.

Darley Stables swept both divisions as CAME TO PASS (Came Home) overcame a

sluggish start from post 1 to dominate last the half-mile of his heat and win by

a length. His winning time of 1:23.36 was faster than Mandurah's, but I feel that

Mandurah was more visually impressive.

He may have faded to fourth after chasing the early pace in the same race as

Came to Pass, but I think that Rock Pulpit (Pulpit) has a chance to be a good

one when the races stretch out. Look for him to return at a mile or 1 1/8 miles

next time out.

Also on January 13 at Gulfstream, OUR SACRED HONOR (Honour and Glory) was an

impressive winner of a first-level allowance race going a mile in 1:37.10. A

come-from-behind winner last out at Churchill, Our Sacred Honor showed a

different dimension here when he gunned to the front and never looked back with

John Velazquez aboard.

Our Sacred Honor's final time was not as good as the above-mentioned

seven-furlong maiden races, but at least he has shown a versatility in running

styles that should be a big help as the races go longer.

The second division of the first-level allowance race going a mile was won by

BOLD START (Jump Start), who overcame post 1 and some traffic while stuck down

on the inside. Third in last year's Cradle S. at River Downs and unplaced in the

Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland on Polytrack, Bold Start was making his

first start in 98 days for Ken McPeek.

Bold Start's winning time was 1:36.37, and I thought it was a better

performance than Our Sacred Honor both objectively and subjectively. And on

January 20, John Kimmel sent out CHIEF TALKEETNA (Chief Seattle) to a sharp 5

1/2-length win over some high-class maidens at Gulfstream. A rallying third last

month on the Aqueduct inner dirt track, Chief Talkeetna broke from post 12,

pressed the pace three wide down the backstretch, and took over in the stretch

to run down early leader Open Sleigh (Touch Gold). It's unclear how far Chief

Talkeetna will go with a pedigree slanted toward speed, but he's already learned

how to relax and finish his race strongly.

The two to watch are Exhale and Mandurah. They might not be ready for prime

time by the first Saturday of May, but both should be major three-year-olds this

year.

Every once in a while you have to re-charge the batteries and next week will

be time for my wife and I to do so. We are going on a cruise and while I have

been assured that the ship has an on-board wireless internet system, the boss

has spoken and my laptop will only be used to watch movies and check emails.

At least when I get back there will some great racing to talk about

highlighted by the Donn H. (G1) that will showcase 2006 Horse of the Year

INVASOR (Candy Stripes), who will use the race as a prep for his epic battle

coming in March against DISCREET CAT (Forestry) in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1).