Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 1, 2009

by Dick Powell

The 135th Run for the Roses will be contested on Saturday as Churchill Downs

hosts the Kentucky Derby (G1), the most exciting two minutes in sports. Most

years in the spring, I watch the Derby prep races but wait for someone to reach

out and grab my attention. This year, that moment came early.

I have been impressed by PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) since he won the

CashCall Futurity (G1) at the end of last year at Hollywood Park. With a

pedigree that screamed Kentucky Derby and all his races going two turns, he

caught my eye despite a schedule that deemed he would make his dirt debut this

Saturday.

Newly-elected Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has had three horses win the

first leg of the Triple Crown. Silver Charm and Real Quiet both won the first two legs before suffering heart-breaking defeats in

the Belmont S. (G1).

Point Given lost the Derby when Baffert tried to ease him

through the first leg and have a fresher horse for the Belmont. He romped in the

Preakness S. (G1) and Belmont and Baffert has been second-guessing himself since then.

The following year he had War Emblem win the first two legs of the

Triple Crown before going down in the Belmont, but he was a late purchase for

whom Baffert did not dictate his early season schedule.

When Pioneerof the Nile won his first start for Baffert in late December, I

thought that he would only give him two prep races to get him ready but the

conditioner

surprised me by running him three times in the past three months. It looked like

he quickly surmised that he had a Derby horse and wasn't going to take any

chances this year. He wasn't going to squeeze the lemon too dry but he wasn't

going to come out of the Derby with a lemon filled with juice. Training top

horses is a balancing act and Baffert decided to race three times as a way of

maintaining fitness.

You can find all the fault you want in Pioneerof the Nile's three stakes wins

at Santa Anita this year but the fact is that he got through all of them despite

some unusual circumstances. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he was caught in tight

quarters early and when the pace slowed even further he pulled Garrett Gomez to

the lead down the backstretch with more than five furlongs to run. From there he

cruised home but because of the dreadfully slow early pace he only earned a BRIS

Speed rating of 95.

Once he was switched to the Baffert barn in southern California, he wasn't

going to race on anything but synthetic racing surfaces until Saturday. But I

think the forgiving nature of synthetic tracks have helped Baffert keep him fit

and sound.

Now that he is at Churchill Downs, all Pioneerof the Nile has done is work

like a horse that loves dirt tracks. His work on Monday was a sight to see as

exercise rider Joe Steiner broke him off nearing the half-mile pole and, with his head

down, he cruised to the finish line in about 48 seconds. His official workout

was 1:01 breezing for five furlongs, but it was his run around the clubhouse turn

and down the backstretch that was most impressive.

Horses who are enjoying good footing are able to get their weight up

underneath them as their rear legs come forward. You could see Pioneerof the

Nile striding beautifully throughout the workout but especially around the

turns. He's a very athletic horse, which is a bit unusual for a horse with such a

long stride, and as he has already shown, gives Gomez many options on where to

place him. His six-furlong time was 1:13 2/5 and he probably covered seven

furlongs in 1:26. Nobody in this year's Derby is working better.

So, here's my problem: I can't be any more confident of his chances on

Saturday. Even from post 16, which Baffert surprisingly picked with the fifth

choice in the post position draw, I still love him. Do I take all this extra

confidence and bet even more on him or stay within my comfort zone and bet him

the way I like any horse that is facing 19 rivals?

I honestly can't answer that question right now. The undercard looks juicy so

much of my wager will depend on how I do on the early races. And, I'll keep most

of my bankroll aside for the Derby but any early profits will go on the Derby as

well.

Underneath Pioneerof the Nile I am going to go with DESERT PARTY (Street

Cry [Ire]), who looked so good in Dubai this winter; CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride

[Arg]), who

is also making his dirt debut; SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone), who had enough late

energy to be a factor in deep stretch of the Arkansas Derby (G2); I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even),

the probable post-time favorite, DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song), the lightly-raced

Todd Pletcher colt; and FRIESAN FIRE (A.p. Indy), who should benefit from the field's

lack of pace.

I'll play Pioneerof the Nile to win with most of my bankroll. I'll then key

him in trifectas with him on top of the above mentioned horses. At expected odds

around 9-2 it doesn't pay to spread him too deep in the other positions. At

best, I'll take the above six and play them on top of him in exactas. I don't

think that this year's Derby is wide open and the logical contenders will all be

tough. I'm only playing a couple of longshots with them but it's all up to

Pioneerof the Nile to get the job done at the top of the ticket.