Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 2, 2007

by Dick Powell

Haven't we seen this before? Last year, Horse of the Year INVASOR (Arg) (Candy

Stripes) came to Dubai off a campaign in South America after being purchased by

a member of the ruling Maktoum family.

This year, Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum purchased ASIATIC BOY (Not

for Sale) off a campaign in Argentina, where he just missed winning the Gran

Criterium (Arg-G1) at San Isidro in his last start of the season in South America.

Now trained by South African Mike de Kock, he dominated a seven-furlong

conditions race over the fibresand of Nad al Sheba's main track on the

opening night of the Dubai International Racing Carnival.

Next out was the U.A.E. Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G3) going a mile and Asiatic Boy

romped again, this time by 4 1/2 lengths in good time. It was a measured win,

indicating nine furlongs (or 1,800 meters) would be no problem.

In Thursday's Al Bastakiya S., essentially a $150,000 stakes run under

allowance conditions, Asiatic Boy was assigned 132 pounds since he is a

Southern Hemisphere three-year-old and is about six months older than his Northern

Hemisphere competition. His main rival was Day Pass (Five Star Day), who was

undefeated in two starts last year including the Nashua S. (G3) at Aqueduct

going a mile.

Day Pass showed high speed when wiring the field in the Nashua but was

outgunned for the lead by Weichong Marwing aboard Asiatic Boy on Thursday. The 1-2 favorite

took the early lead but did it without getting keyed up as Marwing had a handful

of horse beneath him. Frankie Dettori tracked him with Day Pass and tried to go up after Asiatic Boy

with a half-mile to go to make a race of it.

Marwing and Asiatic Boy would have nothing of it, cruising away to a clear

lead turning for home, and the only drama would be how far would he win by,

how fast would he run and who would finish second.

Without any urging from Marwing, Asiatic Boy won the 1,800-meter event by

seven easy lengths. His final time of 1:48.27 was excellent -- far faster than

the last two runnings of the Al Bastakiya -- and a tick faster than Discreet

Cat's (Forestry) U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) last year at the same distance. Victory Tetsuni (Gone West)

was able to get up for second after rallying from far back in his first race

outside Japan.

In the Mahab al Shimaal S. (UAE-G3), a six-furlong sprint down the straightaway at Nad al Sheba, Sheikh Rashid bin Mohammed al Maktoum won it with an American

shipper, but not the one that you might have expected. Last year, Sheikh Rashid

purchased champion and Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Thor's Echo (Swiss

Yodeler) with the Dubai

Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) in mind on the Dubai World Cup card.

The Mahab al Shimaal was supposed to be Thor's Echo's prep for the Golden Shaheen,

but nobody told Sheikh Rashid's other entrant, TERRIFIC CHALLENGE (Royal

Academy), who rallied from far back to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths over the Doug Watson-trained Bounty Quest

(Fasliyev).

Thor's Echo, sent off at 3-5, broke well, settled behind the two pacesetters,

but had no closing kick when Richard Mullen asked him to go. He finished sixth,

beaten about four lengths, but as far as prep races go, it should have

accomplished what he needed for the Golden Shaheen. Don't dismiss him just

yet.

Terrific Challenge raced in North America last year for Stanley Hough, mostly

in turf sprints, before being purchased by Sheikh Rashid. He was ridden to

victory by Ryan Moore, who timed his late rally perfectly. Terrific Challenge,

sent off at odds of 23-1, covered the six furlongs in 1:09.66.

German-bred QUIJANO (Acatenango) has had a terrific Carnival and now has won

three races going 1 1/2 miles on the turf. Winner of his prior seven

starts in Germany, he now has a 10-race winning streak; the latest being the

$200,000 Dubai City of Gold S. (UAE-G3). He'll go next to the $5 million Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) over a course that he clearly loves, but

he will face killer

competition

What should have been Discreet Cat's final prep race for his upcoming epic

battle with Invasor turned out to be a major disappointment as the

undefeated colt had to be scratched because of a slight fever that he was

running on the morning of the race.

"He was a bit

quiet this morning and we found he had a bit of a temperature," trainer Saeed bin Suroor

said. "It's a real shame

as he was working well and in good condition. He is looking much better already

and we will see how he is in the next couple of days."

At the moment, the $6 million Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) is still on the agenda and

we can only keep our fingers crossed that he is able to make it to the race in

top form as he will take on Invasor and PREMIUM TAP (Pleasant Tap).

Still, 15 other runners contested the $200,000 Burj Nahaar S. (UAE-G3) at 1,600

meters (about a mile) on the fibresand. Watson, who upset the Mahab al Shimaal,

won again with a longshot when the 24-1 BOSTON LODGE (Grand Lodge) rallied to win going

away. A just reward for entering a race in which Discreet Cat was supposed

to run.

This year's Dubai World Cup card will be held on March 31 -- a week later than

in the past. Also, the United States will be going to Daylight Savings Time on

March 11, so the races will be seen over here an hour later than what we are used

to.

This means that the Dubai World Cup will be run at 1:30 p.m. (EDT), which

will enable more racing fans in more time zones to follow the entire World Cup

card. With the strength of all the races looking to be at an all-time high, it

should be a great day of racing.