Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JUNE 15, 2007

by Dick Powell

Lost in all the negativity that the media gave out was a fabulous Triple

Crown this year with three exciting races that will be hard to match in years to

come. First it was "No Triple Crown this year" when Curlin (Smart Strike) came

back to beat Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Preakness (G1). Then it was

"No Street Sense in the Belmont (G1)" when trainer Carl Nafzger decided to rest

his colt without history on the line.

When Todd Pletcher announced that he was going to enter Kentucky Oaks (G1)

winner RAGS TO RICHES (A.P. Indy) in the Belmont, it was "No filly has won the

Belmont since 1905," "Pletcher is 0-for-28 in Triple Crown races" and rider

Johnny Velazquez was "Winless in 10 Triple Crown starts." It's amazing that

anyone showed up at Belmont or watched the coverage on TV.

But, for the 46,870 that did show up and for those that watched on ABC-TV,

they were treated to a race for the ages. Racing has a new star, two, in fact,

and despite all the negative media attention surrounding it, the Belmont Stakes

was as good as it gets.

The early betting on the race was much more even than expected. With three

hours to go, Curlin was at 9-5 since everyone else was being overbet. As post

time approached, the money showed on Curlin who went off as the 11-10 favorite.

Rags to Riches drifted up to 43-10 while Hard Spun (Danzig) went off at 49-10.

Everything I was hoping for was coming true before the race. Belmont's main

track was playing fair with a variety of running styles and paths leading to

success. The odds on Rags to Riches had stabilized at what we hoped for -- 7-2

-- and then drifted up to 4-1. I couldn't have been more confident.

When Rags to Riches loaded into post 7, all was well with the world. Then the

gate opened and she went to her knees at the start. Velazquez recovered

beautifully without losing his balance and at first glance it didn't look too

bad. However, still photos from the rail looking out showed how bad a stumble it

was and how miraculous it was that Velazquez was able to stay aboard.

With new rider Garrett Gomez in the saddle, Hard Spun was expected

to use his speed to his advantage and go to the front. But it was Edgar Prado on

C P West (Came Home) going into the first turn in front with Slew's Tizzy (Tiznow)

pressing him on the outside.

Prado, channeling Laffit Pincay Jr. who went way wide aboard Conquistador

Cielo into the first turn of the 1982 Belmont in an effort go get him to relax,

kept C P West far from the rail and forced the other riders to make some quick

decisions. Gomez started to go inside but then thought twice about it and veered

Hard Spun to the outside to get a clear stalking position.

Robby Albarado kept Curlin on the inside for a ground-saving trip while

Velazquez had no choice but to stalk on the outside in an effort to keep Rags to

Riches relaxed. With all the riders using their steering wheels to get to where

they wanted to be they forgot one thing -- hit the gas pedal!

The early pace of the Belmont was excruciatingly slow as the riders were playing

a cat-and-mouse game. C P West went the first quarter in :24.74, the half in

:50.14 and the third quarter in 1:15.32. Everyone maintained their initial

positions with deep closer Tiago (Pleasant Tap) much closer to the pace in

sixth. In the fourth quarter, the pace picked up some as they hit the far turn

in 1:40.23.

C P West still had the lead, but Slew's Tizzy began to labor and faded out of

it. Gomez had Hard Spun on the outside and Velazquez had Rags to Riches even

farther out. Stalking a slow pace while down on the inside is not always the

best place to be, but Albarado used Curlin's acceleration to get out from the

inside traffic and bullied his way between C P West and Hard Spun.

Seemingly none the worse for the wear of her stumbling break, Rags to Riches

was four wide turning for home and with the ground loss she had every excuse to

pack it in. But not this filly. She pounced on the leaders turning for home and

opened a neck lead. Curlin responded beautifully and, when Hard Spun and C P West

couldn't keep up, the duel was on.

With a final quarter of :23.83, Velazquez was able to keep Rags to Riches in

front despite Curlin battling on gamely. It may have been the five weeks' rest,

it may have been catching a tired Curlin, it may have been the five-pound sex

allowance or it may have been that Rags to Riches is a great filly that took on

the boys at the right time and distance. For whatever reason, Rags to Riches

would not yield the margin she seized at the top of the stretch and she battled

to a head victory over a courageous Curlin. It was 5 1/2 lengths back to Tiago

in third.

Curlin is a magnificent colt that has thrived on the rigors of the Triple

Crown. He got a late start to his career, immediately changed trainers, and was

rushed into the Triple Crown. Yet, in the final furlong of his first and only

attempt to get 12 furlongs on the main track, he ran as if he was the one coming

into the race well rested. Curlin has a cardiovascular system that is

never-ending. Every time Albarado asks him for more, gas suddenly appears in the

tank. Go back and watch all his races and how he finishes them. It's really

amazing to see.

Gomez has taken a lot of criticism over his tentative ride aboard Hard Spun.

With Hard Spun's size and stride, the sensible tactic would have been to go to

the front and get into a rhythm. He certainly had more than enough pedigree to

be worried about getting the distance. But Gomez got caught up in the

cat-and-mouse game and seemed to be more concerned with what Albarado was doing

on Curlin. Trainer Larry Jones was upset after the race, but it's hard to muster

any sympathy for someone that fired regular rider Mario Pino after the Preakness.

As for Rags to Riches, Pletcher has the luxury of spacing her races out so

that if he wants to run her in the Travers S. (G1) at Saratoga against the boys

again, he can use the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Belmont on July 21

against fillies. That would give her five weeks between races and she has shown

she thrives on rest. Don't be so sure that if Street Sense shows up for the

Travers the result is going to be any different than last Saturday. She's that

good.