Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

NOVEMBER 13, 2009

by Dick Powell

It was not a good Breeders' Cup for me until about 3:57 p.m. Pacific time

when it was worth all the money I had lost on Saturday.

My handicapping angle that Aidan O'Brien was going to have a great Breeders'

Cup for a change looked good on Friday when MAN OF IRON (Giant's Causeway) upset

the Marathon by a nose for Team Ballydoyle. But that was the only O'Brien

trainee that raced with Lasix and whether it was a coincidence or not, the

others that did not race with the diuretic ran terribly.

So instead of having 24-1 longshot Ready's Echo (More than Ready) on top in

the Dirt Mile (G1), I had him second with O'Brien trainee Mastercraftsman (Ire)

(Danehill Dancer) on top. In the Juvenile (G1), I went with O'Brien's Alfred

Nobel (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) and had the 30-1 winner only third. On Friday, I

went with 3-2 favorite Lillie Langtry (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) on top and 10-1

winner TAPITSFLY (Tapit) picked for second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. And in

the biggest screw-up of the weekend, I went with Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo

[Ire]) instead of ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Classic (G1).

It's not like any of this should have been a surprise since O'Brien's

Breeders' Cup record has been poor. Somehow, I thought he would make the

necessary changes and show up loaded for bear. To add salt to the wound, his

horses were all overbet so they represented little pari-mutuel value.

One reason that O'Brien has had so much trouble when racing in the United

States is how poorly his horses get away from the gate. Here is how the O'Brien

horses broke from the gate during the Breeders' Cup:

Man of Iron: 9th of 10

Lillie Langtry: 8th of 12

Viscount Nelson (Giant's Causeway): 12th of 12

Beethoven (Ire) (Oratorio [Ire]): 10th of 13

Alfred Nobel: 12th of 13

Mastercraftsman: 7th of 10

Rip Van Winkle: 10th of 12.

In American racing, that's too much ground to concede whether it's the main

track or the turf.

But, years ago, Hall of Fame trainer John Nerud was quoted as saying, "A bad

day at the track is better than a good day anywhere else." It couldn't have been

any truer than last Saturday at Santa Anita.

The Breeders' Cup Classic has been run 26 times (not 25 like I wrote last

week), and Saturday's running ranks up there with the first one with Wild Again

desperately holding on and surviving a long stewards' inquiry; the 1988 edition

with Alysheba rallying to win in near darkness, the 1989 edition with Sunday

Silence holding off Easy Goer; and the 2001 edition with Tiznow "wins it for

America."

I'm not saying Saturday's edition was better, but that it ranks right with

these great championship races. My personal favorite has always been the 1989

edition because of all the tension and drama attached to the race.

Much of handicapping is extrapolation. A horse is successful in one

circumstance and now you have to project how it will do in a different one.

Zenyatta was undefeated in 13 starts and most of those races were at 1 1/16

miles. She had never run 1 1/4 miles, so even at the age of five she was

entering unknown territory.

A big handicapping mistake that we all make is that we extrapolate a horse

that makes up ground in a shorter race and conclude that they will be able to

handle longer distances. Another big handicapping mistake that we all make is

that we conclude that a horse that tires at a shorter distance will tire more at

a longer distance without ever taking pace scenarios into consideration.

In Zenyatta's case, I've been waiting for her to stretch out in distance

based not only on running style but on a truly stout pedigree. Her sire, Street

Cry (Ire), has become a major source of stamina in pedigrees both here and

abroad, as his son SHOCKING won the two-mile Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) earlier in

the week in Australia.

As her trainer John Shirreffs has said, the fact that she was undefeated in

13 starts while coming from behind is truly remarkable. A lot can go wrong when

you do not dictate your own circumstances, but she was always good enough to

overcome anything thrown in her path. Finally, last Saturday, we got to see her

run at what should be her optimum distance.

In Zenyatta's case, it didn't matter who she was facing. What was more

important was that she was facing them at 10 furlongs. That extra furlong

between nine and 10 seems to separate many pretenders from contenders. On

Saturday, it confirmed greatness.

After Quality Road (Elusive Quality) had to be scratched at the gate due to a

physical and mental meltdown, Mike Smith had Zenyatta away last from the gate.

She ran very awkwardly through the stretch the first time as he was trying to

get her to race on her correct lead. We have written in this space many times

how Zenyatta does not warm up before the race, and that the first half-mile is

used for that purpose, so we had little cause for concern.

Down the backstretch with 11 male rivals ahead of her, Smith was able to

close the gap and with a half-mile to go she was in contact with the field. He

kept her to the inside as much as possible to save ground and she began to find

her best stride around the far turn.

Despite her enormous size and stride, Zenyatta is amazingly athletic. She

runs with her weight underneath her with great balance. In the past, Smith rode

like you are supposed to ride a 1-5 favorite -- go around horses using a clear

path. Now, he had to ride her like any other racehorse and he steered her inside

horses nearing the top of the stretch.

Zenyatta's response was without hesitation and she shot through the hole like

a bullet. With a wall of about five horses in front of her, Smith switched her

to the outside but had to wait a few strides for Twice Over (GB) (Observatory)

to clear. With about a furlong to go, Smith had her in the position that he

wanted and just like in the Clement Hirsch S. (G1) at Del Mar, when she used her

incredible stride to get to the wire, her male rivals never had a chance.

She flew the last furlong like Forego in the Marlboro Cup (G1) and won going

away. To show you how strong she was going 10 furlongs, she galloped out even

farther in front after the wire in a brazen display of dominance. Forget the

fact that she was a female facing males, Zenyatta's Classic win was not to be

denied. If she was ever going to beat, it was at the shorter distances. If she

ran 10 furlongs 14 times, she would be 14-for-14 as well. But, it would have

been a lot easier.

I'll leave all the comparisons between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia

d'Oro) to others. But there is one issue I have to comment on. I was at Saratoga

sitting in section C for the Woodward S. (G1) and Rachel's exciting win. It was

the loudest crowd I ever heard at Saratoga. I was at Santa Anita for the

Breeders' Cup on Saturday sitting in section K. There was no comparison between

the crowd noise and how long the celebratory mood after the race was sustained.

Saturday was better. And this is from someone that lost a lot of money. I'd do

it again in a heartbeat. It was a great day at the track.