Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

SEPTEMBER 27, 2013

by Dick Powell

I might not know the difference between an obtuse and acute angle but I think

I have found a solid handicapping angle for the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) this

Saturday at Belmont Park. It's a bit convoluted but I could be on to something.

Orb (Malibu Moon) made it through the Triple Crown and then needed a rest.

Shug McGaughey shipped him down to Fair Hill Training Center, which not only has

a quiet place to train but state-of-the-art therapeutic facilities. If you want

basic R&R, go to Saratoga. If you want R&R with some therapy thrown in, Fair

Hill is the place to go.

Whatever the reason, it seemed to work and Orb was pointed for the Travers

Stakes (G1). Rather than give him a prep race, he trained him up to the Travers

which in recent memory is correct, only Nick Zito was able to pull that off with

Birdstone and he didn't compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown like Orb

did.

So Orb makes it to the Travers on works alone and runs a terrific race. Jose

Lezcano, filling in for the injured Joel Rosario, had him up closer to the pace

than normal but never got off the inside. He had plenty of running room turning

for home and may have even but a head in front of leader Moreno (Ghostzapper) in

the stretch.

But he could not go on and Orb wound up third, beaten less than a length.

Considering the lack of a prep race and racing in tight quarters on the worst

part of the track, it was a big effort.

After the Travers, McGaughey sent him right back to Fair Hill where he has

trained well for this. At this point, you would think that the Gold Cup but will

be his means to the end as he finishes his season in the Breeders' Cup Classic

(G1). But what if it isn't? What if McGaughey is not going to Santa Anita, as he

doesn't want to deal with a hard dirt track at a time of the year where it's not

unusual for the temperature to be at least in the 90s?

Saturday's race is the JOCKEY CLUB Gold Cup! And who owns Orb? None other

than Stuart Janney III and Ogden Mills Phipps, current Vice Chairman and

Chairman of the JOCKEY CLUB. Is it possible that Saturday in New York on their

home track is the real goal for Orb and not the Classic?

If I believed that Orb was 100 percent sound, I would not be making the

argument. And, there is nothing to indicate that he is not 100 percent sound

other than McGaughey shipping him to Fair Hill. But he has had a long year, with

hardly any break over the winter, and McGaughey has done a masterful job keeping

him together. Given the choice of which race to have him cranked up for, I say

it's the Gold Cup and not the Breeders' Cup.

In 1988, McGaughey had Easy Goer for Phipps' father, Ogden Phipps. He easily

won the Jockey Club Gold Cup than went to Gulfstream Park for the Classic where

he was beaten by Sunday Silence. Easy Goer definitely had soundness problems but

seemed to thrive on racing so I don't see any parallels between he and Orb. And

it was South Florida where they stable every winter, not a cross-country trip.

One negative example of a horse that was pointed for a race with the same

logic as Orb was the immortal Damascus for the Woodward Stakes at Belmont in

1968. The champion three-year-old and Horse of the Year in 1967 and winner of

the Woodward that year over fellow immortals Dr. Fager and Buckpasser, he was

heavily favored the win it again the next year.

Before there was a Breeders' Cup Classic, the Woodward was the major

weight-for-age race at the end of the year and it's long list of winner's is a

who's who of American racing. Damascus was owned and bred by Mrs. Edith

Bancroft, whose father was William Woodward, Sr., the chairman of the Jockey

Club from 1930 to 1950. He died in 1953 and the Woodward Stakes was run for the

first time in his honor in 1954.

So Damascus was destined to win the Woodward as he did in 1967 and looked

like he would do it again. With arch rival Dr. Fager staying in his barn at

Belmont and not entered, his connections were so confident the day of the race

that they decided to scratch Damascus' rabbit, Hedever. The public was just as

confident as Damascus was sent off at odds of 1-10.

But a funny thing happened on the way to destiny. The small field and lack of

a rabbit insured a slow pace and Damascus wound up racing up near the lead next

to Mr. Right. Mr. Right was 20-1 in the betting but he had upset the Santa Anita

Handicap earlier that year. The two of them dueled through modest fractions and

when the running got serious in the stretch, Damascus, ridden by Braulio Baeza,

could not get by him. Instead of his customary late rush from behind, he could

not match strides and assert his dominance and Damascus was shockingly beaten in

a race that he was destined to win.

In a further historical footnote, Mr. Right was ridden by Heliodoro Gustines,

who would come back to win Woodward twice in 1974 and '75 aboard the mighty

Forego. Another note was that Mr. Right was a registered New York-bred. The

program was in its infancy and in the year that he was foaled, 1963, there were

only 123 foals registered. We've seen many New York-breds win at the highest

level of graded stakes company lately, but not in 1968.

You can go along with my angle with Orb or you can throw Mr. Right in my

face. Either way, I can't wait for Saturday's Gold Cup at Belmont to see if I'm

right.