Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

APRIL 2, 2010

by Dick Powell

The most valuable horse race ever run was conducted Saturday evening in Dubai

at Meydan Racecourse and the $10 million Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) more than

lived up to its billing. Fourteen evenly-matched horses loaded into the gate on

a hot, sultry night and indelible memories were instantly created with a

thrilling, three-horse photo finish and the top 10 horses finishing within 3 1/2

lengths of each other. It looked wide open going in and the result confirmed it.

I make the morning line for Dubai racing and unlike some of the other races

on the card, I only made three of the 14 horses extreme longshots. A case could

be made for the other 11 and the betting reflected it. Goodwood S. (G1) winner

Gitano Hernando (GB) (Hernando [Fr]) was at even money for the early part of the

betting in the international pool but eventually drifted upward, leaving Gio

Ponti (Tale of the Cat) as the slight post-time favorite at 3-1.

One handicapping factor that was apparent last year and true again this year

was the success of horses that competed in the Dubai International Racing

Carnival on the Dubai World Cup card. The lead prep race for the World Cup is

the final round of the Al Maktoum Challenge (UAE-G2) three weeks earlier at the

same 10-furlong distance.

This year's Al Maktoum Challenge final round was won by Japanese filly Red

Desire (Manhattan Cafe) with a spectacular rally in the stretch. Behind her that

day in close quarters was GLORIA DE CAMPEAO (Brz) (Impression), Mr. Brock (Fort

Wood), Allybar (King's Best) and Lizard's Desire (Lizard Island). Anytime you

have a blanket finish in a race, you have to give consideration to any of the

horses next time out and Allybar and Lizard's Desire had major excuses during

its running.

This year's World Cup was basically a battle between the horses coming out of

the Carnival and the international shippers. The Carnival horses, with at least

one race under the lights over the track, were acclimated to the pre-race

regimen and had a decided advantage over their seemingly higher-class rivals. If

you are an old-school handicapper that believes a race or two over the track is

a decided edge, you probably had a big day last Saturday.

At the start, young jockey Tiago Pereira sent Gloria de Campeao right to the

front as expected but unlike in the Al Maktoum Challenge, the pace he was

allowed to set was dawdling. He was tracked in the early running by Allybar, Mr.

Brock on the far outside, Mastery (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]) and Amor de Pobre

(Stuka). Lizard's Desire was farther back then normal and Red Desire was in the

three path behind them.

Gitano Hernando was in the third flight while down on the rail; an impossible

position with a slow pace. Gio Ponti was far back early and then encountered

rough going in the stretch. Vision D'Etat (Chichicastenango), who had to pass a

vet examine to start in the race and was dead on the board, never threatened at

any point of the race. At least you were well informed by the Dubai racing

authorities about his situation the day before and day of the race.

Turning for home, Gloria de Campeao spurted forward and opened up a clear

lead with about a furlong to go. Most of the closers were having trouble making

up any ground since they were forced to run with the brakes on for the first

mile. Ahmad Ajtebi had Allybar in a drive and just as he began to close the gap,

Lizard's Desire burst out of the pack with Kevin Shea. Those two closed

furiously on Gloria de Campeao with Gio Ponti making a determined run on the

outside.

Saving ground every step of the way, Gloria de Campeao still had the lead

with 50 meters to go with his two rivals making up ground with every stride. All

three riders, having raced extensively at the new Meydan racecourse throughout

the Carnival, knew exactly where the wire was and hit it in unison. At first

glance, it looked like Gloria de Campeao held on but Ajtebi, who was in the

middle, turned to Shea on his outside and indicated that he won causing Shea to

prematurely celebrate.

Wisely, Pereira showed no emotions and when the photo finish was finally

revealed, Gloria de Campeao was the winner by a short nose over Lizard's Desire

with Allybar a short head back in third. The photo finish picture was the most

expensive ever taken in horse racing history as it was worth $6 million to the

winner and $2 million to the runner-up.

Did I have the winner? No. Was the result chaotic or random? Absolutely not!

I had Allybar at 12-1 with Gloria de Campeao and Lizard's Desire at 20-1. All

three had started multiple times over the Tapeta, with Lizard's Desire having

three prep races going two turns over it. Most horses would not be able to run

their best after three hard races in six weeks, but horses that race over Tapeta

come out of it better than they go into it and all three finishers had the

advantage of not only being acclimated to it but their trainers were able to

take advantage of the kind surface and put even more training into them.

As for the rest of the Dubai World Cup undercard, if you can call $16 million

for six races an undercard, Hong Kong shipper JOY AND FUN (Cullen) won the Al

Quoz Sprint (UAE-G3) down the turf straightaway with a final rush over Fravashi

(Falbrav [Ire]) and California speedball California Flag (Avenue of Flags).

In the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2), Godolphin's newest trainer, Mahmoud al

Zarooni, won with his first career starter when CALMING INFLUENCE (King's Best)

opened up a big lead with Ajtebi and held on over Green Coast (Green Desert) and

Skysurfers (E Dubai). The U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) went to MUSIR (Redoute's

Choice), who was angled to the inside by Christophe Soumillon and passed his

stablemate Raihana (Elusive Quality) and Godolphin's Mendip (Harlan's Holiday)

to win going away. It was a one-two sweep for trainer Mike de Kock, but I loved

the way Mendip ran in only his fourth start and considering he was beaten by two

Southern Hemisphere horses that are at least six months older, I hope Godolphin

considers him for the American classics.

In the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1), it looked like America's stranglehold

on the race might end as it only attracted one entrant from the United States,

but KINSALE KING (Yankee Victor) carried the colors to victory under Garrett

Gomez over Singapore shipper Rocket Man (Viscount).

The first of the $5 million turf races was the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) at 1

1/8 miles around one turn and it was a very roughly run race. What made the

running of the Duty Free so odd was that the top three finishers were in a line,

on the rail, with nowhere to go for most of the race.

Tam Lin (Selkirk) and Take the Points (Even the Score) set the pace and the

rest of the field was tightly bunched. Down on the rail, occupying little

attention, was AL SHEMALI (Medicean) and jockey Royston Ffrench. He stayed glued

to the rail and a couple of times it looked like he came over on Imbongi

(Russian Revival) as Soumillon had to turn his mount's head to avoid clipping

heels. Behind them was Bankable (Medicean), who also had nowhere to go while

trapped down inside.

When the field hit the homestretch and the leaders began to tire, Ffrench

maneuvered Al Shemali out into the clear and suddenly he had the lead all to

himself. Track announcer Terry Spargo had the right tone of incredulousness as

the 142-1 longshot looked like he was going to do the impossible. Soumillon

finally got Imbongi untracked but he was quickly passed by Bankable and neither

was able to threaten the most improbable of winners. If you want to talk about

chaos and a random result, this was it -- not the World Cup.

In the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1), American hopeful Presious Passion

(Royal Anthem) looked like he could have any length lead he wanted against a

seemingly paceless group, but Soumillon decided to chase him aboard Golden Sword

(High Chaparral [Ire]). Elvis Trujillo was only able to open up about a

four-length lead and gave it up willingly with about three furlongs to go.

Before the race, trainer John Gosden made a point to talk about DAR RE MI's

(GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) chances and how fillies usually do better in the fall

than in the spring. He said he was just hoping to get a good run out of her. In

the stretch, Dar Re Mi was hitting all the right notes under young superstar

rider William Buick and stormed to the lead. Spanish Moon (El Prado [Ire]) was

running his usual big money race and Japanese invader Buena Vista (Special Week)

was getting untangled out of traffic to put in one final run.

Buick was smart enough to make his move early and the separation that he

attained was enough to hold off Buena Vista by three-quarters of a length with

Spanish Moon another head back in third. What was especially frustrating for me

here was that I loaded up on runner-up Buena Vista, while Dar Re Mi was my

choice in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf (G1).