Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 7, 2006

by Dick Powell

Del Mar and Saratoga may still be a few weeks away, but you would never have

known it this past weekend. With the 4th of July on a Tuesday, we were treated

to a four-day weekend with major stakes action every day throughout the country.

Add some guaranteed pools and carryovers, and let the fireworks begin.

California-breds have had a good year and it continued in the A Gleam

Invitational H. (G2) at Hollywood Park on Saturday where they swept three

of the top four spots. Jerry Hollendorfer shipped SOMETHINABOUTLAURA (Dance

Floor) down from Bay Meadows and the speedy filly was able to sit off

blazing-fast fractions to get up by a nose after a long stretch duel with

Maryfield (Elusive Quality). She covered the seven furlongs in 1:20.88.

Maryfield spotted the winner three pounds and was game as could be. Neither

deserved to lose.

Later on the card, seven fillies were willing to take on DANCE IN THE MOOD

(Jpn) (Sunday Silence) in the CashCall Invitational S. (G3) going a mile on the

turf. The Japanese mare won a Group 1 event two races back and much of her

$4.4 million in career earnings came against males.

In the CashCall, she drew the far outside post and did not break very

alertly. Victor Espinoza was forced to take her back to sixth going into the

first turn and he kept her a few paths out in an effort to get her to relax.

Down the backside, the lukewarm 26-10 favorite stayed on the outside and she

pulled Espinoza up into contention with three furlongs to run.

She was running farther out than anyone, but it didn't matter as she turned

for home four wide with all the momentum. Hollywood has a long stretch, but she

was striding beautifully and Espinoza kept her to task while drawing away to a

1 3/4-length victory over Sweet Talker (Stormin Fever). Luas Line

(Ire) (Danehill) rallied nicely for third after running only a week and a half

ago at

Royal Ascot.

Finally on Saturday, the Landaluce S. was run for juvenile

fillies going six furlongs on the main track. PINATA (Vision and Verse), a

recent private purchase off a sharp first-out maiden score at Pimlico, provided immediate returns to Graph Racing Stable when she rallied from far

back to get up by a neck over Holly Torque Tango (Exciting Story).

Right after the finish line, Pinata stumbled badly enough to unseat Martin

Pedroza and was vanned off.

Turf to dirt is a powerful angle. In her last start, the Gamely Breeders' Cup

H. (G1), HOLLYWOOD STORY (Wild Rush) ran behind a very slow pace then flew

home with the rest of the field, covering her last three furlongs in :34 2/5.

In Sunday's Vanity Invitational H. (G1), she trailed most of the field

early and then made a strong middle move around the final turn. She caught up

with the early pacesetter, Healthy Addiction (Boston Harbor), and gutted out a

half-length win.

Already a Grade 1 stakes winner over the track, Hollywood Story had been

running evenly in most of her previous races, but it looks like her turf effort

last out got her on her toes and she finished full of run.

Forget the alleged "Dubai" curse. Many still feel, despite evidence to the

contrary, that shipping to Dubai takes too much out of a horse and sets them

back for too long. This year, we have seen many Dubai competitors come back and

run strong, and you can add THE TIN MAN (Affirmed) to the list.

Second in the Dubai Duty Free (G1) last out, the eight-year-old gelding went off as the

even-money favorite in the American Invitational H. (G2) going nine

furlongs on the turf and promptly went gate to wire for Richard Mandella and

Victor Espinoza, who was brilliant in rationing out his mount's speed to great

advantage.

Hollywood Park created the American Invitational Oaks (G1) a few years ago for

three-year-old fillies

on the turf. The race filled a void in the stakes calendar and proved to be an immediate

success. However, this year's running only attracted a field of eight and if it

weren't for the fillies that had recently shipped in from overseas, this year's

renewal would have been a disaster.

The betting public made Asahi Rising (Jpn) (Royal Touch) the favorite off some placings in Japanese classics for sophomore fillies. Unfortunately for her, she

drew the rail and figured to get shuffled back if she didn't get away quickly.

She didn't and Attima (GB) (Zafonic) went to the front and set a modest pace of

:47.81

and 1:12.11 for six furlongs.

Garrett Gomez had New York shipper WAIT A WHILE (Maria's Mon) in a chasing position

and kept her clear behind the slow pace. Despite being wide on the far turn and

getting bumped at the top of the stretch, Wait a While exploded in the lane and

won with authority by 4 1/2 lengths over Asahi Rising.

For trainer Todd Pletcher, who is winning at an astounding 29 percent clip this year

and 39 percent with Gomez, it was another notch on his gun. But this one was extra

special coming in a California Grade 1, proving that just like his mentor,

Wayne Lukas, no big money race is safe regardless of where it's run.

The next race up on Sunday was the Triple Bend H. (G1), a seven furlong

sprint for older horses on the main track. In the Los Angeles H. (G3) last

out, SIREN LURE (Joyeux Danseur) rallied from far back to get up in time. In the

Triple Bend, he did the same thing and won going away by 1 1/2 lengths, paying a generous $8.60 to win.

After taking a day off from stakes action on Monday, Hollywood ran the

Hollywood Juvenile (G3) on Tuesday for juveniles going six furlongs on the main

track. Exploit was a disappointment at stud and was eventually

shipped overseas. Knowing that, when one of his offspring sells for $1.2 million

at a two-year-old in-training sale, you have to sit up and take notice.

E Z WARRIOR (Exploit) was purchased this March at the Barretts Sale by Zayat Stables

and he promptly showed some promise when he broke his maiden by a clear margin

going five furlongs in a fast time for Bob Baffert. After a bullet workout a week

ago, Baffert wheeled him right back 16 days after his debut and he won the

Juvenile in a game effort from post 1, overcoming all sorts of

trouble. Usually, this early in the season, you get a runaway winner that still

has questions to answer, but E Z Warrior answered many on Tuesday. With two

races closely spaced, I would expect Baffert to wait for the end of the Del Mar

meet to run him next.

Churchill Downs' Spring/Summer meet is winding down and they grouped a bunch

of stakes over the Holiday Weekend, highlighted by Saturday's Firecracker

Breeders' Cup H. (G2) for older horses going a mile on the turf. MIESQUE'S APPROVAL (Miesque's

Son) has found new life since turning into a one-dimensional closer for new

trainer Marty Wolfson, and his late rally was more than enough to get up in time

to win going away as the odds-on favorite.

At Arlington Park, the Arlington Classic Stakes (G3) was held Saturday for

three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. On a course listed as "good,"

Robby Albarado put KINGSHIP (King Cugat) on the lead and the colt never looked back as he held

on by a desperate nose.

On Sunday, the Stars and Stripes Breeders' Cup H. (G3) was run over its

customary 1 1/2-mile distance and MAJOR RHYTHM (Rhythm) rallied out in the

middle of the track for Earlie Fires to win a three-horse photo by a head at

35-1 odds.

At Monmouth Park on Saturday, the immensely talented HENNY HUGHES (Hennessy)

returned to the races and left no doubt that he will be a force to be reckoned

with in one-turn races. He stalked the early pace of :22.23 and a half in :44.71

and then threw in a :23.55 final quarter, winning the Jersey Shore Breeders' Cup

S. (G3) by 10 in 1:08.26. He earned a solid BRIS Speed rating of 110 and should be

even tougher next time out.

Friday night at Prairie Meadows saw SIPHON CITY (Siphon [Brz]) gun to the front

under Elvis Trujillo and win the Cornhusker Breeders' Cup H. (G2) gate to wire at

23-1 odds. The Florida shipper from Danny Hurtak ran nine furlongs on the

main track in a very fast 1:47.76.

Belmont Park ran back-to-back Grade 1 stakes on Saturday. The Mother Goose

S. (G1), for three-year-old fillies going nine furlongs on the main track, is the second

leg of the Triple Tiara, and BUSHFIRE (Louis Quatorze),

who captured the opening stage in the Acorn S. (G1) last out, ding-donged with Teammate (A.P. Indy)

before taking a clear lead in the stretch and holding off a late rally by the

lightly-raced Pine Island (Arch).

Trained by Eddie Kenneally and ridden by Edgar Prado, Bushfire still runs up near

the lead but is using less energy doing it.

Next up was the historic Suburban H. (G1) for older horses going ten

furlongs on the main track. The public made the Argentinian-bred INVASOR (Candy

Stripes) the heavy favorite off his win in the Pimlico Special H. (G1) in his North American debut.

In a race that no one wanted the early lead, Noble Causeway (Giant's Causeway)

wound up on it with Wild Desert (Wild Rush) taken back to fourth. Invasor and

new rider Fernando Jara pressed a pace that got faster each quarter down the

backside, and it looked like he could take the lead any time he wanted.

At the top of the stretch, Jara pushed the button and Invasor drew off to a

handy 4 1/4-length win, going 10 furlongs in 2:01.23. Wild Desert was second

and Andromeda's Hero (Fusaichi Pegasus) ran closer to the pace and got third.

Invasor is now seven for eight with his only loss coming in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G1) when

he was crushed by Discreet Cat (Forestry). He earned a terrific BRIS speed

rating of 118 in the Suburban and is another Maktoum brother-owned horse having a

terrific year.

Sunday saw DESIRE TO EXCEL (Mt. Livermore) win the Astoria S. by five

lengths at 24-1 odds. A narrow winner of her career debut at Aqueduct for Kelly

Breen, who is underrated with his youngsters, the two-year-old filly was able to blow by odds-on

favorite Octave (Unbridled's Song), who held on for second after setting the

early pace.

In the Poker H. (G3), REBEL REBEL (Ire) (Revoque) rallied from far back to

win going away over Remarkable News (Ven) (Chayim) in the good time of 1:33.34 on the

Widener Turf Course.

On Monday, New York-bred BEHAVING BADLY (Pioneering) won another graded

stakes when she was a game winner of the Genuine Risk Breeders' Cup H. (G2) by a

half-length. She joins FUNNY CIDE (Distorted Humor), winner of the Dominion Day

H. (Can-G3) at Woodbine, as New York-bred stakes winners from the weekend.

Tuesday had the Tremont S. being run for juveniles going 5 1/2

furlongs on a very slow main track at Belmont. OUT OF GWEDDA (Out of Place)

stumbled badly three strides into the race, almost unseating Johnny Velazquez, and still won

easily in a very remarkable performance. His final time was 1:06.66 was

bested by another Pletcher trainee two races later when SOARING BY (Deputy

Minister) won his career debut by five lengths in 1:04.93.

The Dwyer S. (G2) was held later on the card and should have featured the

much-anticipated return to American racing for Discreet Cat. Unfortunately, he

had a cough interrupt his training, forcing his connections to bypass both this

race and the upcoming Travers S. (G1). It still attracted a

very competitive field of six.

Despite a racetrack that yielded slow running times for most of the day, the

betting public made Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory) the 9-5 favorite. Pletcher

had won four straight races earlier on the card, but it didn't help Keyed Entry

when he broke slow, rushed up into contention from post 1, and then was rank

for Velazquez, who could not get him to settle.

Da Stoops (Distorted Humor) ran well against Cal-breds last time out going

nine furlongs, but he would need a speed-favoring track to get the distance. He

pressed the pace while three wide and then began to fade.

Edgar Prado had STRONG CONTENDER (Maria's Mon) in a good stalking position

while saving ground on the rail. A giant hole opened on the turn and Prado took

full advantage, sending him through with three furlongs to run. I'm sure Prado

would have loved to wait longer, but his horse did it willingly and when the

speed horses backed up he was alone on an easy lead through the stretch.

It took Strong Contender a painful :33.40 to run his last five-sixteenths of

a mile, but he was drawing away to a convincing 7 3/4-length win. He's a big

horse with a wide front end and his stride through the lane was very long. He's

only been out five times now for John Ward, and it will be interesting to see

where he shows up next with Ward training two other promising sophomore colts,

the unbeaten MINISTER'S BID (Deputy Minister) and stakes-placed DR. PLEASURE

(Thunder Gulch).