Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 14, 2006

by Dick Powell

Races are often won at the starting gate; even Grade 1s going 10 furlongs.

In Saturday's Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), odds-on favorite LAVA MAN (Slew City

Slew) broke poorly from post 1 when he stumbled and almost went to his knees at the start. It

might have won him the race.

Saturday's track at Hollywood Park did not seem to be too kind toward inside

speed. And going into the race, from post 1, Lava Man certainly looked like

the inside speed. Winner of this race last year by almost nine lengths, Lava Man

appeared to have a major pace edge over his four rivals, but a few strides out of

the gate that advantage was gone.

It might not have been as bad as War Emblem in the Belmont

S. (G1), but Lava Man had his nose about a foot off the ground a few strides

out of the gate. Corey Nakatani got him righted, but he was third going into the

first turn instead of being on the lead. Nakatani got him to settle beautifully

and steered him to the outside as they headed down the backstretch.

Magnum (Arg) (El Compinche) wound up on the lead and Pat Valenzuela was able to

slow the pace down to a :48.65 first half. Victor Espinoza moved Ace Blue (Brz) (Coax

Me Clyde) up to press the slowish pace and Nakatani had Lava Man in a perfect

spot in third.

The pace quickened a bit with a :23.94 third quarter and the three headed into

the far turn. Valenzuela was trying to keep Magnum off the rail and none of his

rivals would take the bait and try to go to the inside. Nakatani had Lava Man in

a drive on the outside with Ace Blue even farther out. At the top of the stretch, it looked like Ace Blue was dropping out of it but he began to re-rally out in

the middle of the track.

Lava Man was in a furious drive for the last quarter mile with a determined

Magnum on the inside and Ace Blue on the outside. Super Frolic (Pine Bluff) was

looming in behind those three, and it was anyone's race in the final furlong.

As Magnum began to tire, he drifted to the deeper part of the track on the

inside and lost his momentum. But Ace Blue was on the best part of the track and

looked like he might get by Lava Man. They battled to the wire and Lava Man had

his head down, winning the tightest of photos by less than a nose. Super Frolic

was less than a length behind for all the money in third and Magnum weakened to

be fourth.

With a perfect start, there's no reason that Lava Man couldn't have taken the

lead and raced off the rail. But the poor start forced the issue and he wound up

on the outside for most of the 10 furlongs, which turned out to be a blessing.

Having won the Santa Anita H. (G1) on dirt in March, the Charlie Whittingham

Memorial H. (G1) on turf last out in June and now the Hollywood Gold

Cup (G1) in July, you could argue that Lava Man has earned at least an Eclipse

Award in the older horse category already this year. I can't see anyone

accomplishing more.

The problem that Doug O'Neill has is mapping out a plan to get him to the

Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). His race last Saturday was a gut-wrenching effort

and he'll need some time to recover. Normally we might see him in the Pacific

Classic (G1) at Del Mar, but in today's world of trainers wanting lots of time

between races, it's likely he'll miss the race.

The advantage that O'Neill has, though, is he can use a turf race as a prep

for the Classic. Lava Man has shown he's equally adept on

either surface and, with three Grade 1 wins to his credit this year and one

last year, he's on the verge of joining the great geldings of recent

times.

Magnum had a difficult trip even though the comment line will not show it. He

was coming off a monster win at Lone Star and was bet down to 2-1 as the strong

second choice. With Lava Man breaking poorly, he wound up on the lead, did not

have a target to race behind, and tired in the stretch on the deepest part of

the track. This was his second start off a bit of a layoff and he could be tough

at Del Mar next time out.

Super Frolic just can't seem to catch a break. His Breeders' Cup Classic last

year at Belmont was sensational and with any luck could have pulled off the

shocker. He also raced on the worst part of the track last Saturday but still

finished willingly. When he's good, he's real good.

Ace Blue won the Mervyn Leroy H. (G2) last year at Hollywood, but his

recent form had been quite dull. Jerry Hollendorfer modified his blinkers and he

responded with a super effort. In a field of five, I wouldn't have given him a

chance at the top of the stretch to be in the top three, yet he almost won

the race were it not for the courageous determination of Lava Man.

ARSON SQUAD (Brahms) showed he will be a second-half sophomore this year when

he rallied from just off the pace to win the Swaps Breeders' Cup S. (G2) over Point

Determined (Point Given) by a length. Third behind Point Determined and A. P.

Warrior (A.P. Indy) in the Affirmed H. (G3) last out in his two-turn

debut, the lightly-raced gelding was a fast winner of the Swaps, covering the 1

1/8 miles in 1:48.45.

*****

There are many ways to skin a cat. You can spend millions of dollars at

auction, purchasing yearlings and two-year-olds in training. Or you can breed

them yourself. Michael Tabor, closely affiliated with the Coolmore operation, is good at both.

Coolmore spent a world-record $16 million on The Green Monkey (Forestry) this

year, but the best juvenile colt with a Coolmore connection right now is Tabor's CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch), who

rallied from far back and up the rail to win the Bashford Manor S. (G3)

going away at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Tabor owned Thunder Gulch during his terrific three-year-old campaign when he won the 1995 Florida Derby

(G1), Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont S. (G1) and Travers S. (G1), and Thunder

Gulch is now a vastly underrated sire of two-turn horses.

Circular Quay's dam, Circle of Life (Belong to Me), won the Spinaway S. (G1) for

Tabor at Saratoga going seven furlongs, upsetting

eventual champion Surfside. Circular Quay is her second foal and he was an

impressive maiden winner at Churchill a month ago when he looped the field to win going away in fast time. In the Bashford Manor, instead of rallying down the

middle of the track, Rafael Bejarano stayed on the rail and won easily in

1:09.96. With two wins over the track and his sire being a Kentucky Derby

winner, it's hard not to be looking ahead to next year's first Saturday in May

for one of the most powerful stables in the world.

Earlier on the card, Tabor almost had another juvenile stakes winner

when Chagall (Successful Appeal), whom he co-owns with his Coolmore partners, opened up a clear lead with a furlong to run in

the Debutante S. (G3) for juvenile fillies. But another filly by the same

sire, RICHWOMAN (Successful Appeal), wore her down in the deep stretch to win in

a gutsy effort.