Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 27, 2010

by Dick Powell

The Travers S. (G1) will be run for the 141st time this Saturday at Saratoga,

and it should be run under glorious, sunny conditions. Divisional leader LOOKIN

AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is not here which has resulted in an evenly-matched

field of 11 contenders. Let's look at them from the rail out.

On the inside is MINER'S RESERVE (Mineshaft), runner-up in the Jim Dandy S. (G2). He has brilliant cruising speed but I was disappointed that he was

not able to relax in the Jim Dandy. Even though he held on for second, the

suspicion is that a speed-favoring track where nobody was able to rally from off

the pace aided his effort. He picks up eight pounds off that effort and will

have to be used early from post 1. I think he has a world of talent but until he

stops fighting his rider, 10 furlongs is out of the question.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 106

TRAPPE SHOT (Tapit) was on the fence between a start in the Travers or the

King's Bishop S. (G1) going seven furlongs on the undercard. Kiaran McLaughlin

and owner Nick Brady decided to go all in with the Travers. He's bred to go long

and his win at Monmouth in the Long Branch S. was excellent. In

the Haskell (G1), he rallied late to pass the tiring frontrunners but could not

threaten Lookin at Lucky. He draws well and gets Alan Garcia and will pick up

eight pounds.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 105

If you want to know if ADMIRAL ALEX (Afleet Alex) has a shot in the Travers

off a career-debut maiden win, just ask his 79 year old trainer, Leon Blusiewicz.

"Blue" is walking and talking like he's already won the race and how can you

blame him. His maiden win going nine furlongs was excellent and he looks like he

can run all day. Long on talent, he's short on experience but it could be to his

advantage going 10 furlongs since he looks like he'll have no trouble getting

it while some of his more experienced rivals might not ever get it.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 91

FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even) is a big horse that does his best racing when

he can run freely and use his huge stride to its best advantage. He almost stole

the Preakness S. (G1), then came back and almost did it again in the Belmont

(G1). In the Haskell, he was under constant pressure through the last half-mile

and held on for third. He adds blinkers today, draws well and might even relax a

bit if he gets a first-over trip outside of Miner's Reserve. Ramon Dominguez

fits him perfectly and he picks up eight pounds.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 103

A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever) has won his last two starts going two turns and

has emerged as the hot horse for the second half of the year. His win at

Delaware Park over Miner's Reserve was brilliant and he came back to do it again

in the Jim Dandy in fast time. It took him four sprint starts to break his

maiden last year but he is a fast horse that has gotten better as the races have

gotten longer. In his two-turn debut, he was a terrific second in the Louisiana

Derby (G2) while beating Belmont winner DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor), so he has

shown that he can run with the big boys and his now better than ever. Johnny

Velazquez returns in the irons and it's now apparent why he went to Delaware

Park on his day off to ride an allowance race. He picks up eleven pounds off his

Jim Dandy race.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 109

ICE BOX (Pulpit) rallied furiously to get second in the Kentucky Derby (G1)

but hasn't shown much since. He was the beaten favorite in the Belmont S.

and then was flat in the Haskell. But trainer Nick Zito is always dangerous

bringing a horse back off a poor effort and he might get enough pace to set up

his late kick. Julien Leparoux rides and he picks up six pounds.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 102

AFLEET EXPRESS (Afleet Alex) was an impressive winner of the Pegasus S.

(G3) in his two-turn debut at Monmouth Park, then showed up here for the Jim

Dandy instead of the Haskell. He only ran in spots as he was bumped at the start

and was wide for most of the trip. Still, he was rallying nicely in the stretch

against a speed bias and has trained well since then for Jimmy Jerkens. Leading

rider Javier Castellano gets back aboard and Jerkens would like nothing better

than to beat A Little Warm, who is owned by Edward "Ned" Evans who fired him as

the trainer of Quality Road (Elusive Quality) last year.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 105

FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) looked great winning the Dwyer S. (G2) by six

lengths over subsequent Belmont winner Drosselmeyer. He was an erratic second in

the Belmont and then was a rough-trip fifth in the Jim Dandy. Jose Lezcano gets

off Ice Box to stay with this one and he seems to do his best when outside of

horses, which should be no problem while breaking from post 8. He picks up

five pounds off his Jim Dandy race, but has already run well going 12 furlongs

with 126 pounds in the Belmont.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 99

FRIEND OR FOE (Friends Lake) won his first three starts before stepping up in

his graded debut when he was an excellent fourth while wide in the Jim Dandy. He

gives the impression that there is still an upside as he makes his fifth career

start in the Travers. He has tactical speed and showed in the Jim Dandy that he

can still be running late. His biggest negative on Saturday is that he is

picking up 11 pounds off his last race but can contend with

another step of improvement.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 101

AFLEET AGAIN (Afleet Alex) was a good second in the Pegasus behind Afleet

Express but then showed little in the Haskell. He's a Grade 3 winner

going a mile and has the pedigree -- top and bottom -- to get 10 furlongs on

dirt. Cornelio Velasquez picks up the mount, and he adds eight pounds.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 103

Finally, breaking from post 11 is this year's Derby winner SUPER SAVER

(Maria's Mon). Yes, a lot of things went his way in the Derby but his Arkansas

Derby (G1) second was excellent. He fell apart in the Preakness and when he

returned off the layoff in the Haskell, he was very rank for Calvin Borel, who was

forced to go up three wide instead of dropping in behind the speed. He gave the

impression that he needed the race and if he is able to relax for Borel, he

could work out a good trip from the outside post.

Best BRIS Speed Rating going two turns: 105

I liked Afleet Express in the Jim Dandy and while disappointed in the result,

it showed to me that he will be super tough in the Travers. He finishes his race

with energy but has more than enough speed to get a good trip. I hope Castellano

uses that speed not to go to the front, but to set up shop on the inside behind

it. He ran on strongly in the Jim Dandy even when it looked like he was out of

it at the top of the stretch and should get a better set-up on Saturday. With 10

other horses, it will cost $90 to wheel Afleet Express with all/all. Normally, I

would key him underneath in exactas but I can't narrow it down to a manageable

number so the only other bet I will make is a win/place bet on him.

***

In the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar on Saturday, I like the defending

champion, RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid), to win it again. He went to Dubai this

year for the World Cup (UAE-G1) and ran well behind a slow pace. Then, he was a

good third in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) going 10 furlongs. Usually, I don't like

horses coming off 1 1/2-mile races going shorter, but his third in the Cougar II

H. (G3) was four weeks ago and should have him in great shape. Since then,

Bob Baffert has been drilling him hard for speed in the morning, so I am looking

for a big effort from him on Saturday against an evenly-matched field.