Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

SEPTEMBER 7, 2007

by Dick Powell

Saratoga and Del Mar finished their spectacular 2007 race meets with juvenile

stakes for both sexes on the main track that were everything one could hope for.

On Sunday at Saratoga, the Spinaway S. (G1) was run for the 116th time. I

thought the betting public was crazy for over-betting IRISH SMOKE (Smoke Glacken)

down to 5-4 favoritism but she rewarded them with a late rally to win going away

by 3 1/4 lengths over second choice A to the Croft (Menifee).

Bob Baffert sent out Adirondack S. (G2) winner More Happy (Vindication) and

as expected she took the lead down the backside. With a first quarter in :22.02

and a half in :44.82, any chances of her carrying her speed were gone, and it

was just a matter of time before she was passed. She turned for home with a

five-length lead but quickly began to shorten stride as the field headed back

into the wind. None of the early runners that ran near the pace were around at

the finish and the closers were coming hard.

Julien Leparoux has a knack for timing his move just right, and this time he

won because he made his move sooner than his rivals. He swung the favorite off

the rail and went up after More Happy three wide. When More Happy offered no

resistance, Irish Smoke cruised to a clear lead while A to the Croft finally

found clear running room and showed good energy in the stretch.

After the race, A to the Croft's trainer Ken McPeek indicated that her next

start will be in the Alcibiades S. (G2) at Keeneland going two turns. Rider Kent

Desormeaux has big expectations for her.

"I think she is begging for more ground," Desormeaux said. "This is not her

niche, and she still competed. It's going to be one of those things when they

add more real estate to these races. You're going to really read about her."

Closing day at Saratoga on Monday was probably the best weather day of the

meet -- sunny, little humidity and a temperature in the mid 70s. The Hopeful S.

(G1) was run for the 103rd time for juveniles going seven furlongs, and only

four horses showed up.

Owner Ahmed Zayat shipped a string to Saratoga earlier in the meet when he

was unhappy how the newly installed Polytrack was performing at Del Mar. The

move looked brilliant when More Happy won the Adirondack and Maimonides

(Vindication) broke his maiden here by more than 11 lengths. But, after the

weekend, maybe Zayat will have to re-think his strategy.

Even with only four horses in the Hopeful, it turned out to be a chess match.

Knowing how fast Maimonides was in his career debut, Johnny Velazquez aboard

Ready's Image (More Than Ready) was not going to let him get loose on an easy

lead. In a short field he knew he was not going to get any help, so Johnny was

going to have to use his mount a lot earlier than he wanted. It turned out to

cost him the race.

Desormeaux sent Maimonides to the front through an easy first quarter

(wind-aided) of :22.60. Velazquez applied pressure aboard Ready's Image and

after they sped the half in :45 flat, it looked like it would be a two-horse

duel to the wire. From the back of the smallish pack, Garrett Gomez was getting

MAJESTIC WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) untracked but trailed the field by at least 10

lengths. One of the most impressive juvenile debut winners at the meet for Bill

Mott, Majestic Warrior certainly has a Saratoga seven-furlong pedigree being out

of Dream Supreme (Seeking the Gold), winner of the Test S. (G1) and Ballerina H.

(G1) here in 2000.

Maimonides was the first to crack, and it looked like Ready's Image would go

on to victory. But Gomez had Majestic Warrior in full stride and even though he

was six lengths behind with a furlong to go, he won going away by 2 1/4 lengths.

His final time was 1:23.04. After the race, Mott indicated that the one-mile

Champagne S. (G1) at Belmont on October 6 would be his next start.

Maimonides will miss at least 30 days of training due to sore shins. The

Saratoga main track has played hard and inconsistent all meet, and the New York

Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association held a meeting last week to address its

members' concerns as it has been a backstretch topic of conversation. Young

horses buck shins all the time but you have to wonder if Maimonides' long-term

health interests might have been better served if he stayed at Del Mar.

Out at Del Mar, huge fields showed up for their two signature juvenile

events. On Monday, the Del Mar Debutante S. (G1) attracted a field of 12

juvenile fillies going seven furlongs on the Polytrack. Spring Awakening (In

Excess [Ire]) was made the tepid 3-1 favorite off a maiden score against Cal-breds

going 5 1/2 furlongs in fast time. She looked like she had the perfect stalking

running style for this event and having Joe Talamo back in the saddle did not

hurt.

I liked two horses -- one won and one did not finish. Guess which one I bet?

Treadmill (E Dubai) drew the far outside post position, but going seven furlongs

made that a lot more palatable. She won a Cal-bred stakes here last out and she

showed her class when second in the Landaluce S. two starts back. A series of

strong workouts heading into the race made it look like all systems were "go."

SET PLAY (Van Nistelrooy) was a good second in the Sorrento S. (G3) last out

and was meeting many of the same. Trainer Peter Miller had a spectacular Del Mar

meet, but he wound up riding Brice Blanc after all three of her previous riders

took mounts elsewhere. When she acted up a bit when being saddled in the

paddock, I went with the aptly named Treadmill who was pulled up.

Despite breaking from post 9, Blanc was able to get Set Play to the inside

down the backstretch. He moved her up four wide around the turn and when the

speed collapsed she only had Comical Vacation (Comic Strip) to pass at the top

of the stretch. Set Play ran on strongly and her main danger came from Spring

Awakening who had a perfect, ground-saving trip but she was no match. Set Play

won it by two lengths over Spring Awakening with Izarra (Distorted Humor)

another half-length back in third. Her final time was 1:26.79. She is the first

Grade 1 stakes winner for her first-crop sire that stands in Kentucky for

$7,500.

On the traditional Wednesday closing, 13 juveniles showed up for the Del Mar

Futurity (G1). It was the final validation of the success of Polytrack here.

According to the San Diego Tribune, only five horses had to be euthanized

due to racing and training on Polytrack this year compared to 14 last year.

Handle and attendance were up and when you watched this year's edition of the

Futurity you had to ask yourself, "What's there not to like?"

When racing needs an exciting race with a big field thundering to the finish

line for advertising purposes, all they have to do is show a replay of the

stretch run of the Del Mar Futurity. It was that good.

Just like in the Debutante, the betting public made a maiden winner the

favorite at the expense of more experienced stakes rivals. Drill Down (El

Corredor) broke its maiden in his second start going six furlongs in fast time.

He earned the best BRIS Speed Rating (95) of the field and he was made the 22-10

favorite. Leading rider Michael Baze returned in the irons for Mike Machowsky.

The Best Pal S. (G2) was run three weeks ago and it only drew four horses.

Despite a slow pace that day, Salute the Sarge (Forest Wildcat) outkicked

GEORGIE BOY (Tribal Rule) to win by a length, and the public felt that the

result would be the same again in the Futurity when they made Salute the Sarge

the second betting choice and Georgie Boy third in the wagering.

Besides an exciting stretch run, the run down the backstretch was not too

bad, either. Four horses were intent on making the lead with Salute the Sarge

sitting in behind them. With a half in :46.65, the field bunched up around the

turn and if you weren't going to go extremely wide, you were going to need some

luck to find some running room.

Salute the Sarge had no such luck as Desormeaux was forced to steady

repeatedly at the top of the stretch with horses all around him. Dixie Chatter

(Dixie Union), Leonides (Richter Scale) and Drill Down were all battling for the

lead with a furlong to go. Salute the Sarge was quickly making up ground once he

found room but the blur from the back of the pack was Georgie Boy and Gomez.

Second last in the run down the backstretch, Gomez made up ground on the

outside around the turn but instead of going widest of all he charged through

traffic with giant strides to catch the leaders. When a hole opened up 100 yards

from the wire, he burst through to win the Futurity by a half-length over Salute

the Sarge in 1:25.34. The re-run of the Best Pal exacta paid a whopping $69.20

(for a $2 wager). There were six horses within two lengths of each other at the

finish in this most exciting renewal of the Futurity. It will be fascinating

when this group gets together again for the Norfolk S. (G2) at Santa Anita since

handicappers will have plenty of time to analyze all the bad trips that horses

encountered here.