Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

OCTOBER 22, 2010

by Dick Powell

The televised debate for the Governor of New York State this week had a

candidate named Jimmy McMillan who is the nominee of the "The Rent is Too Damn

High" party. When he would respond to the moderator's questions, he would

inevitably end his single-issue speech with "...The rent is too damn high."

While watching Mr. McMillan direct every issue back to the rent being too

damn high, it occurred to me that maybe this is just what we need in horse

racing. Instead of analyzing to death all the nuances of the issues that plague

our sport, maybe we need the single-mindedness of Mr. McMillan. Maybe, we need

Mr. McMillan himself to be our leader. Maybe we need Mr. McMillan to head up a

new movement called "The Takeout is Too Damn High!"

The Breeders' Cup is fast approaching and there was a perfect example of how

dominant the European shippers will be on the turf races up at Woodbine last

weekend. There were three Grade 1 stakes races run there and all three were won

by Euro shippers.

In the Nearctic S. (Can-G1) going six furlongs on the turf, SERIOUS ATTITUDE

(Ire) (Mtoto) rallied from dead last to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths under

Garrett Gomez. Winless this year in five starts in Great Britain, she was

dismissed at 23-1 odds.

The trend continued in the E. P. Taylor Stakes (Can-G1) for filly and mares

going 1 1/4 miles when REGGANE (GB) (Red Ransom) employed the same last-to-first

tactics to get up by a length. Ridden by Christophe Soumillon, she went off at

10-1 odds even though her only stakes win came in a listed race. So the betting

public was wisely betting the Euros, but it was still a question of what Euro to

bet on.

Finally, in the Canadian International S. (Can-G1) for older horses going 1

1/2 miles, the betting public had their choice of four Euro shippers. Redwood

(GB) (High Chaparral [Ire]) won the Northern Dancer (Can-G1) last out in his

North American debut and was made the 22-10 favorite. Chinchon (Ire) (Marju) won

the United Nations (G1) two starts back and then went back to France where he

was up the track in the Prix Foy (Fr-G2). Mores Wells (GB) (Sadler's Wells) is a

six-year-old that has only won Group three stakes in his career, and JOSHUA TREE

(Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) won a Group 2 stakes last year as a juvenile and was

winless in two starts this year for the powerful Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien team.

After six furlongs were run in a dawdling 1:18.48, the field was tightly

bunched. Redwood turned for home in heavy traffic and Mores Wells was bumped

around. Joshua Tree found the "good" turf to his liking and he took advantage of

his four-pound weight concession to win by a head. Mores Wells nosed out Redwood

for the place as the Euros swept the board.

You could easily argue that the North American-based turf horses that

competed at Woodbine on Saturday were not our "A" team since very few of them

will show up at the Breeders' Cup. But, you would also have to agree that this

was not the Euros' "A" team either. In fact, you could argue that this was

really the Euros' "C" team since the "A" team doesn't always come to the

Breeders' Cup.

The fact is, the Euros' "B" team is better than our "B" team and it is not a

stretch to recognize that their "A" team is better than our "A" team even with

the home-court advantage at Churchill Downs. You still have to come up with the

right Euro. It is unlikely that they will dominate all the turf races but

depending on who they send, they will be very hard to beat.

FRANKEL (Galileo [Ire]) is the bomb. There is no other way to describe him.

He is now four-for-four in his juvenile career after dominating the Dewhurst S.

(Eng-G1) last Saturday at Newmarket going seven furlongs.

In what was being billed as the "Race of the Century," Frankel showed how

farcical the hype was as there was never really any race. His vanquished rivals

did not put up a fight but what made his performance so memorable was that he

was not at his best either.

Bumped at the start, he trailed the field and ran somewhat sideways with his

head pointing to his left. When called on by Tom Queally, his response was

immediate, but once he took the lead he strode to the wire on his wrong lead.

Frankel didn't get many style points for the race, but his rivals were strewn

about behind him.

His owner/breeder, Juddmonte Farms, have won 16 Group/Grade 1 stakes races

this year and came right back the next race in the Champion Stakes (Eng-G1) with

a hard-fought repeat victory by TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) to cap a memorable

double for Queally and trainer Henry Cecil.

It looks like Frankel will be put away for the winter with the one-mile Two

Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) as his immediate goal. There is some doubt whether he

can be a 1 1/2-mile Derby (Eng-G1) horse but with his pedigree and finishing

kick, who's to say that he can't.

If you have been playing Keeneland this meet, you have seen how much speed

has been carrying on the main track. In the past, speed did well going one turn

but this year speed continues to dominate; even going two turns. This has been

true regardless of the weather as I found out thinking it would change when the

sun came out. For the rest of the meet, it looks like forwardly-placed horses

running on the inside will continue to have an edge.