Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 24, 2010

by Dick Powell

Santa Anita opens its 74th race meet this coming Sunday with a lot riding on

its outcome. The synthetic track has been removed and replaced with dirt, but

Mother Nature is not cooperating as California is getting hit with rainy weather

that borders on biblical proportions.

Training has been interrupted a few times already, but there is no track in

the world -- turf, dirt or synthetic -- that could stand up to what nature is

throwing at it. It is really a shame since Sunday's card is terrific, and

hopefully the races will be run on a safe and fair racing surface.

One thing that sticks out when you examine the past performances of Sunday's

races is how fast the workouts have been in the morning on the dirt. Before the

dirt track was inundated with rain, horses seemed to be getting over it with

ease and as you will see with Sunday's entries, the workouts earlier this month

were very quick.

How Santa Anita plays and how it responds to the wet conditions will be a bit

of a crapshoot. My guess is that the track will play to early speed since that

is what dirt tracks that have been continually sealed usually do. Watch the

early races on the card and see how speed is playing before betting any serious

money.

Andy Harrington's National Turf Clocker Report should be especially helpful,

as he will give you detailed workout information about how the horses are

working at Santa Anita in the morning.

Sunday's card will be highlighted by the traditional opening day feature, the

Malibu S. (G1) for three-year-olds going seven furlongs on the main track. What

always makes the Malibu fascinating is that it usually brings two-turn horses

and sprinters together as they begin their third year of racing.

One horse that bears watching is the Bob Baffert-trained ALCINDOR (Unbridled's

Song). A winner of his career debut by a nose, he came back and beat first-level

allowance foes at Hollywood Park going seven furlongs in very fast time while

earning a 103 BRIS Speed rating. He draws inside, which might be a disadvantage

for this long-striding colt, and if he doesn't make the lead he's going to be

eating a lot of mud. But, he is an immensely talented colt that is finally

starting to pay some dividends after being purchased for $1,150,000 as a

yearling two years ago.

THISKYHASNOLIMIT (Sky Mesa) is one of many horses that trainer Steve Asmussen

now has stabled at Santa Anita. What is intriguing about him is that his best

effort last season was a second in the Indiana Derby (G2) in a sea of slop

earning a career-best BRIS speed rating of 105. He won the Matt Winn S. at

Churchill going seven furlongs, so he has more than enough speed to keep up

early, and the fact that he is bred for wet tracks and has already run big over

one puts him right in the mix.

NOBLE'S PROMISE (Cuvee) is a horse that had an interesting season. He has a

great juvenile season winning the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland and then

ran a close third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and a close second in the

Hollywood Futurity (G1). His races this year did not progress as the distances

grew longer so Ken McPeek went ahead with a plan to take him to Royal Ascot

where he was a terrific fifth in the St James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) going a mile

behind two top milers from trainer Richard Hannon.

Since coming back to the States, he quietly won a stake going six furlongs at

Churchill in very fast time and now has this Grade 1 at seven furlongs all teed

up for him. His sire Cuvee is siring 21 percent winners on wet tracks, and he

himself won the Saratoga Special S. (G2) in a sea of slop. He's probably better

suited to one-turn races and gets Julien Leparoux back in the irons.

TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) looked to be any kind when he romped in the

Del Mar Derby (G2) in very fast time going nine furlongs. Unfortunately, he came

back in the Goodwood S. (G1) on the synthetic next out and he tired late to

finish fourth. He broke his maiden gate to wire going seven furlongs in his

career debut and has terrific cruising speed to stalk the speed while not using

up much energy.

This will be his dirt debut, but Candy Ride (Arg) also sires 21 percent

winners on wet tracks, so it won't be a surprise if he presses the pace down the

backside from post 9. With his speed and outside post position, I don't think he

will be in the position where he will have to eat a lot of mud, so he should be

able to handle the dirt. A six-furlong workout in 1:10 and change last week

indicates he likes it.

Beneath the radar screen all last season was SMILING TIGER (Hold That Tiger),

who won two Grade 1 stakes and both were against older horses. He showed he was

not just a synthetic specialist when he was a close third in the Breeders' Cup

Sprint (G1) in his dirt debut and now he returns at seven furlongs from an

outside post. I like the fact that he is training at Golden Gate over the Tapeta

without any interruptions. Russell Baze is down for the ride, and if he takes to

the expected wet going, he'll be right there. He's a middle-move sprinter,

meaning he runs his best around the turn.

I am looking for Twirling Candy to be the horse to beat in the Malibu. He's

won going nine furlongs but has good speed, so regardless of how the track is

playing, he should get seven furlongs. If Noble's Promise drew outside I would

like him, but from a middle post position and a lot of speed to his outside, I

don't think that he can keep up early. I am playing Twirling Candy to win and

then back him up in exactas with Noble's Promise and Smiling Tiger on top of

him.