Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

FEBRUARY 22, 2008

by Dick Powell

Winning a Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and Horse of the Year honors is a tough

act to follow, but William and Suzanne Warren continued to spend wisely and have

another budding star. After Saint Liam won the Donn H. (G1), Stephen Foster H.

(G1), Woodward S. (G1) as well as the Classic in 2005 for the Warrens, they

purchased DENIS OF CORK (Harlan's Holiday) at auction in 2007 for $250,000 at

the Barretts March juvenile sale.

Brought to the races at Churchill late in November by David Carroll, Denis of

Cork stormed down the middle of the track to win going away with Calvin Borel.

He covered the seven furlongs in 1:22 2/5 and earned a very strong BRIS Speed

rating of 95.

Carroll shipped him to Fair Grounds where he winters each year, and he showed

up in a first-level allowance race a month ago. It was Denis of Cork's first

attempt at two turns and over a very sloppy track that he hated, he was stuck

behind a very slow pace while on the far outside to grind out a head victory. It

wasn't pretty, but it wasn't meant to be pretty. He earned a 90 Speed rating but

answered questions about versatility and gameness.

Carroll skipped the Risen Star S. (G3) run the week before at Fair Grounds

for last Monday's Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park. With a large field going a

mile with the short homestretch, the Southwest was no easy task and the bettors

sent Denis of Cork off at a generous 48-10 odds in the field of 11.

Turf War (Dixie Union) was sent off as the 23-10 favorite off a dead heat-win

in the Delta Jackpot S. (G3) two months ago at Delta Downs and Riley Tucker

(Harlan's Holiday) was next at 34-10 despite a 170-day layoff. Borel stuck with

Turf War, so Robby Albarado picked up the ride on Denis of Cork.

At the start, Julien Leparoux sent Sacred Journey (Unbridled's Song) to the

front and opened up a gigantic lead. With a first quarter in :22.72, the field

was stretched out with gaps between many of the runners. Silver Edition (Silver

Deputy) and Sierra Sunset (Bertrando) chased as a pair and there was another big

gap back to He's Eze (Silver Deputy) and Denis of Cork.

Leparoux continued to push the pace and he covered the half in :45.25 aboard

Sacred Journey. The race stayed essentially the same with little change in the

running order as they headed into the far turn. Sacred Journey's lead began to

diminish and Silver Edition tired badly. Sierra Sunset was making up ground on

the leader and Albarado had Denis of Cork in a sustained drive on the outside.

PYRO's (Pulpit) late run in the Risen Star was very impressive but I maintain

that Denis of Cork's was better. He made up at least 10 lengths on the turn,

caught the leaders at the top of the stretch and then pulled away to a 2

1/4-length victory over Sierra Sunset. Sacred Journey held on well for a

dead-heat for third with Liberty Bull (Holy Bull).

What I loved about Denis of Cork's rally was he did it in contact with the

pace (fifth of 11 with a half-mile to go). It wasn't Pyro's sit far back behind

a slow pace and then explode. He handled the turn incredibly and you might have

to go all the way back to Sunday Silence to find another horse that can actually

accelerate while on the turn as well as Denis of Cork did on Monday.

Just like Pyro, I don't think Denis of Cork beat much. But you can watch the

Southwest repeatedly, focus on the last half-mile, and visualize success in

major, Grade 1 stakes races down the road. Horses that can accelerate from

mid-pack and can willingly go by rivals on the final turn are a dangerous breed

and Denis of Cork shows he's one of them. He earned a Speed rating of 99, which

fits nicely with the leaders of the division going two turns. Carroll indicated

after the race that he'll return from his Fair Grounds base to contest the Rebel

S. (G2) on March 15.

Gulfstream Park will contest the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) on Sunday, and the

race attracted a dozen sophomores going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. With the

configuration of Gulfstream, the starting gate will be close to the clubhouse

turn, and the race might not be won on the first turn, but it might be lost.

COURT VISION (Gulch) won the Remsen S. (G2) last November for Bill Mott, and

from post 3 he might go off as the favorite. He picks up Garrett Gomez but has

to tote highweight of 122 pounds. Nick Zito sends out a pair of contenders –

COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) and ANAK NAKAL (Victory Gallop).

Anak Nakal was no match for Etched (Forestry) in the Nashua S. (G3) two

starts back but came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) over

Blackberry Road (Gone West). He's trained well since then and draws post 8 with

Julien Leparoux back aboard. Cool Coal Man has intrigued me since last year when

he stretched out to two turns. He has a race over the track and gets Kent

Desormeaux breaking from post 1.

Cool Coal Man has the highest Speed rating going two turns (101) and merits

major consideration. He has a tendency of being headstrong, and it will be

interesting to watch if Desormeaux puts the pedal down to get through the first

turn and then gets him to relax down the backside. If he can, I think he has an

upset shot.

Speaking of Etched, he was beaten in Dubai last week but do not despair. He

ran into an extraordinarily tough group of Southern Hemisphere three-year-olds

who have a decided advantage in these races. They are, on average, six months

older than their Northern Hemisphere rivals and have to tote nine extra pounds.

They are usually fast and fit, and the nine pounds is not enough to level the

playing field. Etched could be back as early as the Al Bastakiya on March 6

and/or the UAE Derby (UAE-G2) on the night of the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) on

March 29.