Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 19, 2011

by Dick Powell

With just under three weeks to go at Saratoga, we have enough data to draw

some handicapping conclusions but still enough time left in the meet to take

advantage of what is going on.

There have been two dominating trends at the meet that have statistical

significance. The first is the severe bias toward speed going six furlongs on

the main track. There have been 39 races run on the main track at six furlongs

and there is a speed bias of 72 percent for this distance. An amazing 44 percent

of them have been won gate to wire and the average beaten lengths at the first

call for the winner has been only 1.9 lengths.

This is higher than last year's speed bias of 60 percent at this point of the

meet, but last year there were only 32 percent winners that went gate to wire

and the average beaten lengths at the first call for the winner was 2.7 lengths

The amazing thing this year about the six-furlong races on the main track has

been the dominance of post 1. This year, post 1 is winning at an amazing 36

percent clip. Last year, the rail won at 16 percent, which is about normal.

Considering that some of the six-furlong races are for two-year-olds with many

first time starters, the dominance of the rail is striking. Coupled with the

strong speed bias and ability of front runners to hold on, inside speed is the

way to go for the six-furlong main track races this year at Saratoga.

The other dominating trend at this year's Saratoga meet on the main track has

been how well early speed has done going nine furlongs. There have been 22 races

run on the main track at 1 1/8 miles and there is a speed bias of 77 percent.

The average beaten lengths of the winner at the first call has only been 1.6

lengths. Most of these races have been won on the first turn. If you are first

or second coming out of it entering the backstretch, you are in great shape.

Last year, the speed bias for nine-furlong races on the main track was a more

normal 59 percent with the average beaten lengths of the winner at the first

call at 2.2 lengths.

This year, for some reason, the inside posts have not done as well as the

outside ones. The rail is only winning at 9 percent and posts eight and out have

won at 20 percent. This is clearly counter intuitive and you might have to

constantly remind yourself of it since your intuition is to go with inside

horses with speed.

Last year, after 27 races at nine furlongs on the main track, 30 percent of

them were won by the horse in post 1. Outside posts did next best but nowhere

near how well they are doing this year.

On the turf, there have not been any real statistical differences that we

could hang our hat on. At 5 1/2 furlongs on the Mellon turf course, this year,

there have been 25 races with a speed bias of 60 percent. We've seen 24 percent

of these races won gate to wire and the average beaten lengths of the winner at

the first call was 2.5 lengths. There has only been one winner from post 1 and

the middle to outside posts have the edge.

Last year, speed did not do as well in the sense that the speed bias was only

49 percent, but more horses -- 30 percent -- won gate to wire and the average

beaten lengths of the winner at the first call was 3.1 lengths. The way I would

explain these numbers is that last year, horses on the front end did well but

enough horses were able to come from far back to even out the speed bias

percentage. Like this year, only 5 percent of the horses breaking from post 1

were able to win.

At a mile on the inner turf course this year, there have been 20 races run

this year with a speed bias of only 40 percent. So far, 20 percent of these

races have been won gate to wire and the average beaten lengths of the winner

was 3.5 lengths. Post position success has been evenly spread out with no

discernible advantages.

In another counter-intuitive development, speed is doing better on the Mellon

turf course than on the inner turf course. After 18 races run on the Mellon turf

course at 1 1/16 miles, there has been a speed bias of 72 percent, with 44

percent of the races won gate to wire. The average beaten lengths of the winner

at the first call has only been 2.3 lengths and the rail has won at 17 percent.

After 17 races run on the inner turf course at 1 1/16 miles, the speed bias

is 53 percent and 29 percent of the races were won gate to wire. The average

beaten lengths of the winner at the first call has been 2.9 lengths and the rail

is winning at 24 percent.

You would think it would be just the opposite for the one distance that we

can make comparisons for, but so far it's not.

Last year, as the meet went on, a pronounced speed bias developed the last

three weeks of the meet so it will be interesting to see if it happens again.

For instance, with a week to go in the meet last year, there were 31 races run

at a mile on the inner turf course and there was a speed bias of 58 percent. We

witnessed 35 percent of these races being won gate to wire and the average

beaten lengths of the winner at first call was 3.1 lengths.

We had three inches of rain here on Monday and you might see the turf courses

start to favor speed more. When we go too long without rain, the courses get

firm but the dirt holding the grass begins to break away more on contact as

there is no moisture to hold it together. Once a wet turf course dries up, it

will be very firm and they without more rain it will gradually start to get more

tiring.

Last year, not only was there a pronounced speed bias on both turf courses

the second half of the meet but an inside bias as well. If you were on the

outside stalking or rallying you were at a severe disadvantage.

Dick Powell is a longtime racing observer and has set the North American

morning-line odds for Dubai racing. He authors the

New

York daily selections at brisnet.com.