Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MARCH 21, 2008

by Dick Powell

If you could watch how sausages are made, would you ever eat sausages? It's

not a pretty sight, but the final product tastes so good!

Each day trainers show up at their barns and are confronted with a variety of

ailments that their horses need addressing -- some major, but most so minor that

we never hear about them. They're just part of the game. For every horse that

loses a race because something turned out to be wrong, there's the horse that

surprises everyone in the barn by winning.

I was hoping last year's undefeated juvenile champion WAR PASS (Cherokee Run)

would continue his winning ways in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), get through his

final prep race and go to Louisville as an overwhelming favorite. At that point,

I would bet against him with both fists.

But a funny thing happened on the way through Oldsmar, Florida. Sent off at

odds of 1-20, War Pass was bumped soundly at the start by Make Me Zach (First

Tour) from the outside and Gentleman James (Yankee Gentleman) from the inside.

Instead of going to his customary spot on the lead, he wound up in uncomfortable

quarters going around the first turn.

Down the backstretch, Cornelio Velasquez eased War Pass back a bit and

steered him to the outside for clear running room. But, despite a first half in

:47.44, it looked like War Pass was having trouble keeping up. If he was going

to move, it would be nearing the far turn, but all he did was maintain his

position. When Atoned (Repent) loomed four wide on the far turn, Velasquez was

forced to show his cards. He went to the whip and he had nothing.

Atoned continued his wide rally to take the lead in the stretch. It looked

like he was home free but here came BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder) with Eibar Coa.

The New York-bred Barclay Tagg trainee had sat behind the early pace while

saving ground and responded nicely when swung to the outside nearing the top of

the stretch. War Pass was dropping back and it was going to be a two-horse race

to the wire.

Making his first start in 112 days, Atoned weakened just enough for Big Truck

to surge by him and win by a neck. It was another 4 1/2 lengths back to the

wide-rallying Dynamic Wayne (Eltish). War Pass staggered home last of seven.

After the race, the live TV coverage picked up War Pass' owner Robert LaPenta

saying that the horse had spiked a fever earlier in the week. He was as

dumbfounded as anyone over War Pass' performance, and without the benefit of

reflection, raised the issue of a fever.

In the days after the Tampa Bay Derby, trainer Nick Zito and LaPenta himself

vehemently denied that War Pass had a fever or even a temperature above normal.

Their veterinarians thoroughly checked out War Pass after the race and came up

with nothing. Zito kept open the possibility of still running in the Wood

Memorial (G1) on April 5 at Aqueduct.

Even though Zito and LaPenta expressed in the strongest possible terms that

they would never run a horse that was less than 100 percent, it is still

possible that he had a fever a week ago and they thought he was over it. Thus,

in their mind, they thought he was 100 percent for the Tampa Bay Derby. It's not

as risky as it seems since it is something that trainers and owners have to deal

with every day. Horses will always fool you. You think they are better and they

are not or there's another unknown cause for the poor performance. War Pass

could have had a fever, gotten over it, and run a poor race for a totally

unrelated reason. In real time, LaPenta was verbalizing what was going through

his mind as he searched for possible explanations for what just happened. The

inexplicable happened, and he was asked to explain it. Not easy.

In project management theory, there is a function called the "critical path."

In the management of a project, there are some tasks that can be performed

simultaneously. Some are independent of others and some must be completed before

the next one can be performed. Think of building a house.

When a project reaches a critical path, no task can be completed until the

previous one is completed. If there is a delay in the completion of any task,

the timeline gets pushed back because no future tasks can be performed. You

can't nail shingles until the roof trusses are installed.

The road to the Triple Crown is a project that has changed recently. The

Kentucky Derby (G1) is still run on the first Saturday in May, but the path to

get there has become critical. With trainers deciding to run in fewer prep

races, the flexibility to make changes along the way is sacrificed. There are

very few "audibles" called at the line of scrimmage. Plans are mapped out with

lots of time between two or three prep races. If something goes wrong, it is

very hard to recover. In order to reduce the risk of something going wrong in

running too many preps, trainers have decided to take the risk of running in

fewer preps.

War Pass is now on a critical path to the Derby. He went from an undefeated

champion to a horse that ran dead last in his first stakes race of the year and

will only have one more prep to right the ship. Secretariat (Bold Ruler) didn't

begin his three-year-old campaign until March 17 in the seven-furlong Bay Shore

S. (G3). He then came back three weeks later to win the Gotham S. (G2) and then

it was two weeks later when he was third in the Wood Memorial to his stablemate

Angle Light (Quadrangle). And, this was when the Wood was run two weeks before

the Derby. Big Red survived the bump in the road to dominate the Triple Crown

like no horse has ever done. We'll see about War Pass.

Tampa Bay's 5TH race was an example of the betting public's interest not

being protected on many different levels. The race was a high-class,

seven-furlong allowance event on the main track and the public made Militos

Express (Notebook) the overbet 4-5 favorite off a fast win two races back going

six furlongs. David Centeno riding for Jamie Ness (38 percent strike rate the

last 60 days according to BRIS) helped contribute to the underlay.

I thought that Miss Goodnight (Johannesburg) had a big shot to upset the

favorite at generous 10-1 odds. She won over the track at today's distance in

her last start off a three-month layoff for Tim Ritchey and with any improvement

she could be right there. I made a big win bet on Miss Goodnight and a big

exacta saver with Militos Express over Miss Goodnight.

As the horses began to load, Miss Goodnight was the first one in and for some

reason she threw a fit in the gate. Pablo Morales jumped off her and she

thrashed around to the point that the gate crew could not get near her. She was

having a meltdown and it continued for at least 30 seconds. The gate crew

finally got her out of the gate and she was examined by the track vet.

Watching all this with a lot of money invested in the race presented a

dilemma for me. Do I sit back and wait for the announcement that Miss Goodnight

has been scratched or do I try to cancel my ticket? I made my bets on a

self-service machine at my local harness track using an account card. I went up

to the machine, followed the proper procedures to get to the "cancel/review"

selection, but when I went to cancel the bet the machine said that the

functionality had been disabled.

I went back to my seat and watched incredulously when the gate crew loaded

Miss Goodnight back into the starting gate. The latches were sprung and as the

chart comment said, Miss Goodnight "showed little." I realize that the procedure

is for the track vet to examine the horse to see if she is injured. When no

injury was found, she was loaded back in and raced.

Even though Miss Goodnight did not have any physical injuries, anyone that

saw her mental meltdown knew she had no chance of running well. Besides the

thrashing around in the gate, the emotional energy spent had to be enormous. Who

knows what her heart rate was when the race began.

I understand tracks do not like to scratch horses at the gate causing refunds

and lost handle; especially on Tampa Bay's biggest day of the year. But the

interests of the bettors were not looked out for. Miss Goodnight had no chance

of winning the race or even competing well.

By making the bet on a self-service machine using an account card, I reduced

my ability to cancel my bet. Had I used a regular voucher, I would have been

issued a paper ticket like anyone else. With that paper ticket, I could have run

to a mutuel window and had a clerk cancel it. But the harness track that I was

betting at has a policy on their account wagering system to not permit

cancellations with less than 10 minutes before the race. This policy is in place

to prevent pool manipulations by canceling tickets, which I fully understand.

But at the end of the day, I feel that my betting interests were not protected.

I took a few days off from betting and then returned on Wednesday when the

first horse I bet at Aqueduct unseated its rider coming out of the gate.