Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JANUARY 14, 2011

by Dick Powell

Fair Grounds Race Course is having a good meet this year and with a few

exceptions, the weather has been good enough to conduct a lot of turf races.

Through last Sunday, there have been 316 races run at the Fair Grounds this

season and 64 of them have been run on the turf course. When the weather

permits, there are at least three races carded for the Stall-Wilson turf course

and sometimes four.

About a month ago, the turf course was showing signs of wear and tear from

its constant use. The rail was moved out to 20 feet but that meant that the

fields were racing over the same path over and over. Yes, the inside 20 feet was

being protected, but the problem is that the part of the course that is not

being utilized can only re-generate itself if the weather is warm enough to

encourage growth.

Luckily, rain hit New Orleans at the end of last year so there was no turf

racing on December 31, January 1, 2, 6, 7 and part of January 9. This has

enabled the course to come back some although Thursday's cancellation due to

freezing conditions will not help unless it is followed by some

unseasonably-warm weather.

The Stall-Wilson turf course is sand-based which works very well and is a

great surface for the horses to race over, but it is not always aesthetically

pleasing. The turf course grass mixture is a blend that grows up and then falls

over. I describe it as U. S. Open rough. Because it falls over, it gives the

horses a lot of cushion underneath but it doesn't always look good since it is

rarely mowed. You don't get that sharp, dressed up look like you will see at

Calder or Gulfstream.

The second negative with the turf course being sand-based is that the sand

gets kicked up and sprays so the part of the course that is being used the most

starts to take on a whitish look to it.

But the ability to take the pounding it takes and still provide a safe

surface without the pot holes that many clay-based turf courses have is well

worth the aesthetic drawbacks. Because the ground breaks away a bit more than

usual, the Stall-Wilson turf course is notoriously slow and not very kind to

speed horses.

The three main distances that turf races are run at the Fair Grounds are 5

1/2 furlongs, one mile and 1 1/16 miles. So far this year, there have been 14

races run on the turf at 5 1/2 furlongs and only 7 percent of them have been won

gate to wire. The BRIS Speed Bias is 43 percent and the winner's average beaten

distance is 4.0 lengths at the first call.

At one mile, there have been 27 races run on the turf this year and only 7

percent of them have been won gate to wire. The BRIS Speed Bias is 41 percent

and the winner's average beaten distance at the first call is 4.3 lengths. At 1

1/16 miles, there have been 17 races run this year and 6 percent of them have

been won gate to wire. The BRIS Speed Bias is 29 percent and the winner's

average beaten distance at the first call is 3.7 lengths.

Clearly, the Stall-Wilson turf course favors horses that come from off the

pace. Furthermore, the sand-based nature results in the races being run

extremely slow; even when the course is listed as "Firm."

So, when watching turf races at the Fair Grounds, no matter what the early

pace might be, the closers still have the advantage. This is counter intuitive

as you see race after race where the leader is cruising along through a half in

51 seconds and that horse gets swallowed up turning for home. Very few riders

send their horses to the front and set demanding fractions. It can be done but

it happens, as the above data suggests, about once very 14 turf races.

Considering how quirk the Fair Grounds' Stall-Wilson turf course is, it takes

a certain rider to do well over it.

So far, the leading rider on the Stall-Wilson turf course has been James

Graham with 11 winners to his credit. He has been masterful saving ground when

he needs to and timing his move from off the pace. When the fifth-leading rider

overall is the leading rider on the turf course it pays to take notice.

Next is Rosie Napravnik who has nine winners on the turf course. She has been

a revelation at this meet and is one of the few riders at the Fair Grounds that

can successfully put a horse on the lead on the turf and nurse it along to

victory. She's also won on the turf by rallying up the rail from far back.

The recently-injured Robby Albarado already had eight winners on the turf

course and when he gets back in the saddle he will once again bear watching.

Shaun Bridgmohan has five winners on the turf course and Corey Lanerie, Miguel

Mena, and Jamie Theriot have four each. For Theriot and Mena to only be tied for

fifth place among the turf riders is surprising and shows that their skills of

breaking horses well and getting them involved does not help them when they are

riding the Fair Grounds turf course.