Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 9, 2011

by Dick Powell

Suddenly, the mostly-disappointing first-crop sire -- DISCREET CAT -- has

come alive with two juvenile winners that have put him back on the map. At

Gulfstream last Saturday, Todd Pletcher unveiled DISCREET DANCER in the 3RD

race.

Discreet Dancer must have been training lights out at Palm Meadows as he was

sent off at odds of 7-10 for his career debut in the maiden special weight for

two-year-olds going 5 1/2 furlongs on the main track. The BRIS sire stats show

Discreet Cat siring 10 percent debut runners with a sire production index of

only 0.48 but here was the public betting Discreet Dancer like he was the second

coming of Uncle Mo.

Out of the mare West Side Dancer, Discreet Dancer is a half-brother to

Travelin Man, who won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream as a sophomore

going seven furlongs. Discreet Cat himself was a monster first out winner at

Saratoga as a two-year-old, so there was certainly more than enough pedigree for

first out success. Throw in Pletcher's 19 percent win rate with debut runners

and all the ingredients were there.

Breaking well for Javier Castellano, Discreet Dancer went up and challenged

Someday Came right from the start. After a first quarter mile in :22.12,

Castellano let him go and, at the top of the stretch after a half mile in

:44.99, the race was over as Discreet Dancer began to draw off. Through the

lane, he was pulling away with every stride without a lot of encouragement from

Castellano.

The final margin of victory was 9 3/4 lengths but the real story was on the

teletimer as Discreet Dancer covered the 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:02.34. He ran his

last three-sixteenths of a mile in :17.35 and did it without any urging. With

all the sprint stakes coming up, he should be able to gain a graded stakes win

before long and help get his sire to live up to his high expectations.

Up at Woodbine, Ian Black sent out INCREDICAT for his career debut going 5

1/2 furlongs on the Polytrack. A strong field of 11 juvenile males was assembled

but once again the betting public was on the money and sent the son of Discreet

Cat off as the 5-4 favorite.

Breaking from post nine with leading rider Luis Contreras aboard, he stalked

a first quarter in :22.48 going into the far turn. He made his move around the

turn and had the lead turning for home. From there, he was able to maintain his

advantage to the wire and win by 1 1/4 lengths. It was a very professional

performance for the Kinghaven Farms homebred.

Out of the unplaced mare Lady Auchamore, Incredicat is a half-brother to

Grade 2 victor Stormy Lord, who earned more than $900,000 in three years of

racing. The Canadian racing season is over so I don't know where he will show up

but Incredicat should be a major factor in the three-year-old Canadian-bred

races up there next year.

Finally, QISMAH broke his maiden first out in Japan and earned more than

$130,000 for the win. I don't know if his first out win counts in our statistics

but these three debut winners on one weekend against top company shows it better

late than never for a sire who did not live up to the expectation of having

early juvenile winners but is now starting to catch on.

*****

If you have been watching racing from Aqueduct, you can't help but notice

Junior Alvarado in the saddle. The 25-year-old native of Venezuela has moved his

tack to New York on a permanent basis and has shown the ability to win under any

circumstances. He won four races last Sunday, including a stakes win aboard SWAG

DADDY in the Damon Runyon for New York-breds.

One thing that you immediately notice is his willingness to race down on the

inside and wait for room. Horses respond very well to his hands and heels so

when he finds an opening the response is immediate and he is able to make his

own luck. The jockey colony will be extremely strong at Aqueduct this winter but

Alvarado should be able to hold his own.

Purses are going to go up significantly in January at Aqueduct and there

could be another purse increase soon thereafter. The average drop per machine

per day is around $550, and when the rest of the VLTs are installed in a couple

of weeks total volume should be enough to drive purses even higher.