Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

MAY 16, 2008

by Dick Powell

So here we are, ready to run the Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico on Saturday,

and all the questions seem to have been answered. During the prep season for the

Kentucky Derby (G1), all we had were questions. But, after BIG BROWN (Boundary)

dominated the first leg of the Triple Crown, there's nothing more to ask. "A" is

greater than "B," even from post 20 and a four-wide trip around the track.

But, I have to be true to my conspiratorial nature and raise the question on

how he came out of the Derby and why are a dozen mediocre sophomores willing to

take him on? What do their connections know or suspect?

I questioned how a horse with bad feet going into the Derby could come out of

it without being worse for wear in my last column. Trainer Rick Dutrow has

jogged him the past two weeks and said that he might blow him out a quarter-mile

the morning of the race; not the sign of a horse raring to go.

Dutrow, and the IEAH owners, are very knowledgeable about speed figures and

know that a reaction to a strenuous effort can be expected with only two weeks

to recover. Like Laz Barrera did with Bold Forbes between the 1976 Preakness and

Belmont S. (G1), Dutrow is doing as little as possible to have a fresh horse on

Saturday.

This is a departure from his normal training pattern and while it makes

sense, we have no idea how he'll respond. Will he be too keyed up from not

working much the past two weeks or will he be a bit dull and less fit?

Theoretically, a lightly raced horse like Big Brown should still have room for

improvement but the reason why he's so lightly raced might take precedence.

The feet, the front-leg bandages and the expected bounce might be enough to

bring Big Brown back to the field. And, at 1-5, Big Brown represents little

pari-mutuel value when you factor in the risk. The price he'll go off compared

to the other contenders will be based far more on what he just did in the Derby

than what he might do in the Preakness.

Just like juvenile champion WAR PASS (Cherokee Run) in the Tampa Bay Derby

(G3), if Big Brown gets beaten into the first turn, things could get

interesting.

Big Brown drew post seven in the field of 13 and I think Kent Desormeaux will

ride him like a Quarter Horse out of the gate. He showed in the Derby that he

can rate and doesn't have to be on the lead. But, like War Pass, the question is

how will he run if he has to shorten stride?

In the Derby, Desormeaux looked to drop in from his outside post but the

bulky field prevented him from finding a spot to tuck into. It probably worked

to his advantage as he stayed in the clear like a trotter that goes first over

and grinds the field down.

But in the Preakness, there are a couple of speed horses to his outside that

could tighten things up.

From post 10, RILEY TUCKER (Harlan's Holiday) has shown good speed. He broke

his maiden in his career debut going gate to wire last July at Belmont going 5

1/2 furlongs and his pace numbers last out in the Lexington S. (G2) were very

strong. To his outside, GIANT MOON (Giant's Causeway) was rated off a crazy pace

in the Wood Memorial (G1) last out but showed high speed previously and is

working very fast for Rich Schosberg. And, from post 12, GAYEGO (Gilded Time)

has good speed and did his best running when pressing a fast pace in the

Arkansas Derby (G2).

All three break outside of Big Brown and if any can outsprint him to the

first turn, I think Big Brown is in trouble. Rider intent will be critical and

of the three, I expect Ramon Dominguez aboard Giant Moon to be most likely to

send his horse from the gate.

Now that we have the ingredients for an upset, it's still a very hard race to

handicap. KENTUCKY BEAR (Mr. Greeley) looks to be the most logical based on a

tremendous maiden win going a mile at Gulfstream in his career debut. He was

moved way up in the Fountain of Youth (G2) next out but came back with a

rallying third in the Blue Grass (G1) next out on Polytrack. He's trained

brilliantly for Reade Baker since then and not having enough graded stakes

earnings to make the Derby might be a blessing.

Of all the rest, the horse I am most enamored with is ICABAD CRANE (Jump

Start). He's only had four career starts, has won all three of his dirt starts,

and shows a win over the track at nine furlongs in his last start when he flew

home with a strong final pace figure of 111. He draws post three, gets red-hot

rider Jeremy Rose back in the irons, and is trained at Fair Hill Training Center

by Graham Motion.

If he were a speed horse that won at Pimlico, I might discount his chances.

But the fact that he came home so strong last out here makes me think that he's

sitting on a big race. A ground-saving trip for the first half of the race

should set him up for the stretch run. At 30-1 on the morning line, I'll take my

chances.

Here's my betting strategy: Icabad Crane across the board; straight exactas

with Big Brown over Icabad Crane and Kentucky Bear; then, a trifecta box with

Icabad Crane, Kentucky Bear, BEHINDATTHEBAR (Forest Wildcat) and HEY BYRN (Put

It Back). I am not going to bet a lot since going against Big Brown is probably

bad for my financial health. But, just in case my instincts are on to something,

I want to be in the position of benefiting.