Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

NOVEMBER 4, 2005

by Dick Powell

If you were one of 54,289 hearty souls that braved the elements and attended

Breeders' Cup XXII, you know how cold it was. And if you were sitting outside

like I was, you know how windy it was.

At the beginning of the day, there was a strong wind blowing from left to

right -- in the horse's faces down the backstretch and at their back in the

homestretch. Front end speed on the main track races looked like it was going to

be at a disadvantage with horses using a lot of energy in the early part of the

races.

After last Wednesday, Belmont Park did not get any more rain despite some

threats. Even on Breeders' Cup Day there was a 30 percent chance of showers.

That said, Belmont's main track looked like it hadn't been watered in a while.

It had already soaked up more than 18 inches of rain during the month of October and,

with the threat of more rain, the goal was to get it to dry out and not run the

risk of watering it before more showers hit.

Just like we saw at Saratoga's Opening Day this year, the Belmont main track

was very dry and tiring. Coupled with the head win down the backside, it looked

like the main track would be what I call a "turn back" track instead of a

"stretch out" track.

A "turn back" track is one where stamina has an advantage and you favor

horses that have succeeded at longer distances. A "stretch out" track is one

where speed is carrying and horses are able to succeed going farther distances

than they usually do.

In the Sport Page H. (G3) at seven furlongs, I went with Wild Tale (Tale of

the Cat), who had the right one-dimensional running style and made up about 15

lengths in the last half-mile to fall three parts of a length short at 20-1

odds. In the next race, the Discovery H. (G3) for three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles, the

classy Scrappy T (Fit to Fight) had a big lead until being run down by MAGNA

GRADUATE (Honor Grades).

Two main track races run and it certainly looked like the outside part of the

main track in the homestretch was the place to be and horses running hard into

the head wind would have trouble. Now to the eight main events.

Juvenile Fillies

The public settled on FOLKLORE (Tiznow) and the homebred from Bob and Beverly

Lewis delivered an impressive win. Sent to the front by Edgar Prado, she was

able to relax despite a first quarter in :22.65 and a half in :45.34. Gary

Stevens inexplicably sent Knights Templar (Exploit) up the rail to challenge

Folklore and took the lead around the far turn.

Prado, who had never won a Breeders' Cup race previously, sat chilly and

pounced when they turned for home. Knights Templar backed up quickly and

Folklore had a three-length lead with a furlong to run. Wild Fit (Wild Wonder)

was making a furious rally from the back of the pack and with a clear trip might

have gotten there, but a poor break and traffic on the turn cost her dearly. She

finished 1 1/4 lengths short, and D. Wayne Lukas earned his fifth Juvenile

Fillies (G1) and 18th overall Breeders' Cup winner.

The final time of 1:43.85 was very slow. Adieu (El Corredor) finished far

behind and you had to wonder at this point whether that very sloppy track that

the Frizette S. (G1) and Champagne S. (G1) were run over might have taken

something out of those who competed on it.

Juvenile

I thought First Samurai (Giant's Causeway) looked poor in the walking ring. On

a cold day a horse shouldn't look hot, but he did while being walked around

after being saddled. He wasn't washed out but something was amiss. First-time

Lasix is not always an automatic positive as some horses respond negatively to

it. Who knows?

When the horses came out on the track, First Samurai still looked the same. I

know liver chestnuts are hard to judge visually and with the hint of a winter

coat they don't always have that dark shine to them. With Adieu running so

poorly in the race before, was that a sign that Henny Hughes (Hennessy) and

First Samurai might have come out of their last race poorly as well?

Too many questions to ask - especially at 13-10 odds. First Samurai acted up

at the gate and broke in at the start. Dawn of War (Catienus) went right to the

front as expected and Edgar Prado took a good hold of the speedy Henny Hughes

and got him to relax. Private Vow (Broken Vow) was pressing the pace three wide

until his left rein broke and Johnny Velazquez had little control of his mount

around the turn.

At this point, the headwind had turned into a quartering wind. If you were

running down the backstretch, the wind was now blowing at you from 2 o'clock

instead of 12 o'clock. Midway around the turn, the wind was at their backs and

Belmont's hemlock hedge down the backside can block some of a crosswind but not

a direct headwind. The first half in :45.75 was very legitimate but not as

demanding as it might have been a half-hour ago.

First Samurai was stalking the pace while four wide nearing the top of the

stretch, but you could see that he was not doing it on his own and being

encouraged by Jerry Bailey. Prado and Henny Hughes took a clear lead turning for

home, and Bailey and First Samurai had dead aim. It looked for a moment that it

would be a two-horse race to the wire but on the far outside came STEVIE

WONDERBOY (Stephen Got Even) with Garrett Gomez. The winner of the Del Mar

Futurity (G2) 52 days ago was making up a ton of ground.

First Samurai's rally began to fail and Henny Hughes was still battling on

gamely, but the dear boy himself would not be denied and Stevie Wonderboy won

going away by 1 1/4 lengths. It was his first start over a mile and he has a

fascinating pedigree for classic success.

By Stephen Got Even (A.P. Indy), Stevie Wonderboy is out of a Summer Squall

(Storm Bird) mare, meaning that his two grandsires are the half-brothers A.P.

Indy and Summer Squall and he has their dam -- Weekend Surprise (Secretariat) --

in his pedigree 3x3. This is the first time I have seen this inbreed of Weekend

Surprise and it makes sense now that A.P. Indy and Summer Squall's sons and

daughters are old enough to be bred to each other. This could be the 21st

century's version of the inbreed to Almahmoud (Mahmoud). A mile and a quarter on

the first Saturday in May should be well within his pedigree.

Stevie Wonderboy's final time of 1:41.64 was terrific and much faster than

Folklore's. Last year, Sweet Catomine (Storm Cat) ran faster than Wilko (Awesome

Again) so for the males to run that much faster than the females is a sign of

good things to come next year.

Filly & Mare Turf

The Filly & Mare Turf (G1), held over 10 furlongs on the inner course, was

the first turf race of the day and the wind figured to slow them down at some

point during the race. The rail was down and they were running on the inside

part of the course that had not been used for five or six weeks. The wind that

came after the rain earlier in the week did the job by drying up the turf enough

that it was listed as "good" and I thought that was an accurate assessment. The

chance of more showers and a soft turf did not take place, and the courses were

probably perfect and fair for everyone.

And, despite hundreds of media people covering the Breeders' Cup all week but

not paying attention, it looked like the turf courses had been rolled with a

heavy drum that is usually used to smooth out rough spots.

Bailey had been the regular rider of INTERCONTINENTAL (GB) (Danehill) but

chose to stay with the defending champion Ouija Board (Cape Cross). Bobby

Frankel went out and got Rafael Bejarano to ride and you would think that he

would have his hands full with one of the most headstrong fillies in racing.

Known for resisting her rider's efforts to get her to relax and being asked to

go 10 furlongs with a new rider unfamiliar with her antics, Intercontinental

went off at 15-1 odds while Ouija Board was the 23-10 favorite.

The gate opened and there was Intercontinental going to the front as

expected. However, what wasn't expected was the love affair she had with Rafael.

Instead of fighting him, she relaxed beautifully and galloped along on a loose

rein. Velazquez tried to put some pressure on with Wend (Pulpit), but

Intercontinental was cruising along.

In 2001, Banks Hill went gate to wire and won the Filly & Mare Turf. Four

years later, her full sister Intercontinental went gate to wire and won the

Filly & Mare Turf. Ouija Board was a gallant second and Film Maker (Dynaformer)

was a good third. Horse for the course Wonder Again (Dynaformer) was washed out

before the race and did well to get fourth.

The final time of 2:02.34 after six furlongs in 1:13.62 showed how the turf

was not the bog that we expected it to be.

Sprint

With the wind blowing and a main track that was crying out for the water

truck, I thought that Lost in the Fog (Lost Soldier) was going to be up against

it in the Sprint (G1). After the usual rough start that we see every year in the

Sprint, Russell Baze sent Lost in the Fog up after the leaders but instead of

clearing the field with his patented middle move around the turn, he was

pressing a hot pace four wide.

He took over turning for home and his orange silks stuck out on a dreary day

but the closers were just getting rolling at this point. SILVER TRAIN (Old

Trieste) won the Jerome (G2) at a mile last out and he used his natural speed to

sit behind the early duelers. He swung to the outside and Prado had dead aim on

the leaders.

From far back, Gomez had Vosburgh (G1) winner Taste of Paradise (Conquistador

Cielo) in a long drive. Full of run, he looked to rally toward the inside but

Attila's Storm (Forest Wildcat) and Lost in the Fog were still battling on

grimly. When he looked to his outside Prado was already there with Silver Train

and Gomez had to slam on the brakes.

He quickly recovered and after swinging to the outside began to make up

ground. Silver Train had forged to the lead and Taste of Paradise made one

final, desperate run that fell a head short. Deep closer Lion Tamer (Will's Way)

rallied for third. Lost in the Fog finished a well-beaten seventh as the 7-10

favorite and after the race his connections showed a lot of class with no

excuses given. Can't say the same about Gomez, who foolishly filed a claim of

foul against the winner.

It was Prado's second win on the day and Rick Dutrow's first Breeders' Cup

win. After serving a 60-day suspension this summer and the eyes of racing upon

him at all times, Dutrow went about his business and is doing better than ever.

Mile

This race was over when ARTIE SCHILLER (El Prado [Ire]) came out on the

track. That's how good he looked. Neck arched and looking like he was going to

explode, he would benefit from a turf course that was much more to his liking.

The soft course that the Europeans thought they were going to get was not to be

and deep closers wound up at a big disadvantage - especially those that were

forced wider than the inside 18 feet that hadn't been used lately.

Bailey sent the speedy filly Sand Springs (Dynaformer) to the front with Ad

Valorem (Danzig) and Leroidesanimaux (Brz) (Candy Stripes) giving chase. After a

modest half in :46.68, the field bunched up on the turn and Artie Schiller and

Gomez (filling in for the injured Richard Migliore) saved ground in heavy

traffic.

Velazquez had Leroi clear on the outside and took a short lead in the

stretch. The winner of his last eight straight races, he trained with a bar shoe

the past month for Frankel who was open and honest about it. At 10 a.m., NYRA

sent out a press release that he was going to wear two aluminum pads and

throughout the day at Belmont the pads were announced as well. If you were

paying attention you knew Leroi had two pads on.

Even so, Leroi ran a huge race but couldn't hold off Artie Schiller's late

charge. Gorella (Fr) (Grape Tree Road) ran a gigantic race for third despite

heavy traffic problems. On a day of firsts, Jimmy Jerkens earned the initial

Breeders' Cup victory for his family. His father, Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens,

is still seeking his first.

Distaff

In 1995, Shug McGaughey won the Distaff with Inside Information (Private

Account) by the length of the stretch. In 2005, Shug sent out PLEASANT HOME

(Seeking the Gold) at 30-1 odds in the Distaff and she won by 9 1/4 lengths. The

half-sister to Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom) rallied from dead last and blew by

22-10 favorite Ashado (Saint Ballado) and Society Selection (Coronado's Quest).

If anyone took full advantage of the tiring main track, it was the

one-dimensional Pleasant Home who was second in the Spinster S. (G1) last out

when up against a severe inside, speed-favoring bias at Keeneland.

Turf

I have maintained all year that the European turf horses are far superior

than our turf horses and it was never more apparent than here. SHIROCCO (Ire) (Monsun),

who couldn't warm up stablemate Hurricane Run (Montjeu [Ire]), got a perfect

trip galloping along behind the early pacesetter and took over with more than a

quarter-mile to go to win by less than two lengths over a very game Ace (Ire) (Danehill).

If you followed my selections last week here, you had the cold $296.50 exacta.

With Azamour (Ire) (Night Shift) finishing third and Bago (Fr) (Nashwan)

finishing fourth, the Europeans swept the top four spots. And neither of the top

two finishers of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) came over for the race.

Besides being right about Shirocco being the top choice, I was most proud of

picking Ace to be second. I thought that his race in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Invitational (G1) was a lot better than it looked due to Pat Valenzuela riding

him first over next to the pacesetter and never getting in behind horses like

Europeans are trained to do.

Kieren Fallon gave him a perfect ride and had the winner not fell into a

perfect trip behind the rabbit, Ace might have been able to get by in the

stretch. He was the key horse in the race and he came through.

Classic

With darkness falling and the wind died down, SAINT LIAM (Saint Ballado)

wound up with a good trip from post 12 and won the $4 million Classic under a

heady ride by Bailey.

After breaking outward at the start and taking Starcraft (NZ) (Soviet Star)

to the outer rail, Bailey used his horse's natural speed to gain position in

behind the early leaders. Sun King (Charismatic) and Suave (A.P. Indy) went to

the front and dueled through a first half in :47.68. Flower Alley (Distorted

Humor) was tracking the leaders in third with Saint Liam sitting in a nice

pocket down the backstretch.

Around the far turn, Velazquez sent Flower Alley up after the leaders three

wide and Bailey was the picture of confidence out in the middle of the track

four wide in the fuschia silks of Mr. and Mrs. William Warren. Mark Guidry had

Perfect Drift (Dynaformer) in contact with the leaders and 69-1 longshot Super

Frolic (Pine Bluff) was getting a perfect ride by Eibar Coa.

After a mile in 1:36.87, the field turned for home and Bailey and Velazquez

were locked in a duel to the wire. At one point it looked like Flower Alley was

responding to Velazquez's desperate left-handed whipping, but Bailey had too

much horse and he drew off to a length win in 2:01.49. Even with the favorite on

top, the superfecta came back $12,636 with Flower Alley, Perfect Drift and Super

Frolic finishing out the top four places.

Dutrow had his second winner on the day and at one point it looked like his

friends were going to beat him to death celebrating in their clubhouse box.

Dutrow recovered and in the winner's circle presentation he still couldn't

believe what he had accomplished. For Bailey, it was his fifth win in the

Classic and despite beginning 10-furlong races on the turn, another outside post

won the Classic.