Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

AUGUST 8, 2008

by Dick Powell

It's a strange world we now live in. It was only a few decades ago that a

strong nine-furlong race would be viewed as being perfect to set up a horse for

a 10-furlong race three weeks later. Not these days, though.

BIG BROWN (Boundary) might not be back to his spring form that saw him romp

in the Florida Derby (G1), Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness S. (G1), but his

win in the Haskell (G1) last Sunday should be good enough to set up a run at the

Travers S. (G1) three weeks later.

The "old school" way of looking at a race where the winner comes off a

layoff, wins the race and then gets tired is that he needed the race and should

be much fitter next time out.

Thankfully, trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. was not outfitted with a live microphone

in the first quarter-mile of the Haskell or we would have heard expletives that

have never been strung together before. Big Brown broke beautifully from post

4 and looked like he could make the lead going into the first turn -- always a

positive at Monmouth Park -- but quickly Kent Desormeaux wrapped up on him as

Coal Play (Mineshaft) took the lead.

Big Brown started to resist by throwing his head when not allowed to do what

he wanted and Desormeaux was able to steer him to the outside and take up a

stalking position around the first turn. Would have loved to have been a fly on

Dutrow's wall as all this was happening.

Coal Play, the apparent rabbit for his more regarded stablemate Cool Coal Man

(Mineshaft), cruised through a half in :46.59 and six furlongs in 1:10.85.

Desormeaux looked like he was asking him for run around the far turn and was not

getting much response.

For about a 100 yards nearing the top of the stretch it looked like Big

Brown was not going to catch Coal Play and might be passed by Cool Coal Man. But

he grinded along and went by Coal Play while drifting out badly. His final

margin was 1 3/4 lengths and the final time of 1:48.31 earned him a BRIS Speed

rating of 110.

Ordinarily, you could assume that Big Brown is back and about to regain his

early season form, but the visual of him drifting badly in the stretch was not

pretty. Yes, it was a sign of him being dead tired and winning on guts. But, it

usually is a sign of looming physical ailments that may not have surfaced yet.

This was not running greenly when a horse runs erratically through the stretch.

This was a horse that was bearing out badly in the stretch despite Desormeaux's

efforts to rein him in.

I'm not making any predictions as to where Big Brown will run next other than

the Travers is off the radar. Just like major league baseball starting pitchers

need at least four days rest in between starts, today's equine stars need as

much rest as possible.

One start that Big Brown could make if his connections were so inclined is

the Woodward S. (G1) at Saratoga on August 30. Run at nine furlongs for

three-year-olds and up, it was announced on Tuesday that 2007 Horse of the Year

CURLIN (Smart Strike) will make his next start in the Woodward.

It looks like the foray to Paris for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) is

history as Team Curlin still has trouble deciding whether his second-place

finish in the Man o' War Stakes (G1) was indicative of him not liking turf

racing. For now, turf racing for Curlin has been put on hold and it's back to

the dirt.

I don't blame Team Curlin passing on the Arc, but it's disheartening how

American horses, with the exception of the races in Dubai, will rarely ship to

foreign countries to take on the world's stars. Two years ago, Japanese legend

Deep Impact left the cozy confines of Japan and ventured to

Paris for the Arc where he finished a close third -- with a better setup he might

have won. He lost nothing in defeat, gaining only admiration. There's talk of

Curlin trying something radical in his farewell start, but we'll have to wait and

see.

So Paris' loss is Saratoga's gain and this year's Woodward could be truly

memorable if Big Brown's connections would show up. After the Haskell, Dutrow

didn't seem too worried about facing Curlin and now that the announcement has

been made as to where he will run next there is no excuse not to get in the gate

with him.

Despite my speculation above, if all is well with Big Brown he has to race

Curlin now. Curlin is unlikely to contest the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) on a

newly installed surface at Santa Anita, so that match-up is out. If co-owner Jess Jackon's

"Been there, done that" logic applies to the Classic, it should also

apply to the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) which he won last year as well. If Big

Brown is ever going to take on Curlin, the Woodward on August 30 is the perfect

spot.

Whatever was bothering ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) before her last start in the

Vanity H. (G1) is a thing of the past. In Saturday's Clement Hirsch

H. (G2), the undefeated four-year-old filly was cool as a cucumber going to the post

and performed none of the antics she did before the Vanity. Too bad for her

seven rivals.

Mike Smith had Zenyatta trailing the field early but then began to pick off

horses around the far turn. The long-striding filly showed a high degree of

athleticism when she split horses at the top of the stretch and blew by the

leader with a furlong to go. Her final margin was only a length -- she won the

Vanity by a half-length -- but the difference was night and day.

Zenyatta, whose final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:41.48, earned a BRIS

Speed rating of 103, her second-highest ever, and reversed the downward

trend of her two prior starts. A proven commodity on synthetic tracks, it will

be interesting to see where she runs next and if she will take on males in the

Classic.

The Olympics begin this weekend. When watching track and field or swimming,

note how many world records are set when the pace is slow. Then, go back to

handicapping horses understanding that fast-paced races are the ones that

usually result in high Speed figures.