Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 14, 2012

by Dick Powell

The inner dirt track at Aqueduct finally opened up this Wednesday, two weeks

later than it usually does. Gone are seven-furlong and one-turn mile races for a

daily dose of six-furlong and one-mile two-turn races.

What turns off some handicappers this time of the year is the monotony of the

inner dirt track races. They get enticed by the sunny climes of Hallandale

Beach, Florida, New Orleans or Arcadia, California, and their winter fare. When

the weather warms up next spring, are you going to make any more money by

playing these tracks if your bread and butter is New York racing?

For many of us, the inner dirt track is like any other boutique meet in

American racing. It has a start and a finish, many horses are pointed for it,

and it attracts horses from other racing venues. If you are willing to put in

the work, the results can be as good, if not better, than the other tracks that

race this time of the year.

Speed does very well on the inner dirt track and riders that get their horses

involved in the early pace also do well. Let's go over some of the track bias

stats that can be found in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances.

Considering these results, speed is always important no matter the distance

and these races were run last year when the weather was unseasonably warm and

dry -- not conducive to front end speed.

New York's leading rider Ramon Dominguez is supposed to be back in action on

December 26.

One rider who should do extremely well is Junior Alvarado who

looks like he's picking up a lot of business from the riders that have headed

south. With David Cohen moving his tack to Kentucky and now Florida, the David

Jacobson business opened up and Junior Alvarado looks like he'll be the main

beneficiary during the winter. Alvarado wins an amazing 22 percent with his route mounts compared to 16

percent in sprints so the many two-turn events scheduled should be right up his

alley.

If you want a sprint jockey, you can do no better than veteran Cornelio

Velasquez who still wins 18 percent going short.

Three apprentice riders should play major roles at this year's inner dirt

track carnival. Jose Ortiz has been sensational the past two months and all the

big stables are using him. He's been getting business from Rick Dutrow Jr.,

among others. Wilmer Garcia has been steady as can be but the one to watch is Kieber Coa, who is the least experienced of the group but brings in longshots on

a regular basis and will only get better with more experience.

One thing that is conspicuously different this year is the absence of $7,500

claimers. Last year, there were three races run at that claiming level in the

first four days of racing. This year, there have been none and there were none

in the condition book or in the extras.

I know the first week is not necessarily what we are going to see the rest of

the winter but, with a few exceptions, the racing is exceedingly bad. I know that

one of the responses to last year's breakdowns was to decrease purses for

claiming horses to take away the incentive of entering anything that can walk

but bottom-level claimers are a staple of racing at any track. In fact, there

are very few straight claiming races carded the first week.

Based on what I am seeing, I don't see any way that Aqueduct can have nine

races a day, five days a week. I don't think the world will spin off its axis if

there are only eight races carded for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Filling

races for the sake of filling races not only results in bad racing but goes

against all the studies the industry has paid big money over the year which

found the public wants bigger fields even if it means fewer races.

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